New climate taxonomy and disclosure rules set to drive drive long-term investment in Canada

OTTAWA — Jonathan Arnold, Research Lead in Clean Growth at the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the release of the federal government’s climate investment taxonomy framework:

“The federal government’s commitment today to a credible, science-based climate investment taxonomy sets the stage for a major acceleration of Canada’s clean energy transition. By the federal government’s own estimate, more than $115 billion per year in new clean energy and transition-aligned investments is needed to build Canada’s net zero economy. A Canadian climate investment taxonomy can help unlock the funds that will build those projects.

“A climate investment taxonomy will establish a standardized language for how investors and capital markets categorize financial investments and assets that are fit for the transition to net zero. Clearly defining those opportunities will help cut emissions from Canada’s most energy-intensive industries, which will increase their global competitiveness.

“Today’s announcement builds on the blueprint developed by the Sustainable Finance Action Council, which represents the 25 largest financial institutions in the country, and in partnership with the Canadian Climate Institute. The next step, as laid out by Minister Chrystia Freeland today, will see the creation of a new climate investment taxonomy that includes definitions for both “green” and “transition-aligned” investments. This taxonomy will create clarity for capital markets seeking sustainable investment opportunities.

“The government’s proposed framework aligns with global best practices for “green” taxonomies, while laying the groundwork for a “transition” taxonomy—the “missing middle” in climate finance. Critically, today’s announcement stresses the need to exclude new natural gas projects from the taxonomy framework. It also emphasizes the importance of having a credible, independent governance structure for how the sector-specific criteria and pathways are determined.

“In addition, the government announced that federally regulated corporations in Canada will be required to disclose how climate change and the global energy transition will impact their business and future profitability. This change is an important step to prepare Canada’s economy for the rising threat of a rapidly changing climate and the profound transformation already underway in international capital markets.

“Canada is well positioned to take a global leadership role in these areas. Done well, Canada’s climate investment taxonomy and updated risk disclosure requirements will help attract global capital to compete with our neighbours to the south.”

RESOURCES

CONTACT

Catharine Tunnacliffe
Communications Director
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883
ctunnacliffe@climateinstitute.ca

Experts estimate modest drop in 2023 emissions, with big differences across sectors

OTTAWA—The latest Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE) from the Canadian Climate Institute shows a modest improvement in national emissions in 2023, with a drop of about 1 per cent from 2022 levels. Progress was uneven across sectors, with electricity showing large drops in emissions while oil and gas emissions rose.

The independent estimate finds Canada’s emissions now sit at 8 per cent below 2005 levels, the baseline year for Canada’s 2030 emissions target of a 40 to 45 per cent reduction. Strong economic growth in 2023 pushed emissions up by 8.6 Mt CO2e from the previous year. However, the impact of climate policy and changing markets, including accelerating clean energy technology deployment, succeeded in reducing emissions by 14.2 Mt, resulting in an overall net decrease of 5.6 Mt.

At a sectoral level, oil and gas continued a long-standing trend of steadily rising emissions—up 1 per cent or 2.2 megatonnes (Mt) from 2022—and now makes up 31 per cent of Canada’s national total.

By contrast, emissions from the electricity sector continued to drop, and now sit 62 per cent lower than they were in 2005.

A slight rise in emissions from transport (+1.6 per cent; +2.5 Mt) was driven by higher domestic aviation activity, whereas buildings saw a drop in emissions (-5.6 per cent; -4.9 Mt) primarily due to a warmer El Niño year that was supercharged by climate change.

In total, Canada emitted 702 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt) in 2023, down 5.6 Mt from 2022, the estimate finds.

Research from the Canadian Climate Institute has previously shown the significant impact climate policy is having cutting carbon pollution—progress that is expected to be more pronounced the longer those policies are in effect. Canada’s emissions would be higher today without the actions taken to date by all levels of government since 2015 and rising to 41 per cent higher by 2030. Put another way, existing climate policies are expected to prevent 226 Mt of carbon emissions by 2030, equivalent to the current emissions profiles of Quebec and Ontario combined. Following through and finalizing developing and announced policies will deliver even deeper emissions cuts by 2030.

Yet Canada must build momentum to achieve its 2030 target and support future competitiveness in the global energy transition. The Institute has recommended all orders of government, including provinces and territories, quickly implement previously announced emission-reduction policies, strengthen existing ones, and introduce new measures.

