OTTAWA — Canada’s emissions progress flatlined in 2024, according to the latest Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE) from 440 Megatonnes, a project of the Canadian Climate Institute. With emissions essentially unchanged from 2023, at 694 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt), the new data shows that previous years’ improvements have stalled.     

Further, emissions trends indicate Canada’s 2030 emissions reduction target is now out of reach given weakening policy momentum across the country. That’s despite years of disruptive and costly wildfires, extreme weather and other climate-related disasters that increasingly threaten Canadians’ security and drive up the cost of living.

The 2024 early estimate finds that Canada’s emissions remained just 8.5 per cent below 2005 levels, roughly the same level they were at in the previous year. While some sectors—including electricity and buildings—continued to cut emissions in 2024, progress was modest and more than countered by rising emissions from oil and gas, particularly oil sands production. Overall, oil and gas emissions rose 1.9 per cent and accounted for 31 per cent of the national total in 2024.

Emissions trends show Canada’s emissions are on track to be just 20 to 25 per cent below 2005 levels in 2030. This outcome falls far short of the legislated target of a 40 to 45 per cent reduction in emissions, and well below what could have been achieved if governments across the federation had implemented climate policies as announced. Achieving Canada’s 2030 target would require emissions reductions of roughly 40 Mt per year—well beyond current trends.

Recent federal and provincial policy setbacks have put Canada’s progress in tackling climate change and spurring low-carbon competitiveness in jeopardy. Setbacks include the repeal of the consumer carbon tax, delays to federal and provincial electric vehicle policies, and weakened industrial carbon pricing in several provinces. In addition, market trends—including the planned expansion of liquefied natural gas production—could further lock in emissions-intensive growth for years to come, putting even the 2035 target in peril.

Protecting Canadians from the damaging effects of climate change, and aligning Canada’s emissions with its international and legislated commitments will require a substantive policy reset by federal, provincial, and territorial governments. Shared policy priorities should include action to modernize industrial carbon pricing, finalization of new methane regulations for oil and gas, investment in clean electricity, and making cleaner fuels and vehicles more affordable and widely available, among others.

QUICK FACTS

• Canada’s emissions in 2024 are estimated at 694 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt), or 8.5 per cent below 2005 levels.
• Oil and gas: Emissions rose 1.9 per cent from the previous year, driven by a 3.4 per cent increase in oil sands emissions.
• Transportation: Emissions dropped 0.7 per cent, continuing a modest downward trend from 2023.
• Buildings: Emissions declined 1.2 per cent, a slower pace than the previous year due to a colder winter.
• Heavy industry: Emissions fell 1.2 per cent, showing signs of decarbonization progress despite uneven results across sub-sectors.
• Electricity: Emissions dropped 1.9 per cent to 59 per cent below 2005 levels, reinforcing the importance of coordinated federal and provincial policy and technology improvements.
• Climate change makes wildfires bigger, hotter, and more frequent. So far in 2025, wildfires have consumed a total area of 8.7 million hectares, over two and half times the size of Vancouver Island. Communities not typically known for wildfire activity, including in Atlantic Canada, now face record drought conditions and increasing fire risks.
• Damages from extreme weather events in 2024 shattered records for the costliest year in Canada, at more than $8.5 billion in insured losses.

QUOTES

“After yet another summer of terrible wildfires, extreme weather, and rising costs, Canadians would be right to expect their governments to take more action to fight climate change, not take their foot off the accelerator. Instead, the latest emissions data confirm that two decades of climate progress is in jeopardy without a policy reboot from governments right across the country. With emissions flatlining and important policies being scaled back, Canada’s 2030 target is now out of reach—and the longer we take to get back on track, the more Canadians will pay the price.”
 — Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“2025 is Canada’s fork in the road on climate. All the signals indicate Canada’s emissions momentum is going the wrong way as policy effort slows. After years of hard-won progress by federal, provincial, and territorial governments, emissions look set to return to growth, putting the 2030 target out of reach. The choices governments make this year will decide whether we lock in decline or drift upwards. As rising climate damages and looming Trump tariffs threaten our stability and competitiveness, Canada needs a thoughtful, longer-term cooperative approach to carbon policy across the federation.”
 — Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist, Canadian Climate Institute

RESOURCES

• Database | Early Estimate of National Emissions 2024
• Insight | Early estimate of 2024 emissions shows momentum shifting the wrong way, as policy effort slows
• Media Statement | As Parliament returns, protecting Canadians and our economy from climate change must be a top priority

MEDIA CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
(226) 212-9883
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca

440 Megatonnes is a project of the Canadian Climate Institute, Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. We produce rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research, and have experts available to comment on topics including: low-carbon competitiveness, the costs of climate-related disasters, Canada’s progress in reducing emissions, and policy priorities for the incoming federal government.