This article was previously published in the Globe and Mail.

What a difference a decade makes – 2025 will mark the 10-year anniversary of the adoption of the landmark Paris Agreement, which established the current global framework to combat climate change.

Since the signing of the agreement, the world has made measurable progress, thanks in large part to government policy and market forces driving explosive growth in renewables, electric vehicles, and other clean technologies. Global emissions in 2030 are now expected to be 13 percentage points lower than before Paris. That’s important progress though still far from what’s needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

At the heart of the agreement is the requirement that signatories set their own emissions reduction commitments, as part of a nationally determined contribution (NDC), which charts each country’s “highest possible ambition” to slash emissions and limit dangerous global climate change. NDCs are updated every five years, with the next round due in February.

The stakes couldn’t be higher – this year is virtually certain to be the hottest on record globally and the first to pass 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels. In Canada, this has meant massive costs, with 2024 being the highest year by far for insured damages, reaching nearly $8-billion.

All that sets the stage for last week’s announcement that Canada has set its own 2035 target, meant to ratchet up national ambition alongside peer countries around the globe. The government committed to cutting emissions by 45 to 50 per cent below 2005 levels within the next decade.

How does that stack up internationally? At first glance, Canada’s target looks less ambitious than those already set or in consideration from our major trading partners.

But while peer-to-peer comparisons can serve as an important motivator for ramping up collective international action, targets should be rooted in what’s ambitious and achievable for each individual country.

While Canada’s 2030 target to reduce emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels is broadly aligned with its peers, the new 2035 target is less so. Many of Canada’s major trading partners are levelling-up their ambition for 2035.

The U.K. recently committed to an 81 per cent reduction by 2035 relative to 1990 levels. The EU is considering a target of reducing emissions by 90 per cent below 1990 levels by 2040, and member states like Germany have already enshrined in law 2040 targets at similar levels. Japan is eyeing a 60 per cent reduction below 2013 levels. And initial assessments by the climate councils in Australia and New Zealand, with legislated mandates to advise on targets, have suggested that 2035 targets of 65 to 75 per cent and up to 69 per cent below 2005 levels, respectively, would be ambitious but achievable.

While Canada’s new 2035 target puts the country near the bottom of the pack, the numbers only tell part of the story.

National climate commitments should also take into account each country’s unique emissions reduction opportunities and challenges. Ultimately, NDCs need to reflect a country’s highest possible ambition, recognizing that “ambition” is context-specific.

Earlier this year, our team at the Canadian Climate Institute was asked by the Net-Zero Advisory Body to evaluate options for Canada’s 2035 target to help inform their advice to the federal government. We evaluated six potential targets against a set of criteria to examine the trade-offs of more or less ambition by 2035, including impacts on affordability, competitiveness, economic growth, and emissions. At the high end, Canada’s new target range is roughly in line with the recommendations informed by that analysis. We found that a target in the 49 to 52 per cent range would strike a balance between ambition and achievability – delivering sustained emissions cuts while also balancing household affordability, economic growth, and the practicalities of policy implementation.

Ultimately, setting targets is only part of the equation. Delivering on them requires strong policies that can actually reduce emissions and support investment and jobs in the global energy transition, which continues to gather steam. While Canada has made progress on that front, governments at all levels need to build on the momentum and accelerate action to get the country on track for its 2030 and 2035 targets.

Levelling up Canada’s climate ambition and policy action is about more than emissions – it can help attract low-carbon investment, enhance Canada’s competitiveness, and protect against the increasingly real threat of carbon tariffs from our major trading partners.