QUOTES

“Once again, progress in Canada’s emissions reductions is starkly different across sectors. Governments right across the country need to accelerate developing policy and strengthen measures already in place, like electrification and industrial carbon pricing systems.”

— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“Our early estimate shows that rising oil and gas and transportation emissions are offsetting gains made in electricity and buildings, slowing Canada’s climate progress. While decoupling emissions from economic growth is a good sign, this is a long game—governments need to build momentum and set strong policy foundations for lasting climate progress.”

—Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist, Canadian Climate Institute

RESOURCES

Database | Early Estimate of National Emissions 2023
Fact sheet| Early Estimate of National Emissions 2023
440 Megatonnes Insight | 2023 emissions estimate shows modest decline, but oil and gas emissions undermine progress
Report| Independent Assessment of Canada’s Emissions Reduction Plan

CONTACT

Catharine Tunnacliffe
Communications Director
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883
ctunnacliffe@climateinstitute.ca

FACT SHEET: Climate change and flooding

Download fact sheet

In August 2024, the remnants of Hurricane Debby brought record-breaking floods to Quebec, inundating 55 communities. Just a month before, nearly 10 centimetres of rain fell in Toronto in three hours, overwhelming the city’s infrastructure and flooding many homes and businesses. And in November 2021, an atmospheric river unleashed record-breaking rain in British Columbia, triggering landslides and floods that caused extensive damage, cutting off main access routes to several areas of the province, severely impairing the economy.

As climate change worsens, Canadians will experience a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of these kinds of flood events. Warmer air, caused by increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, holds more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall and more intense storms. This, combined with melting snow packs, rising sea levels, and changing weather patterns, has created the conditions for more severe and unpredictable flooding. These floods are devastating for communities, economies, and livelihoods.

Climate change is driving increasingly severe and frequent floods

Because of climate change, most regions in the country will experience increased rainfall, higher extreme rainfall, and increased severity in coastal storms (Zhang et al. 2019; Vasseur et al. 2017).
Research shows that climate change intensifies many contributing factors that combine to elevate flood risk, including heavier rainfall and storm surges amplified by sea level rise (Denchak 2023; Greenan et al. 2019).
Climate heating means that warmer air can hold more water than cooler air, increasing the risk of heavier and more extreme rainfall events. More rain is likely to fall in short, intense bursts rather than being spread out over a longer period (Westra et al. 2014).
Increasingly frequent and severe short-duration rainfall events increase the likelihood of flash floods, especially in urban areas, by overwhelming storm sewers and drainage systems (Westra et al. 2014; Sandink 2015; Brown et al. 2021).
Parts of southern British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces have seen an increase of two to three heavy rainfall days per year on average (Zhang et al. 2019; Vincent et al. 2018).
Climate models project that by the end of the century, an extreme rainfall event that now occurs once every 20 years in Canada could happen every five years, and the amount of 24-hour extreme precipitation that occurs once in 20 years, on average, is projected to increase by 12 per cent (Zhang et al. 2019).

Floods can severely damage homes and infrastructure, costing billions of dollars

Flooding is the most common and costly disaster in Canada. In the past decade, floods have averaged nearly $800 million in insured losses annually (Insurance Bureau of Canada 2024).
Insurers estimate that for every dollar in insured losses from flooding, there are two dollars in uninsured damage that are borne directly by households and taxpayers (Honegger and Oehy 2016).
Over 1.5 million homes across the country are located in areas of high flood risk (Ness and Florez Bossio 2024). Eighty per cent of Canadian cities are built, in whole or in part, on floodplains (Public Safety Canada 2022).
As extreme rainfall and coastal flooding increase, the annual costs of flood damage to homes and buildings in Canada could grow three to five times by mid-century—amounting to over $5.5 billion—and reach as high as $13.6 billion by the end of the century (Ness et al. 2021).
On July 16, 2024, in Toronto, nearly 10 centimetres of rain fell in three hours, leading to massive flooding across the city. Early estimates put the cost of this flooding at $1 billion in insurable losses, with the total costs likely several times higher (Pereira 2024).
Canada has experienced five billion-dollar-plus flood events since 2011 (Insurance Bureau of Canada 2023; Manitoba Flood Review Task Force 2013; Insurance Bureau of Canada 2024; Public Safety Canada 2023).
Many Canadian homeowners believe they have insurance that will pay for repairs and rebuilding after overland flooding, but only about 10 to 15 per cent of households are actually covered (Posadzki 2017).
The households facing the highest flood risk in Canada either can’t get flood insurance or can’t afford it because the rates are so high (Public Safety Canada 2022).

