Experts estimate modest drop in 2023 emissions, with big differences across sectors

OTTAWA—The latest Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE) from the Canadian Climate Institute shows a modest improvement in national emissions in 2023, with a drop of about 1 per cent from 2022 levels. Progress was uneven across sectors, with electricity showing large drops in emissions while oil and gas emissions rose.  

The independent estimate finds Canada’s emissions now sit at 8 per cent below 2005 levels, the baseline year for Canada’s 2030 emissions target of a 40 to 45 per cent reduction. Strong economic growth in 2023 pushed emissions up by 8.6 Mt CO2e from the previous year. However, the impact of climate policy and changing markets, including accelerating clean energy technology deployment, succeeded in reducing emissions by 14.2 Mt, resulting in an overall net decrease of 5.6 Mt.

At a sectoral level, oil and gas continued a long-standing trend of steadily rising emissions—up 1 per cent or 2.2 megatonnes (Mt) from 2022—and now makes up 31 per cent of Canada’s national total. 

By contrast, emissions from the electricity sector continued to drop, and now sit 62 per cent lower than they were in 2005. 

A slight rise in emissions from transport (+1.6 per cent; +2.5 Mt) was driven by higher domestic aviation activity, whereas buildings saw a drop in emissions (-5.6 per cent; -4.9 Mt) primarily due to a warmer El Niño year that was supercharged by climate change. 

In total, Canada emitted 702 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt) in 2023, down 5.6 Mt from 2022, the estimate finds. 

Research from the Canadian Climate Institute has previously shown the significant impact climate policy is having cutting carbon pollution—progress that is expected to be more pronounced the longer those policies are in effect. Canada’s emissions would be higher today without the actions taken to date by all levels of government since 2015 and rising to 41 per cent higher by 2030. Put another way, existing climate policies are expected to prevent 226 Mt of carbon emissions by 2030, equivalent to the current emissions profiles of Quebec and Ontario combined. Following through and finalizing developing and announced policies will deliver even deeper emissions cuts by 2030. 

Yet Canada must build momentum to achieve its 2030 target and support future competitiveness in the global energy transition. The Institute has recommended all orders of government, including provinces and territories, quickly implement previously announced emission-reduction policies, strengthen existing ones, and introduce new measures.

QUOTES

“Once again, progress in Canada’s emissions reductions is starkly different across sectors. Governments right across the country need to accelerate developing policy and strengthen measures already in place, like electrification and industrial carbon pricing systems.” 

— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“Our early estimate shows that rising oil and gas and transportation emissions are offsetting gains made in electricity and buildings, slowing Canada’s climate progress. While decoupling emissions from economic growth is a good sign, this is a long game—governments need to build momentum and set strong policy foundations for lasting climate progress.”

—Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist, Canadian Climate Institute

RESOURCES

CONTACT 

Catharine Tunnacliffe
Communications Director
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883
ctunnacliffe@climateinstitute.ca

FACT SHEET: Climate change and flooding

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In August 2024, the remnants of Hurricane Debby brought record-breaking floods to Quebec, inundating 55 communities. Just a month before, nearly 10 centimetres of rain fell in Toronto in three hours, overwhelming the city’s infrastructure and flooding many homes and businesses. And in November 2021, an atmospheric river unleashed record-breaking rain in British Columbia, triggering landslides and floods that caused extensive damage, cutting off main access routes to several areas of the province, severely impairing the economy.

As climate change worsens, Canadians will experience a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of these kinds of flood events. Warmer air, caused by increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, holds more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall and more intense storms. This, combined with melting snow packs, rising sea levels, and changing weather patterns, has created the conditions for more severe and unpredictable flooding. These floods are devastating for communities, economies, and livelihoods.

Climate change is driving increasingly severe and frequent floods

  • Because of climate change, most regions in the country will experience increased rainfall,  higher extreme rainfall, and increased severity in coastal storms (Zhang et al. 2019; Vasseur et al. 2017).
  • Research shows that climate change intensifies many contributing factors that combine to elevate flood risk, including heavier rainfall and storm surges amplified by sea level rise (Denchak 2023; Greenan et al. 2019).
  • Climate heating means that warmer air can hold more water than cooler air, increasing the risk of heavier and more extreme rainfall events. More rain is likely to fall in short, intense bursts rather than being spread out over a longer period (Westra et al. 2014). 
  • Increasingly frequent and severe short-duration rainfall events increase the likelihood of flash floods, especially in urban areas, by overwhelming storm sewers and drainage systems (Westra et al. 2014; Sandink 2015; Brown et al. 2021).
  • Parts of southern British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces have seen an increase of two to three heavy rainfall days per year on average (Zhang et al. 2019; Vincent et al. 2018).
  • Climate models project that by the end of the century, an extreme rainfall event that now occurs once every 20 years in Canada could happen every five years, and the amount of 24-hour extreme precipitation that occurs once in 20 years, on average, is projected to increase by 12 per cent (Zhang et al. 2019).

Floods can severely damage homes and infrastructure, costing billions of dollars

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

More frequent and intense floods put people and communities at risk

  • Heavy rainfall events can overwhelm small drinking water treatment systems, degrading water quality and increasing the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks (Wang et al. 2018).  
  • Over half of the waterborne disease outbreaks in the past 50 years in the United States occurred after episodes of extreme rainfall (Charron et al. 2011).
  • Floods can be fatal, as people drown while wading or driving through flood waters or are trapped in flooded buildings (Government of Canada 2021).
  • Injuries are common during and after floods due to swiftly moving heavy objects, damaged electrical wiring and appliances, and the risk of hypothermia from cold floodwater (Government of Canada 2021).
  • The psychosocial impacts of flooding are significant, increasing family conflicts, financial stress, and feelings of isolation. In some cases, flooding can trigger or exacerbate mental health conditions such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (Glenn and Myre 2022).
  • A few months after the Quebec floods of 2019, 44 per cent of those affected had moderate to high symptoms of post-traumatic stress, 21 per cent had symptoms of anxiety disorders, and 20 per cent had developed mood disorders (Institut national de santé publique du Québec 2024).
  • Flooded buildings are quickly colonized by mold, fungi, and bacteria, which can cause or aggravate skin, allergy, eye, respiratory, and gastrointestinal problems such as asthma, conjunctivitis, and otitis (Institut national de santé publique du Québec 2024).

