About the Energy Transition Technology Profile series: These profiles draw on, and update, the Institute’s analysis of specific safe-bet and wild-card technologies that are driving Canada’s clean energy transition.
Strengths and cautions
A proven, mature technology with a well-established supply chain.
The cheapest source of new electricity today in many jurisdictions.
A central pillar of Canada’s clean energy transition.
Slow project siting and approval processes.
What is onshore wind energy?
Onshore wind energy refers to commercial wind energy installations sited on land. These installations consist of relatively dense clusters of multi-megawatt wind turbines that are connected to electricity grids to produce power at large scale. Onshore wind is a proven, mature technology with a well-established global supply chain and a track record of more than a quarter century of reliable performance and falling costs.
In recent years, onshore wind installations have increased in scale as wind turbines have grown larger. The average wind turbine installed today has more than three times the generating capacity of one built 20 years ago. While wind is an inherently variable source of energy that doesn’t produce all the time, technology advancements have made wind generation much more efficient, generating electricity even in relatively low winds. The costs of onshore wind plummeted by more than 60 per cent between 2009 and 2023, making it the cheapest source of new electricity in many jurisdictions, despite its variability.
Why does it matter?
Onshore wind has already established itself as one of the workhorse technologies of modern electricity production. It is vital for decarbonizing electricity grids and producing enough clean electricity to meet growing demand. And it is already in use at commercial scale around the world, and continues to expand at record levels, with more than 100 gigawatts of wind energy capacity added worldwide in 2023.
Wind energy serves as a powerful engine for job creation and rural economic development in Canada. And projects provide excellent opportunities for industry partnerships with Indigenous communities, a number of which have already led to increased Indigenous ownership and development of energy resources on Indigenous lands. The 300-megawatt Henvey Inlet Wind project, for example, generates $10 million revenue each year for Henvey Inlet First Nation, with construction involving 1,200 workers and bringing $25 million in direct economic activity for local First Nation businesses.
Canada is already a significant player in the onshore wind business, both in terms of production on domestic grids and development for both domestic and international markets. Canada boasts the eighth-largest total installed wind capacity in the world, at more than 18 gigawatts. That amount grew by 11 per cent in 2023, with 1.7 gigawatts of new wind power coming online nationwide—more than 90 per cent of it in Alberta.
Onshore wind will be a vital tool as grids expand to meet increasing electricity demand across the country. It will also be crucial for achieving Canada’s climate goals. Other jurisdictions have demonstrated that a rapid pace of growth is possible—the state of Texas, for example, tripled its installed onshore wind generating capacity from 2014 to 2023, driven largely by tax incentives and the high quality of the resource across the state.
Although Canada’s grids do not yet have large enough shares of wind power for variability to be a significant challenge to manage, this issue will eventually become a larger one for the industry. However, there are numerous tools to add flexibility to grids and balance wind’s variability, and these options will become easier and easier to integrate in the years to come. They include battery storage, firm power sources such as existing hydro and natural gas plants, demand-side management, and stronger interconnections between grids.
Onshore wind can fit well with existing electricity systems, playing a complementary role with other clean sources on Canada’s grids. Onshore wind balances well with solar power, both in seasonal terms (solar resources being more plentiful in summer and wind resources more profuse in winter) and day to day (with wind resources usually at their best at night). And the intermittency of wind and solar pairs well with dispatchable large-scale hydro power in the provinces that have it in abundance—and through grid interties in those that don’t.
Is it a safe bet or wild card?
Onshore wind, as a major supplier of variable renewable energy, is a safe bet. It employs proven technology and is already being used at commercial scale in Canada and beyond. And wind power capacity is growing everywhere—both in response to climate policy and because it is so low in cost.
Wind power is poised to grow significantly, both in Canada and around the world, in the years to come. Plans for 36 gigawatts of new renewable energy to be built by 2030 are already in development across Canada. Hydro-Quebec’s recently unveiled action plan calls for 8 gigawatts in new onshore wind capacity by 2030, tripling the total in Quebec alone. Globally, supplies of wind energy are expected to overtake nuclear power by 2025, according to the IEA.
A main driver of this growth in onshore wind is an already strong economic case growing stronger. A 2023 report published by Clean Energy Canada found that new onshore wind installations in Alberta and Ontario would cost five cents per kilowatt-hour, whereas new gas-fired generation in the same provinces can range between 15 to 23 cents, depending on the plant type.
What challenges must it overcome?
There are no technological barriers in the way of rapidly accelerating Canada’s onshore wind energy capacity. And it is already the most cost-effective source of new electricity generation in much of the country, even without factoring in the carbon price on fossil fuel generation.
But onshore wind faces hurdles to faster deployment. On the regulatory side, project siting and approval processes remain prohibitively cumbersome and slow. And large-scale onshore wind developments can also sometimes face significant local resistance. This is particularly common in jurisdictions where onshore wind has emerged quickly, owing in part to the sheer size and prominence of the turbines on the landscape.
Experiences to date with social disapproval of onshore wind—including in Ontario under the province’s Green Energy Act—underscore the need for project developers and policymakers to directly address community concerns and demonstrate benefits with clear, open communication as early in the development process as possible.
What are the next steps for policy makers?
Government’s primary role in accelerating onshore wind development is to streamline approval, permitting, and other regulatory processes with the intent of getting projects built faster. Because electricity projects are primarily under provincial control, the policy needs vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, but in general the regulations regarding siting and permitting a new onshore wind installation tend to be overly complex and time-consuming. This is a hindrance not only to achieving climate goals but also to attracting new investment and jobs in an increasingly competitive global investment climate.
Provincial governments can assist in accelerating onshore wind’s growth by developing clear energy roadmaps for aligning their energy systems with their climate goals, with accelerating planning and development processes as a priority. Provincial policies can also ensure meaningful local consultation and community benefits from onshore wind projects, while creating a predictable policy landscape and clear processes for developers.
Clarity and long-term certainty in regulations—including a predictable mechanism such as industrial carbon pricing or a large-emitter trading system—are vital to de-risk the investments needed to expand Canada’s onshore wind production. Governments should also consider incentives for both commercial-scale energy storage and demand-side management (from smart meters to smart grids), both of which make variable renewable energy sources like onshore wind more efficient and economical.
Wind power capacity in Canada, 2007-2022, in megawatts (Natural Resources Canada)
Generation from onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar, Global Net Zero Scenario (Canada’s Energy Future 2023)
Profile text by Chris Turner.