More frequent and intense floods put people and communities at risk

Heavy rainfall events can overwhelm small drinking water treatment systems, degrading water quality and increasing the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks (Wang et al. 2018).
Over half of the waterborne disease outbreaks in the past 50 years in the United States occurred after episodes of extreme rainfall (Charron et al. 2011).
Floods can be fatal, as people drown while wading or driving through flood waters or are trapped in flooded buildings (Government of Canada 2021).
Injuries are common during and after floods due to swiftly moving heavy objects, damaged electrical wiring and appliances, and the risk of hypothermia from cold floodwater (Government of Canada 2021).
The psychosocial impacts of flooding are significant, increasing family conflicts, financial stress, and feelings of isolation. In some cases, flooding can trigger or exacerbate mental health conditions such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (Glenn and Myre 2022).
A few months after the Quebec floods of 2019, 44 per cent of those affected had moderate to high symptoms of post-traumatic stress, 21 per cent had symptoms of anxiety disorders, and 20 per cent had developed mood disorders (Institut national de santé publique du Québec 2024).
Flooded buildings are quickly colonized by mold, fungi, and bacteria, which can cause or aggravate skin, allergy, eye, respiratory, and gastrointestinal problems such as asthma, conjunctivitis, and otitis (Institut national de santé publique du Québec 2024).

Governments can act to protect communities from worsening flood risk

Flooding will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere continues to increase. Government action to manage this growing risk and limit further emissions is essential.
Because the impacts of climate change on flooding are already here and getting worse from the emissions that have already occurred, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased risk of floods today and into the future.
Some of the key adaptation actions governments can take to reduce flood risk and protect communities include:
- Shifting development away from high-risk flood zones: To prevent placing more homes in harm’s way, provincial and municipal governments could restrict building in areas with high flood risk. In moderate-risk zones or areas prone to urban flooding, it’s essential to flood-proof new developments to minimize water damage (World Bank 2017).
- Enhancing flood protection infrastructure at the community level: Investing in new and improved flood protection infrastructure, such as levees, floodwalls, and nature-based solutions, can cost-effectively safeguard communities at risk of flooding (Ness et al. 2021).
- Support proactive relocation from high-risk areas: In a few areas where flood risk is too high to provide adequate protection, governments should engage with homeowners and communities to consider proactive relocation, offering appropriate assistance and incentives for moving to safer areas (Public Safety Canada 2022).

References and resources

Three things governments need to do to protect homeowners and renters from the insurance industry’s perfect storm (Bourque 2022)
Reporting Extreme Weather and Climate Change: A Guide for Journalists (Clark and Otto 2024)
Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure (Ness et al. 2021)

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
Sarah Miller is Research Lead in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Pacific Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact:

Claudine Brulé

Communications and Media Relations Specialist
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525

FACT SHEET: Climate change and drought

Download fact sheet

Climate change will increase the risk and severity of droughts in parts of Canada that already struggle with water shortages, like the southern Prairies and the interior of British Columbia (Bonsal et al. 2019). A drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that lasts long enough to cause serious water shortages for natural ecosystems, agriculture, and people.

Climate change is making droughts more frequent and more severe

Climate change has made droughts more frequent and severe around the world, and the trend is expected to continue to worsen (IPCC 2023, p. 67; Chiang et al. 2023).
Climate change exacerbates drought, both because it shifts rainfall patterns and because it increases temperatures, leaving ecosystems increasingly vulnerable to dry conditions. Rising temperatures strain water supplies by increasing both evaporation rates and water consumption by plants (Walker and Van Loon 2023), resulting in drier soil conditions and water scarcity (Overpeck and Udall 2020).
Rising global temperatures alter precipitation patterns (United Nations n.d.; Zhang et al. 2019), reduce snowpack levels, and threaten glacial run-off as glaciers recede.
Climate change is also causing droughts to develop faster, making “flash droughts” more common (Yuan et al. 2023). This new reality makes forecasting and monitoring droughts more difficult.
Over the 21st century, the total land area subject to drought is expected to increase, with over 40 per cent of global land area expected to experience year-round drying by the end of the century, even under low-emissions scenarios (IPCC 2023, p. 1119; Cook et al. 2020).