Governments can act to protect communities from worsening flood risk

  • Flooding will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere continues to increase. Government action to manage this growing risk and limit further emissions is essential.
  • Because the impacts of climate change on flooding are already here and getting worse from the emissions that have already occurred, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased risk of floods today and into the future.
  • Some of the key adaptation actions governments can take to reduce flood risk and protect communities include:
    • Shifting development away from high-risk flood zones: To prevent placing more homes in harm’s way, provincial and municipal governments could restrict building in areas with high flood risk. In moderate-risk zones or areas prone to urban flooding, it’s essential to flood-proof new developments to minimize water damage (World Bank 2017).
    • Enhancing flood protection infrastructure at the community level: Investing in new and improved flood protection infrastructure, such as levees, floodwalls, and nature-based solutions, can cost-effectively safeguard communities at risk of flooding (Ness et al. 2021).
    • Support proactive relocation from high-risk areas: In a few areas where flood risk is too high to provide adequate protection, governments should engage with homeowners and communities to consider proactive relocation, offering appropriate assistance and incentives for moving to safer areas (Public Safety Canada 2022).

References and resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
  • Sarah Miller is Research Lead in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Pacific Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé

Communications and Media Relations Specialist
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525 

This summer’s climate-fuelled disasters have cost Canadians billions

OTTAWA, 4 September 2024 —The financial toll from this year’s two biggest extreme weather disasters have already surpassed $1.8 billion, counting only insured losses, according to a new online tool created by the Canadian Climate Institute. A single afternoon of heavy rain in Toronto caused flooding that may wind up costing almost $1 billion. The wildfire that destroyed parts of Jasper will cost at least $880 million in insured losses alone. This new tool, accessible at ClimateChangeCosts.ca, tracks estimates of the financial impact of climate-related disasters and extreme weather across the country. It will be updated in real time as these sorts of events continue to become more common.  

Because the impacts of climate change are difficult to calculate and slow to tally, the costs on the map present only a fraction of the damages from recent extreme weather and climate-fuelled disasters. Costs from weather-related events such as the recent flooding in Montreal and the 2024 wildfire season will be added as more data becomes available. 

Canada has already warmed 1.7 degrees since 1948 due to the release of heat-trapping pollution, faster than the global average. Nine out of the ten costliest years for insured damages from extreme weather in Canada have occurred since 2011, adding up to more than $27 billion in insured losses, according to the Insurance Bureau of Canada.

A 2022 Climate Institute report showed how climate change is eroding economic growth at both the national and sector levels, straining government budgets, reducing household income, and damaging Canada’s competitiveness. Economic damage from climate change is expected to cost the Canadian economy an estimated $25 billion by 2025—that’s equal to half a year’s projected growth. 

Proactive adaptation measures and policies can limit the damages from the impacts of climate change, however. Institute research finds that such measures and policies can cut future costs in half, saving billions of dollars, and making life more affordable for households. A dollar invested in proactive adaptation measures, the Institute has found, can return $13-$15 in direct and indirect benefits. And if adaptation measures are combined with global emissions reductions, future costs could be reduced by three-quarters, putting Canada on a path to a more stable and affordable future.

The interactive map currently features reports from the past 12 months, and will be updated regularly as more costs are reported. While Canada does not yet have the capacity to analyze the contribution of climate change to all extreme weather, the map provides a clear and growing picture of how floods, wildfires and other events are increasingly straining Canada’s economy.

QUOTES

“Climate change has a direct negative impact on our budgets and bank accounts. Failing to grasp the economic threat posed by climate change has led many Canadians and decision-makers to drastically underestimate both the economic benefits of climate policies and the cost of failing to act. This map spotlights the financial risks we face and sounds the alarm on the need for immediate measures to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and better prepare Canadian communities for the impacts of climate change.” — Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“Canada’s climate is changing and everyone, everywhere, is experiencing the effects. The economy is highly sensitive to this threat, and we estimate that the average Canadian household currently loses at least $700 each year due to climate-related costs. We need to reckon with the price tag for these massive disasters and do everything we can to control the damage. As our new interactive map shows, the costs of extreme weather events, which we know are exacerbated by climate change, are measurable and mounting.” – Ryan Ness, Adaptation Research Director, Canadian Climate Institute

RESOURCES

CONTACT 

Claudine Brulé

Communications and Media Relations Specialist

(514) 358-8525

cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

FACT SHEET: Climate change and heat waves

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Climate change, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, is causing more frequent and intense heat waves (ClimateData.ca 2024). These heat waves are threatening the safety, well-being, and prosperity of Canadians—even in cities that have historically had more moderate climates, such as Vancouver, Whitehorse, and Halifax.

Globally, 2024 was the hottest year on record, and the past ten years were the ten warmest years on record (World Meteorological Organization 2025). Canada, which is warming faster than anywhere else on earth, is suffering the consequences of the overheating climate (McBean 2024).

Climate change fuels heat waves

  • Climate change increases the frequency of extreme heat, and makes heat waves hotter, longer, and more widespread (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2025; Borenstein 2024; Hagemann 2018).
  • Canada is warming twice as fast as the global average, and Canada’s Arctic is warming nearly four times as fast (Government of Canada 2019; Rantanen et al. 2022). 
  • Climate projections show that by the second half of this century, many Canadian cities will see at least four times as many +30°C days per year on average compared to historical data (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.).
  • The June 2024 heat wave that struck central and Eastern Canada was two to 10 times more likely due to climate change, with temperatures over 10 degrees higher than normal in parts of Quebec and Atlantic Canada (Shingler 2024).

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

Climate-fuelled heat makes wildfires worse  

  • Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions (high temperatures, low humidity, and drought conditions) in Eastern Canada in 2023, and made Québec’s season 50 per cent more intense (World Weather Attribution 2023). 
  • Heat waves make it easier for wildfires to start and spread by increasing the likelihood of lightning strikes, the primary cause of wildfires (Pérez-Invernón et al. 2023). They also dry out vegetation, making it more flammable (Natural Resources Canada 2024).
  • During the 2021 heat wave in B.C., the number of active wildfires rose from six to 175, consuming nearly 79,000 hectares, including the entire town of Lytton (White et al. 2023).
  • For more information on climate change and wildfires, please see our wildfires fact sheet.

Climate-fuelled extreme heat is causing rising death rates and health issues across Canada

  • A study in Nature found that between 1981 and 2018, 37 per cent of heat-related deaths globally were attributable to climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021). This increased mortality is evident on every continent. 
  • Health risks from extreme heat include cardiovascular events, respiratory conditions, kidney disease, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and mental health impacts such as increased anxiety, depression, and aggressive behavior (Bell et. al 2024).
  • Elevated death rates have been documented during and following heat waves in Canada (Government of Canada 2024).  The 2021 heat wave caused an estimated 619 heat-related deaths, making it the deadliest disaster in B.C.’s recorded history (BC Coroners Service 2022). 
  • Our research shows that without action on adaptation and health system preparation, B.C. could average 1,370 heat-related deaths per year by 2030 (Beugin et al. 2023).
  • Scientists found that the 2021 B.C. heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change (Philip et al. 2022).
  • A 2024 study concluded that elevated summer temperatures in Québec are linked to 470 deaths, 225 hospitalizations, 36,000 emergency room visits, 7,200 ambulance transports, and 15,000 calls to Info-Santé every year. 
  • With climate change, the number of heat-related illnesses and deaths could double or even quadruple in the province by 2050 (Boudreault et al. 2024). 

The economic burden of climate-fuelled extreme heat is growing

  • Our 2021 report The Health Costs of Climate Change projected that the costs of heat-related deaths and reduced quality of life from extreme heat in Canada would range from $3 billion to $3.9 billion per year by mid-century (Clark et al. 2021). 
  • Our analysis shows that the 2021 heat wave in B.C. caused $12 million in additional healthcare costs, and that the societal costs from premature deaths were $5.5 billion (Beugin et al., 2023).
  • Canada’s manufacturing sector alone could see annual losses of $1-2 billion by 2050, due to the productivity impacts of heat waves on the workforce (Clark et al. 2021).
  • Our 2021 report Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure estimated that by mid-century, annual heat-driven damage to roads and railways could increase by over $5 billion and damage to electricity infrastructure could increase by over $1 billion (Ness et al., 2021). 

Governments can act to protect communities and slow further warming

  • Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022).
  • Governments must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming, while adapting and preparing for the health and safety risks from extreme heat.
  • Adaptation strategies can improve outcomes for the most vulnerable populations, including the elderly, children, people with chronic illness, and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups (Health Canada 2011). 
  • Effective adaptation strategies include:
    • Installing indoor cooling devices like heat pumps or air conditioning, and planting green roofs and trees for shade. Our analysis shows these could reduce heat-related deaths and hospitalization 12 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in B.C. by the 2030s (Beugin et al. 2023). 
    • Providing employers and the public with information on how to stay safe during extreme heat waves.
    • Sending early heat warnings to allow people, communities and responders to prepare.
    • Designing infrastructure to withstand extreme heat and rainfall, potentially reducing damage costs by 80 per cent by the end of the century, or up to $3.1 billion each year (Ness et al. 2021).
    • Regulating maximum indoor temperatures in rental housing to protect tenants from extreme heat (Lawton 2025).

Resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Cost of Climate Change series. Ryan est également disponible pour des entretiens en français.  (Eastern Time, English and French).

For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé
Communications and Media Relations Specialist
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525 

References

BC Coroners Service. 2022. Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. June 7. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/birth-adoption-death-marriage-and-divorce/deaths/coroners-service/death-review-panel/extreme_heat_death_review_panel_report.pdf  

Bell, Michelle L., Antonio Gasparrini, and Georges C. Benjamin. 2024. “Climate Change, Extreme Heat, and Health” eds. Caren G. Solomon and Renee N. Salas. New England Journal of Medicine 390(19): 1793–1801. doi:10.1056/NEJMra2210769.

Beugin, Dale, Dylan Clark, Sarah Miller, Ryan Ness, Ricardo Pelai, and Janna Wale. 2023. The case for adapting to extreme heat: Costs of the 2021 B.C. heat wave. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/extreme-heat-in-canada/ 

Borenstein, Seth. 2024. “Study says since 1979 climate change has made heat waves last longer, spike hotter, hurt more people.” Associated Press, March 29. https://apnews.com/article/heat-wave-climate-change-worsen-hotter-797aae046df8165f5f8be7d3f40a8b74   

Boudreault, Jérémie, Éric Lavigne, Céline Campagna, and Fateh Chebana. 2024. “Estimating the heat-related mortality and morbidity burden in the province of Quebec, Canada.” Environmental Research, September 14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2024.119347 

Bratu, Andreea, Kiffer G. Card, Kalysha Closson, Niloufar Aran, Carly Marshall, Susan Clayton, Maya K. Gislason, Hasina Samji, Gina Martin, Melissa Lem, Carmen H. Logie, Tim K. Takaro, and Robert S. Hogg. 2022. “The 2021 Western North American heat dome increased climate change anxiety among British Columbians: Results from a natural experiment.” The Journal of Climate Change and Health, May. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278222000050 

Clark, Dylan, Ryan Ness, Dena Coffman, and Dale Beugin. 2021. The Health Costs of Climate Change: How Canada Can Adapt, Prepare, and Save Lives. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/the-health-costs-of-climate-change/ 

Clarke, Ben, and Friederike Otto. 2024. “Reporting extreme weather and climate change: A guide of journalists.” World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/reporting-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-a-guide-for-journalists/ 

Climate Atlas of Canada. (n.d.) Urban Heat Island Effect. Prairie Climate Centre. https://climateatlas.ca/urban-heat-island-effect 

Climate Atlas of Canada. 2024. “Heath impacts of extreme heat.” https://climateatlas.ca/health-impacts-extreme-heat 

ClimateData.ca. 2024. “Heat waves and climate change.” https://climatedata.ca/resource/heat-waves-and-climate-change/ 

Communicating the Health Risks of Extreme Heat Events: Toolkit for Public Health and Emergency Management Officials. 2011. Ottawa, Ontario: Health Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/environmental-workplace-health/reports-publications/climate-change-health/communicating-health-risks-extreme-heat-events-toolkit-public-health-emergency-management-officials-health-canada-2011.html

Environment and Climate Change Canada (2025) Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators: Extreme heat events. Consulted on Month day, year.  Available at: www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/extreme-heatevents.html  

Government of Canada. 2019. “Canada’s climate is warming twice as fast as global average.” Press release. April 2.  https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2019/04/canadas-climate-is-warming-twice-as-fast-as-global-average.html 

Government of Canada. 2024. “Extreme heat events: Overview.” May 7. https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/climate-change-health/extreme-heat.html 

Hagemann, Hannah. 2018. “Northern Hemisphere Heat Waves Covering More Area than Before.” https://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2018/12/20/northern-hemisphere-heat-waves-covering-more-area-than-before/.