Droughts are costly disasters

Droughts were an important factor in the recent dramatic increase in crop insurance payments in Canada, which surged from $890 million in 2018 to $4.897 billion in 2022 (Arnason 2024).
Drought insurance payouts to Alberta’s farmers and agribusinesses reached a record $326.5 million in 2023 , more than tripling the payouts from the 2021 drought, according to the Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (Smith 2024).
Due to severe drought, crop production in Saskatchewan fell by a record-high 47 per cent in 2021. That year, Saskatchewan was the only province to see its economy contract (-0.3 per cent). Statistics Canada reported that while “activity was up in most sectors of the economy, those gains were entirely negated by the worst drought in nearly two decades” (Statistics Canada 2022).
In the Abitibi region of Québec, hay producers received a record $6.8 million in compensation for the 2023 drought, more than triple the annual average (Cameron 2024).
Droughts limit hydroelectricity generation, cutting revenue for utilities, increasing reliance on fossil-fuelled generation (Statistics Canada 2024), and making electricity more expensive for consumers (CBC News 2023).
In January 2024, drought conditions in both B.C. and Manitoba meant lower reservoir levels at the hydroelectric facility, forcing the two provinces to import power from other jurisdictions (Canadian Press 2024).
In 2021, a drought in Manitoba limited power production, resulting in a $248-million loss for Manitoba Hydro (Manitoba Hydro 2022).

Droughts threaten the health of Canadians

Droughts can degrade drinking water quality and increase the risk of waterborne diseases, as sluggish flows and more evaporation concentrate contaminants in water bodies and promote toxic algal blooms (Yusa et al. 2015).
Droughts can contribute to respiratory issues (Yusa et al. 2015), because of windblown dust from dried-out soils.
Droughts in northwest British Columbia, particularly during July and August when salmon are migrating (Curran and Marsden 2021) to their upstream spawning areas, can cause severe and lasting damage to their populations, and to the ecosystems and Peoples that rely on them (Curran and Marsden 2021).

Droughts worsen the risk of floods and wildfires

During droughts, trees and plants are weakened or killed. Dry conditions also prevent new buds from growing (Natural Resources Canada 2024) and forests from regenerating. Weakened trees and plants have a harder time defending themselves against insects and diseases, making them more likely to die and become fuel for wildfire.
Drought can increase the risk of flooding. Dry conditions hurt soil quality and kill off vegetation, making soil less able to absorb water. If heavy rainfall follows a drought, water can run off more easily, which increases the risk of flooding (Bonsal et al. 2019).

Governments can do a lot to protect Canadians from the worsening risk of droughts

Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.
Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased risk of drought today. Here are a few specific measures governments can take:
- Strengthening agricultural resilience: Canada can adapt to drought by improving early warning systems, such as the Canadian Drought Monitor (Agriculture and Agri Food Canada 2024), to help producers make informed decisions. Investing in irrigation systems and water storage and offering incentives for planting drought-tolerant crop varieties can further strengthen resilience in the agricultural sector. It is also important to enhance crop insurance and disaster relief programs to better support farmers during droughts (Bonsal et al. 2011).
- Proactive planning: All orders of governments should proactively plan for drought by developing and implementing drought response plans, such as Alberta’s comprehensive Drought Response Plan. These plans can include strategies for managing water resources and coordinating efforts across affected sectors and communities (Government of Alberta 2024).
- Investing in structural measures for hydroelectricity: The hydroelectricity sector could adapt to drought by continuing to invest in water management infrastructure, such as reservoirs, to ensure that energy production can continue during low water levels (B.C. Hydro 2024).