Henderson, Sarah B., Kathleen E. McLean, Michael J. Lee, and Tom Kosatsky. 2021. “Extreme heat events are public health emergencies.” BC Medical Journal, November. 

International Labour Organization. 2024. Ensuring safety and health at work in a changing climate. April 22. https://www.ilo.org/publications/ensuring-safety-and-health-work-changing-climate 

IPCC, 2022. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press. https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844   

Kirchmeier-Young, Megan, N. P. Gillett, F. W. Zwiers, A. J. Cannon, and F. S. Anslow. 2019. “Attribution of the influence of human-induced climate change on an extreme fire season.” Earth’s Future, January. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001050 

Lawton, Betsy. 2025. “Home Cooling Policies Can Combat Health Impacts of Extreme Heat, But Should Be Paired with Strategies to Reduce Unintended Consequences.” https://www.networkforphl.org/news-insights/home-cooling-policies-can-combat-health-impacts-of-extreme-heat-but-should-be-paired-with-strategies-to-reduce-unintended-consequences/.

McBean, Gordon. 2024. “2023 was the hottest year in history — and Canada is warming faster than anywhere else on earth.” The Conversation, January 11. https://theconversation.com/2023-was-the-hottest-year-in-history-and-canada-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-else-on-earth-220997 

Natural Resources Canada. 2024a. “Canada’s record-breaking wildfires in 2023: A fiery wake-up call.” May 21. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/simply-science/canadas-record-breaking-wildfires-2023-fiery-wake-call/25303 

Ness, Ryan, Dylan G. Clark, Julien Bourque, Dena Coffman, and Dale Beugin. 2021. Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/under-water/ 

Parisien, Marc-André, Quinn E. Barber, Mathieu L. Bourbonnais, Lori D. Daniels, Mike D. Flannigan, Robert W. Gray, Kira M. Hoffman, Piyush Jain, Scott L. Stephens, Steve W. Taylor, and Ellen Whitman. 2023. “Abrupt, climate-induced increase in wildfires in British Columbia since the mid-2000s.” Communications Earth & Environment, September 5. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00977-1 

Pérez-Invernón, F.J., F.J. Gordillo-Vázquez, H.  Huntrieser,  et al. “Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change.” Nature Communications  14, 739 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5

Philip, Sjoukje Y., Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, et al. 2022. “Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021.” Earth System Dynamics, December 8. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1689/2022/  

PreparedBC. 2024. “Extreme heat preparedness guide.” Government of British Columbia. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/public-safety-and-emergency-services/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/embc/preparedbc/preparedbc-guides/preparedbc_extreme_heat_guide.pdf 

Rantanen, Mika, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Antti Lipponen, et al. 2022. “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979.” Commun Earth Environ 3, 168. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 

Shingler, Benjamin. 2024. “Canada draws link between June heat wave and climate change with new attribution analysis.” CBC, July 9. https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/canada-eccc-rapid-attribution-heat-1.7257456 

Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., N. Scovronick, F. Sera, et al. 2021. “The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.” Nature Climate Change, May 31. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x 

White, Rachel H., Sam Anderson, et al. 2023. “The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021.” Nature Communications, February 9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36289-3 

World Meteorological Organization. 2023. “Climate change and heatwaves.” September 21. https://wmo.int/content/climate-change-and-heatwaves 

World Meteorological Organization. 2025. “WMO confirms 2024 as warmest year on record at about 1.55°C above pre-industrial level” January 10. https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-warmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level

World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/

FACT SHEET: Climate change and wildfires

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Accelerating climate change, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, makes wildfires bigger, hotter, and more frequent (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.). With Canada warming twice as fast as the global average (Government of Canada 2019), and home to more than a quarter of the world’s boreal forests, the country is experiencing this consequence of global heating firsthand. Canada experienced its most destructive wildfire season ever in 2023, with fires consuming 16.5 million hectares—more than double the previous record and nearly seven times more than the historical average (Natural Resources Canada 2024). 

In 2024, wildfires continued to devastate the country, becoming the sixth-most destructive season on record, with over 5.3 million hectares burned. Notably, the Jasper wildfire in Alberta destroyed one-third of the town’s structures and was among the most expensive natural disasters in Canadian history, with insured damages estimated to be $1.23 billion (Insurance Bureau of Canada, 2025).

Our research finds that to keep Canadians safe, governments must play both defence and offence—protecting people and ecosystems while accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels to limit further heating (Sawyer et al. 2022).

Climate change makes wildfires worse

  • While forest fires are naturally occurring disturbances that contribute to the health and renewal of many forest ecosystems (Canadian Council of Forest Ministers 2019), fires are burning hotter and wilder as the climate warms, causing much greater destruction. 
  • Wildfire activity is increasingly frequent across Canada (Hanes et al. 2018). The area burned in 2023 was more than six times the historical average (Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre 2024).
  • Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada in 2023 (World Weather Attribution 2023). 
  • An overheating climate is making Canadian summers hotter and windier, with more erratic rainfall, including less summer rain in some regions (Bush and Lemmen 2019; Gifford et al. 2022). 
  • Fire season is starting earlier, is lasting longer, and is harder to contain (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.; Natural Resources Canada 2024b; Natural Resources Canada 2022). Zombie fires are even beginning to smoulder through the winter (Shingler 2024).
  • Lighting strikes become more frequent as the climate warms (McKabe 2023). Ninety-three per cent of the area burned in Canada in 2023 was from fires ignited by lightning; only 7 per cent by human-ignition (Jain et al. 2024).
  • Elevated wildfire risk means that, whatever the cause, fires catch, spread, and get out of control much more easily.

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

Wildfires are damaging people’s health and wellbeing 

  • The smoke from wildfires can spread thousands of kilometres (NASA Earth Observatory 2015), requiring school closures and causing other disruptions while threatening the health of millions of people (Lin 2023), particularly children, seniors, and people with heart or lung disease. 
  • Hot-burning wildfires release dangerous levels of particulate matter into the air, which is associated with an increased risk of issues like heart disease, cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, and brain cancer (Egyed et al. 2022; Korsiak et al. 2022).
  • Heavy smoke takes a significant toll on the Canadian healthcare system. A single week of wildfire smoke in June 2023 was estimated to have cost Ontario over $1.2 billion (Sawyer et al. 2023) in health impacts such as premature deaths, increased hospital visits, and health emergencies.
  • Poor air quality from smoke hits the most vulnerable the hardest (Government of Canada, 2022). The impacts of smoke are even more serious for groups like children, seniors, pregnant people, and those who work outdoors. 
  • Smoke from larger and more frequent wildfires is exacerbating asthma across parts of Western Canada (Matz et al. 2020), and the aftermath of climate-related fires and floods takes a significant toll on mental health (Belleville et al. 2019). 
  • Wildfires can destroy homes and communities, devastate fragile ecosystems, and threaten economic security. These effects have been linked to post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, and suicidal thoughts (Hayes et al. 2022).

Worsening wildfires are making life more expensive

  • Wildfires can destroy property, homes, and entire communities, driving up insurance costs and making life more expensive (Gerety 2024; Vaillant 2024). 
  • The cost of wildfire protection has risen by about $150 million per decade since the 1970s (Government of Canada 2024). These costs exceeded $1 billion for six of the last 10 years.
  • The 2016 wildfire in Fort McMurray, Alberta, cost an estimated $9 billion in direct and indirect physical, financial, health, and environmental impacts (Alam et al. 2019). It triggered the largest evacuation in Canadian history, destroying more than 2,400 structures and displacing 85,000 people.
  • Wildfires impact key sectors of the economy, including the forest industry, one of Canada’s largest employers (Lindsay and Pelai 2024). Wildfires can disrupt forestry operations and reduce the amount of timber available, hurting workers and forest-dependent communities in the process. During the 2017 wildfires in British Columbia, 40 forestry companies were temporarily shut down (Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy 2019).
  • The accumulating impacts of global heating, including bigger and more frequent wildfires, are raising the cost of living in Canada from lost jobs, reduced economic activity, and tax hikes to pay for disaster recovery and infrastructure repairs. The additional climate change impacts between 2015 and 2025 alone will cost the average household $700 per year, and will continue to increase moving forward (Sawyer et al. 2022).

Governments can act to protect communities and slow further heating

  • Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.
  • Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased fire risks today.
  • Federal and provincial governments can promote fire resilience by limiting development in areas at high risk of wildfires, strengthening building codes and regulations (for example, building with fire-resistant materials), and improving forest and vegetation management through prescribed burns and other measures to help reduce fuel available to burn near at-risk communities (Bénichou et al. 2021).
  • Alberta and British Columbia’s FireSmart programs are examples of initiatives that help communities and individuals reduce their fire risk (FireSmart Alberta 2024; FireSmart B.C. 2024).

Indigenous Peoples are disproportionately impacted, and leading on solutions

  • Indigenous communities in Canada have used controlled fire as traditional land management practice since time immemorial. Supporting these cultural burning practices can help reduce the risk of out-of-control wildfires (BC Wildfire Service 2022). 
  • Eighty per cent of majority-Indigenous communities in Canada are located in fire-prone regions (Asfaw et al. 2019).
  • More than 42 per cent of wildfire evacuations have been from majority-Indigenous communities (Webber and Berger 2023).
  • Between 1980 and 2021 in Canada, 16 communities (Christianson et al. 2024) were evacuated five or more times, and all but two of those were First Nations reserves.

Resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
  • Sarah Miller is Research Lead in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Pacific Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé
Communications and Media Relations Specialist
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525 

References

Alam, Rafat, Shahidul Islam, Eric Mosely, Sean Thomas, Virginia Dowdell, Dawn Doel. 2019. Rapid Impact Assessment of Fort McMurray Wildfire. Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction and MacEwan University. https://www.iclr.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Rapid-Impact-Assessment-of-Fort-McMurray-Wildfire.pdf

Asfaw, Henok Workeye, Sandy Lake First Nation, Tara K. McGee, and Amy Cardinal Christianson. 2019. “A qualitative study exploring barriers and facilitators of effective service delivery for Indigenous wildfire hazard evacuees during their stay in host communities.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 41, 101300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101300

BC Wildfire Service. 2022. “How cultural burning enhances landscapes and lives.” May 5. https://blog.gov.bc.ca/bcwildfire/how-cultural-burning-enhances-landscapes-and-lives/ 

Bénichou, Noureddine, Masoud Adelzadeh, Jitender Singh, Islam Gomaa, Nour Elsagan, Max Kinateder, Chunyun Ma, Abhishek Gaur, Alex Bwalya, and Mohamed Sultan. 2021. National Guide for Wildland-Urban Interface Fires. National Research Council Canada. https://doi.org/10.4224/40002647

Belleville, Genevieve, Marie-Christine Ouellet, and Charles M. Morin. 2019. “Post-traumatic stress among evacuees from the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires: exploration of psychological and sleep symptoms three months after the evacuation.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(9), 1604. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16091604

Bush, E., and D. S. Lemmen, editors. 2019. Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/ 

Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 2019. “Natural Disturbances.” https://www.ccfm.org/healthy-forests/natural-disturbances/ 

Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. 2024. “Wildfire Graphs: Annual area burned in Canada.” https://ciffc.net/statistics 

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. 2024. “Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts.” Natural Resources Canada. https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/forecasts 

Christianson, Amy Cardinal, Lynn M. Johnston, Jacqueline A. Oliver, David Watson, David Young, Heather MacDonald, John Little, Bruce Macnab, and Noemie Gonzalez Bautista. 2024. “Wildland fire evacuations in Canada from 1980 to 2021.” International Journal of Wildland Fire, 33(7). https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23097

Clarke, Ben, and Friederike Otto. 2024. “Reporting extreme weather and climate change: A guide of journalists.” World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/reporting-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-a-guide-for-journalists/ 

Climate Action Against Disinformation. Flame Wars: Misinformation and Wildfire in Canada’s Climate Conversation. June 11. https://caad.info/analysis/reports/flame-wars-misinformation-and-wildfire-in-canadas-climate-conversation/ 

Climate Atlas of Canada. n.d. “Forest Fires and Climate Change.” https://climateatlas.ca/forest-fires-and-climate-change 

Egyed, Marika, Phil Blagden, et al. 2022. “Air Quality.” In P. Berry & R. Schnitter (Eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada.