Resources

Canadian Drought Monitor (Agriculture and Agri Food Canada 2024)
Reporting Extreme Weather and Climate Change: A Guide for Journalists (World Weather Attribution 2024)

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
Sarah Miller is Research Lead in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Pacific Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact:

Claudine Brulé
Communications and Media Relations Specialist
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525

References

Agriculture and Agri Food Canada. 2024. Canadian Drought Monitor. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor

Arnason, Robert. 2024. “Crop Insurance Costs Explode.” The Western Producer, February 29. https://www.producer.com/news/crop-insurance-costs-explode/

BC Hydro. 2024. “How we manage drought conditions.” https://www.bchydro.com/energy-in-bc/operations/transmission-reservoir-data/drought-management.html

Bonsal, B.R., D.L. Peters, et al.. 2019. “Changes in freshwater availability across Canada; Chapter 6 in Canada’s Changing Climate Report.” Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/6-0/

Cameron, Daphné. 2024. “Compensations pour Pertes Agricoles: Un Milliard pour les Agriculteurs après une Année Désastreuse.” La Presse, March 21. https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2024-03-21/compensations-pour-pertes-agricoles/un-milliard-pour-les-agriculteurs-apres-une-annee-desastreuse.php.

Canadian Press. 2024. “Drought in Western Canada Impacting Hydropower Production as Reservoirs Run Low.” Business in Vancouver, January 29. https://www.biv.com/news/resources-agriculture/drought-western-canada-impacting-hydropower-production-reservoirs-run-low-8295183

CBC News. 2023. “Drought is causing B.C. utilities to import more power — and that will affect your bills in 2024.” December 21. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-electric-rate-changes-as-province-imports-power-1.7065802

Chiang, Felicia, Omid Mazdiyasni, and Amir AghaKouchak. 2021. “Evidence of Anthropogenic Impacts on Global Drought Frequency, Duration, and Intensity.” Nature Communications 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w

Cook, Benjamin I., Justin S. Mankin, Kate Marvel, A. Park Williams, Jason E. Smerdon, and Kevin J. Anchukaitis. 2020. “Twenty-First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios”. Earth Future 8 (6). https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001461

Curran, Deborah, and Tara Marsden. 2021. Ayookxw responding to climate change. Canadian Climate Institute. June 21. https://climateinstitute.ca/publications/ayookxw-responding-to-climate-change/

Government of Alberta. 2024. Alberta Drought Response Plan. Environment and Protected Areas. August 14. https://www.alberta.ca/system/files/epa-alberta-drought-response-plan.pdf

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2023. Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Manitoba Hydro. 2022. “Manitoba Hydro posts $248 million consolidated net loss due to drought: 2021-22 annual report.” September 29. https://www.hydro.mb.ca/articles/2022/09/manitoba_hydro_posts_248_million_consolidated_net_loss_due_to_drought_2021_22_annual_report/

Natural Resources Canada. 2024. “Drought.” Natural Resources Canada, April 12. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/drought/17772.

Overpeck, Jonathan T., and Bradley Udall. 2020. “Climate Change and the Aridification of North America.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117(22): 11856–11858. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006323117

Smith, Madeline. 2024. “Farmers, Ranchers Worry About Coming Season Amid Drought, High Pasture Insurance Payouts.” CBC, February 26. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-farmer-rancher-drought-insurance-1.7124671.

Statistics Canada. 2022. “Drought drags down Saskatchewan Economy in 2021”. Statistics Canada. September 23. https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/1852-drought-drags-down-saskatchewan-economy-2021

Statistics Canada. 2024. An energy snapshot: First quarter of 2024 review. https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/6447-energy-snapshot-first-quarter-2024-review

United Nations. n.d. “Water – At the Center of the Climate Crisis.” United Nations. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/water

Walker, David, and Anne F. Van Loon. 2023. “Droughts Are Coming on Faster.” Science 380(6641): 130–132. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adh3097

World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/

Yuan, Xing, Yumiao Wang, Peng Ji, Peili Wu, Justin Sheffield, and Jason A. Otkin. 2023. “A Global Transition to Flash Droughts under Climate Change.” Science, 380(6641), 187–191. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn6301

Yusa, Anna, Peter Berry, June J. Cheng, Nicholas Ogden, Barrie Bonsal, Ronald Stewart, and Ruth Waldick. 2015. “Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12(7): 8359–8412. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120708359

Zhang, Xuebin, Greg Flato, Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Lucie Vincent, Hui Wan, Xiaolan L. Wang, Robin Rong, John Fyfe, Guilong Li, and Viatchelsav V. Kharin. 2019. “Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada.” In Canada’s Changing Climate Report, edited by E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen, 112–193. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/4-3/summary/

This summer’s climate-fuelled disasters have cost Canadians billions

OTTAWA, 4 September 2024 —The financial toll from this year’s two biggest extreme weather disasters have already surpassed $1.8 billion, counting only insured losses, according to a new online tool created by the Canadian Climate Institute. A single afternoon of heavy rain in Toronto caused flooding that may wind up costing almost $1 billion. The wildfire that destroyed parts of Jasper will cost at least $880 million in insured losses alone. This new tool, accessible at ClimateChangeCosts.ca, tracks estimates of the financial impact of climate-related disasters and extreme weather across the country. It will be updated in real time as these sorts of events continue to become more common.