FireSmart Alberta. 2024. “About FireSmart Alberta.” https://firesmartalberta.ca/about/

FireSmart B.C. 2024. “About FireSmart B.C.” https://firesmartbc.ca/

Gerety, Rowan Moore. “How does a tiny mountain town, burned to the ground, come back.” New York Times, March 12. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/travel/lytton-fire-canada.html 

Gifford, Robert, Craig Brown, Carrie Baron, Denni Clement, Natalya Melnychuk, Harry Nelson, Luke Sales, and Dave Spittlehouse. 2022. British Columbia Chapter in Canada in a Changing Climate: Regional Perspectives Report. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/regional-perspectives/chapter/5-0/ 

Government of Canada. 2019. “Canada’s climate is warming twice as fast as global average.” Press release. April 2. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2019/04/canadas-climate-is-warming-twice-as-fast-as-global-average.html 

Government of Canada. 2024. “Cost of Wildland Fire Protection.” May 13. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/cost-fire-protection/17783 

Hanes, Chelene C., Xianli Wang, Piyush Jain, Marc-André Parisien, John M. Little, and Mike D. Flannigan. 2019. “Fire-regime changes in Canada over the last half century.” Canadian Journal of Forest Research, November 16. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2018-0293

Hayes, Katie, Ashley Cunsolo, et al. 2022. “Mental Health and Well-Being.” In P. Berry & R. Schnitter (Eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada.

IPCC, 2022. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press. https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844 

Jain, Piyush, Quinn E. Barber, Steve Taylor, et al. 2024. Canada Under Fire: Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season. ESS Open Archive, February 28.

Korsiak, Jill, Lauren Pinault, et al. 2022. “Long-term exposure to wildfires and cancer incidence in Canada: A population-based observational cohort study.” The Lancet, May. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00067-5 

Lin, Elizabeth Ziying. 2023. “Canadian Wildfire Smoke Associated with Increased Asthma Cases in NYC.” Yale School of Public Health, October 5. https://ysph.yale.edu/news-article/canadian-wildfire-smoke-associated-with-increased-asthma-cases-in-nyc/

Lindsay, Kate, and Ricardo Pelai. 2024. “Canada needs to get ready for a future fraught with fire: How can the forest sector respond?” Canadian Climate Institute, January 31. https://climateinstitute.ca/canada-fires-forest-sector/ 

Matz, Carlyn J., Marika Egyed, Guoliang Xi, Jacinthe Racine, Radenko Pavlovic, Robyn Rittmaster, Sarah B. Henderson, and David M. Stieb. 2020. “Health impact analysis of PM2. 5 from wildfire smoke in Canada (2013–2015, 2017–2018).” Science of The Total Environment, 725, 138506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138506

McKabe, Kirsty. 2023. “How does climate change affect thunderstorms?” Royal Meteorological Society, July 20. https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/how-does-climate-change-affect-thunderstorms 

Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy. 2019. Preliminary Strategic Climate Risk Assessment for British Columbia. Report prepared for the Government of British Columbia. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/adaptation/riskassessment 

NASA Earth Observatory. 2015. “Canadian Wildfires Produce River of Smoke.” June 29. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/86151/canadian-wildfires-produce-river-of-smoke 

Natural Resources Canada. 2022. “Climate Change and Fire.” https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/wildland-fires-insects-disturbances/climate-change-fire/13155 

Natural Resources Canada. 2024a. “Canada’s record-breaking wildfires in 2023: A fiery wake-up call.” May 21. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/simply-science/canadas-record-breaking-wildfires-2023-fiery-wake-call/25303 

Natural Resources Canada. 2024b. “Fire Weather.” https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/fire-weather/17776 

Natural Resources Canada. 2024c. “Cost of WIldland Fire Protection.” May 13. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/cost-fire-protection/17783 

Public Health Agency of Canada. 2023. “Public Health Risk Profile: Wildfires in Canada, 2023.” July 23. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/emergency-preparedness-response/rapid-risk-assessments-public-health-professionals/risk-profile-wildfires-2023.html 

Sawyer, Dave, Ryan Ness, Caroline Lee, and Sarah Miller. 2022. Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/ damage-control 

Sawyer, Dave, Seton Stiebert, and Colin Welburn. 2023. “With the Forest Ablaze, the Health Costs Hit Home”. Canadian Climate Institute, June 26. https://climateinstitute.ca/with-the-forest-ablaze-the-health-costs-hit-home/

Shingler, Benjamin. 2024. “It’s the middle of winter, and more than 100 wildfires are still smouldering.” CBC, February 21. https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/wildfires-zombie-fires-canada-bc-alberta-1.7119851 

Vaillant, John. 2024. Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast. Vintage Canada. 

Webber, Tammy, and Noah Berger. “Canadian wildfires hit Indigenous communities hard, threatening their land and culture.” Associated Press, July 19. https://apnews.com/article/canada-wildfire-indigenous-land-first-nations-impact-3faabbfadfe434d0bd9ecafb8770afce 

World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/ 

Green Buildings Strategy takes steps forward, but no substitute for provincial action

HALIFAX — Sachi Gibson, Research Director for Mitigation at the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the federal government’s release of the Green Building Strategy:  

“The new federal Green Buildings Strategy takes worthwhile steps to cut carbon pollution from Canada’s buildings, reduce energy costs for people and businesses, and improve efficiency overall. These are priorities because emissions from Canada’s building sector continue to rise, making it one of only a handful of sectors to see carbon pollution increase since 2005. Yet more is needed, including stronger provincial policy and coordinated effort across jurisdictions, to reduce pollution from the buildings sector in line with Canada’s goal of net zero emissions by 2050. 

“As our Heat Exchange report indicates, provinces and territories hold important responsibilities to reduce emissions and support affordable energy in the buildings sector. In particular, they should accelerate investments in energy efficiency and building electrification, and stop expanding gas infrastructure for new development. Our research has found that energy-efficient heat pumps are already the lowest-cost option for heating and cooling many homes in Canada today, and can help reduce pollution while saving people money. 

“This federal strategy includes some positive steps forward, but in the race to decarbonize Canada’s buildings, it’s time for the provinces and territories to take the baton and run with it.” 

CONTACT 

Catharine Tunnacliffe
Communications Director
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883
ctunnacliffe@climateinstitute.ca

New approach to Indigenous housing can address health and climate risks

VANCOUVER / Unceded xʷməθkʷəy̓əm, Sḵwx̱wú7mesh and səlilwətaɬ territories, 27 JUNE 2024—A scoping paper released today explores a new approach to address a concern Indigenous Peoples have been raising for decades: poor quality homes are causing severe health impacts in Indigenous communities across Canada. The paper is the first in a series that is part of the Healthy Energy Homes project, a partnership between the Canadian Climate Institute’s Indigenous Research stream and Indigenous Clean Energy.

The scoping paper, Beyond Sustainability: The Power of Indigenous Healthy Energy Homes, shows that current approaches to housing in Indigenous communities are rooted in a colonial legacy that has resulted in unhealthy housing conditions that include poor ventilation, overcrowding, and homes that are unsuitable for their location or environment. This has led to a variety of severe health challenges—thousands of people in communities suffer from respiratory, cardiovascular, and mental illnesses that are either aggravated or directly caused by inadequate and unsafe housing. For example, tuberculosis transmission is at least 20 times higher among Indigenous people than non-Indigenous people. These unsafe housing conditions and related health challenges are also made worse by climate change impacts such as heat waves. 

Investing in Healthy Energy Homes that are energy-efficient, climate resilient, and support the well-being of inhabitants could address many of these challenges and unlock multiple benefits including reduced healthcare costs, emissions reductions, and savings for households. The paper finds that doing this will require a new approach in which housing strategies—and funding decisions—take a holistic view of housing issues and are developed in partnership with Indigenous communities.” 

Beyond Sustainability is the first part of a larger project—undertaken in collaboration between the Climate Institute’s Indigenous Research stream and Indigenous Clean Energy—that focuses on policy changes for unlocking positive interconnections between Indigenous housing, energy, and health. This first scoping paper, which draws upon findings from literature and dialogue with experts and Indigenous rightsholders, sets the foundation for the broader project and provides important context to both the challenges and innovative solutions linked to housing in Indigenous communities.

QUOTES

“This collaborative paper has brought together experts from across sectors and communities to work together to show how interconnected Indigenous housing and health outcomes are. Building Healthy Energy Homes for communities could deliver nested benefits that help address poor health outcomes in Indigenous communities, reducing emissions, and building climate resilience.”

—Janna Wale, Policy Advisor, Indigenous Research, Canadian Climate Institute

“Proactively investing in Indigenous housing that is climate resilient and energy efficient can offset health costs later down the road. Investing in long-term solutions that take a different approach to housing will benefit both those who are living in healthier homes and communities as a whole. Healthy Energy Homes can help relieve the pressure on overburdened healthcare systems and, if led by and done in partnership with Indigenous communities, support the process of reconciliation.”

—Maria Shallard, Director, Indigenous Research, Canadian Climate Institute

“Healthy Energy Homes is a new concept in housing, one that is centered on the people and community, as well as delivering on energy efficiency, cultural values, and greenhouse gas reduction. The housing situation in Indigenous communities has been a long-standing problem that will continue unless all orders of government not only provide further investments of time and money but, most importantly, take a different and more coordinated, holistic approach to address this issue, one that is informed by an Indigenous-led approach to Indigenous housing.”

—Ian Scholten, Director of Efficiency and Transportation, Indigenous Clean Energy

“In almost every Indigenous community, housing remains a major issue, if not the most pressing one. Unfortunately, many homes are built inefficiently, leading to poor health outcomes and shorter building lifespans, exacerbating the housing crisis. This report highlights how promoting sustainable Indigenous housing can offer a high return on investment by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fostering healthier communities. We hope this scoping paper sparks broader discussions about mobilizing capital to seize this opportunity. Finding solutions will require creativity and bravery, but the urgency and potential impact are too significant to ignore.”

—James Jenkins, Executive Director, Indigenous Clean Energy

Contact

Janina Stajic
Communications Manager
250-618-2360
jstajic@climateinstitute.ca

Planned shift from gas to electric heat required to avoid high costs and emissions: report

13 June 2024, OTTAWA—New research published today by the Canadian Climate Institute finds that a system-wide shift from gas to electric heat is the lowest-cost path through the clean energy transition. The report, Heat Exchange: How today’s policy choices will drive or delay Canada’s transition to clean, reliable heat, concludes that provincial government action will be necessary to protect reliability and avoid high costs for consumers as the energy transition accelerates.

The report finds that changing the energy mix for building heat in both homes and businesses—and changing energy infrastructure to support the shift from gas to electricity—will be necessary to reduce emissions from buildings and meet Canada’s climate goals while also minimizing costs. If investment in the gas network continues to grow and gas connections continue to be the default for new buildings, then governments, shareholders, and remaining gas consumers could find themselves on the hook for the costs of overbuilt and underused gas infrastructure, as more people switch to cleaner options.

Heat Exchange presents a case for provinces taking a new approach in planning  and regulating electric and gas utility infrastructure to better protect the public interest, now and in the future. 

FACTS FROM HEAT EXCHANGE

  • In all provinces and scenarios the Climate Institute examined, the lowest-cost pathway to net zero by 2050 for the economy results in electricity becoming the dominant energy supply for building heat. 
  • Reaching net zero emissions in residential, commercial and institutional buildings means substantial declines in gas use in every province—in places like Ontario, gas usage drops between 89 to 98 per cent from today’s levels. In Alberta, demand drops between 70 and 87 per cent. 
  • Today, more than five million homes in Canada (34 per cent) already heat with electricity, mostly baseboards. To meet net zero, 99 per cent of home heating in 2050 is projected to be entirely or mostly powered by electricity, including, in some cases, heat pumps backed up by gas in a hybrid system.
  • Our research found that a cost-effective energy transition in buildings will mean heat pumps are used to heat the vast majority of homes by 2050. While scarce low-carbon gases like biomethane and hydrogen will likely see some use in industrial buildings,they are expected to play only a marginal role in heating commercial and residential buildings.

QUOTES

“Protecting consumers in the energy transition means making electricity the default in new buildings in most cases, instead of gas. While the infrastructure we’re building today will be with us for 40 to 60 years, this research shows that achieving climate goals will mean a shrinking role for gas well before then. A manageable transition that protects affordable and reliable building heating requires provinces to stop expanding gas networks now, and start planning for the future.”
— SACHI GIBSON, RESEARCH DIRECTOR, MITIGATION

“Expanding gas infrastructure to heat buildings today would be like investing heavily in a chain of video rental stores 15 years ago. Energy systems need to plan for the reality that is arriving on our doorstep. The smart approach to protect consumers and ensure affordable, reliable energy in the future is to grow the electricity system—not lock in more dependence on gas.”
— JASON DION, SENIOR RESEARCH DIRECTOR

“Right now, regulators make choices about infrastructure that will affect ratepayers’ costs for decades—but those decisions are not required to factor in climate goals, including reaching net zero emissions. That big disconnect could drive up energy bills in the decades ahead. Provinces need to make forward-looking decisions about energy system investments, and they need to make plans and policies today to protect consumers in the economy-wide energy transition that’s underway.”
— KATE HARLAND, RESEARCH LEAD, MITIGATION

RESOURCES 

Report│Heat Exchange: How today’s policy choices will drive or delay Canada’s transition to clean, reliable heat

Report│Heat Pumps Pay Off: Unlocking lower cost heating and cooling in Canada (September 2023)

Case studies│ Heat Pumps Are Hot in the Maritimes (April 2023), Hybrid Heat in Quebec (April 2023), St Laurent Denied (April 2023)

Blog│Change is in the pipeline: will expanding gas networks leave ratepayers on the hook? (March 2024)

CONTACT 

Catharine Tunnacliffe
Communications Director
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883
ctunnacliffe@climateinstitute.ca

Evidence of progress: Canadian emissions down from peak as economy decouples emissions from growth 

OTTAWA—Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist for the Canadian Climate Institute, issued the following statement in response to the latest greenhouse gas emissions numbers from the federal government’s National Inventory Report (NIR). 

“While 2022 emissions are up slightly from the previous year, don’t miss the big picture: national emissions remain 5.9 per cent lower than pre-pandemic in 2019. The economy has grown 3.2 per cent since then, which is clear evidence that Canada continues to decouple emissions from economic growth. Decoupling now needs to accelerate further—more than double—if Canada is to hit its 2030 target.  

“National emissions are now 7.1 per cent below 2005, the baseline year for Canada’s official target of at least 40 per cent reduction by 2030. 

“Today’s NIR is close to the Canadian Climate Institute’s Early Estimate of National Emissions, released last September, which estimated that emissions in 2022 were 6.4 per cent below 2005 levels. 

“The latest national inventory is largely positive, but a few sectors do reveal themselves as a drag on progress. Sectors like electricity lead the pack in terms of reducing emissions. But sectors like oil and gas, heavy-duty vehicles, buildings, and agriculture continue to increase emissions, which offset some of the big gains since 2005. 

“The NIR methodologies are routinely updated with improvements in data and science. This year’s updates led to a significant increase in the scale of methane emissions in Canada. This analytical change coupled with increased oil and gas production means that emissions from this sector are now more significant than ever—31 per cent of the total, almost a third of Canada’s emissions. The importance of cutting methane emissions in the oil and gas sector, a no-brainer for cost-effective climate action, is clear.

“The NIR also holds a warning of climate change variability to come, with agriculture croplands releasing 22 Mt in 2022 due to drought, which limits the ability of soils and crops to sequester carbon. The previous high was 8 Mt released in 2003. The average since 1990 has been -14 Mt, indicating croplands have typically sequestered more carbon than they have released.  

“With eight reporting years remaining before the end of 2030, the clock is ticking loudly in terms of implementing the policies needed to achieve the deep emissions cuts required.”

CONTACT

Catharine Tunnacliffe
Director of Communications
ctunnacliffe@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883

KEY FACTS

  • The official numbers for 2022 show emissions in Canada were 708 megatonnes (Mt)—7.1 per cent below 2005 levels. 
  • Some of the sectors that have seen emissions reductions compared to 2005 levels included the electricity sector (-59.4 per cent), waste (-3.6 per cent), and heavy industry (-11.5 per cent). Sectors that have increased emissions since that time included oil and gas (+11 per cent), buildings (+4.5 per cent),  and agriculture (+7 per cent). In 2022, transportation emissions increased, bringing them back in line with 2005 levels. 
  • The 2024 NIR introduced several methodological improvements, including how methane is calculated, which led to a significant increase in the scale of methane emissions in Canada. As a result of the methodological changes and recalculations, Canada’s 2030 target is now higher, as the 2005 emissions on which the 2030 target is calculated were revised upwards.
  • The Canadian Climate Institute will release its Early Estimate of National Emissions for 2023 in September 2024. 

RESOURCES

Database: 2022 Early Estimate of National Emissions  (September 2023)
Insight: Emissions from oil and gas, buildings undercut Canada’s climate progress (September 2023)

Insight: Which Canadian climate policies will have the biggest impact by 2030 

Report: Independent assessment shows Canada on track to achieve 85-90 per cent of its 2030 emissions target

Budget 2024 advances climate and clean growth priorities, but risks missing opportunities

TORONTO — Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the release of the 2024 federal budget: 

“The commitments outlined in Budget 2024 will continue to advance climate progress in ways that drive growth and economic competitiveness while keeping energy affordable.  In particular, this budget confirms the federal government is working to implement a range of measures to unlock clean growth and help companies invest in low-carbon innovation, such as investing in critical minerals development, renewable energy, carbon contracts for difference, and various investment tax credits (ITCs).

“While we welcome additional detail on the coverage, timelines, and conditions for accessing the Clean Electricity ITCs, the proposed conditions for access represent a significant missed opportunity. Making access to these ITCs conditional on provincial energy roadmaps—as the Canada Electricity Advisory Council has called for—represents a pragmatic path forward that we hope the government considers as it consults on the final design in the coming months. 

“We’re also pleased to see continued support for electric vehicle charging infrastructure and energy-saving retrofits—investments that will help make life more affordable as Canadians make the switch to cleaner, more efficient energy. However, other measures—such as the commitment to continue working to establish a climate investment taxonomy—are long overdue, and we urge the federal government to move swiftly to implementation. 

“This budget commits the federal government to implement a low-cost national flood insurance program within the next 12 months and invests $175 million over five years in First Nations emergency preparedness for wildfires and other climate disasters. These commitments will boost capacity to address acute climate-related threats to communities across the country. 

“Yet helping communities prepare for escalating climate damages requires sustained focus and investment. Unfortunately, this budget continues a trend of under-investing in crucial preventative measures, such as delivering on federal responsibilities under the National Adaptation Strategy. And despite the significant funding committed to addressing Canada’s housing crisis, this budget misses an opportunity to ensure new homes are built to be more resilient to climate hazards, which will drive up the costs of home ownership over time as climate-fuelled disasters escalate.”

CONTACT 

Catharine Tunnacliffe
Communications Director
Canadian Climate Institute
(416) 527-1777
ctunnacliffe@climateinstitute.ca

RESOURCES