Because the impacts of climate change are difficult to calculate and slow to tally, the costs on the map present only a fraction of the damages from recent extreme weather and climate-fuelled disasters. Costs from weather-related events such as the recent flooding in Montreal and the 2024 wildfire season will be added as more data becomes available.

Canada has already warmed 1.7 degrees since 1948 due to the release of heat-trapping pollution, faster than the global average. Nine out of the ten costliest years for insured damages from extreme weather in Canada have occurred since 2011, adding up to more than $27 billion in insured losses, according to the Insurance Bureau of Canada.

A 2022 Climate Institute report showed how climate change is eroding economic growth at both the national and sector levels, straining government budgets, reducing household income, and damaging Canada’s competitiveness. Economic damage from climate change is expected to cost the Canadian economy an estimated $25 billion by 2025—that’s equal to half a year’s projected growth.

Proactive adaptation measures and policies can limit the damages from the impacts of climate change, however. Institute research finds that such measures and policies can cut future costs in half, saving billions of dollars, and making life more affordable for households. A dollar invested in proactive adaptation measures, the Institute has found, can return $13-$15 in direct and indirect benefits. And if adaptation measures are combined with global emissions reductions, future costs could be reduced by three-quarters, putting Canada on a path to a more stable and affordable future.

The interactive map currently features reports from the past 12 months, and will be updated regularly as more costs are reported. While Canada does not yet have the capacity to analyze the contribution of climate change to all extreme weather, the map provides a clear and growing picture of how floods, wildfires and other events are increasingly straining Canada’s economy.

QUOTES

“Climate change has a direct negative impact on our budgets and bank accounts. Failing to grasp the economic threat posed by climate change has led many Canadians and decision-makers to drastically underestimate both the economic benefits of climate policies and the cost of failing to act. This map spotlights the financial risks we face and sounds the alarm on the need for immediate measures to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and better prepare Canadian communities for the impacts of climate change.” — Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“Canada’s climate is changing and everyone, everywhere, is experiencing the effects. The economy is highly sensitive to this threat, and we estimate that the average Canadian household currently loses at least $700 each year due to climate-related costs. We need to reckon with the price tag for these massive disasters and do everything we can to control the damage. As our new interactive map shows, the costs of extreme weather events, which we know are exacerbated by climate change, are measurable and mounting.” – Ryan Ness, Adaptation Research Director, Canadian Climate Institute

RESOURCES

Interactive tool at ClimateChangeCosts.ca
Costs of climate change: a series of five reports that seeks to understand the costs facing Canada from accelerating climate change
Canadian Climate Institute fact sheets: Heat Waves, Wild Fires, Droughts, Floods

CONTACT

Claudine Brulé

Communications and Media Relations Specialist

(514) 358-8525

cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

FACT SHEET: Climate change and heat waves

Download fact sheet

Climate change, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, is causing more frequent and intense heat waves (ClimateData.ca 2024). These heat waves are threatening the safety, well-being, and prosperity of Canadians—even in cities that have historically had more moderate climates, such as Vancouver, Whitehorse, and Halifax.

Globally, 2023 was the hottest year on record, and 2024 is on track to be even hotter (World Meteorological Organization 2024). Canada, which is warming faster than anywhere else on earth, is suffering the consequences of the overheating climate (McBean 2024).

Climate change fuels heat waves

Canada is warming twice as fast as the global average, and Canada’s Arctic is warming nearly four times as fast (Government of Canada 2019; Rantanen et al. 2022).
Climate change increases the frequency of extreme heat, makes heat waves move more slowly, and results in more frequent and severe heat domes (Seneviratne et al. 2021; Borenstein 2024; Bratu et al. 2022).
Environment and Climate Change Canada has determined that the June 2024 heat wave that struck central and Eastern Canada was two to 10 times more likely as a result of climate change, with temperatures over 10 degrees higher than normal in parts of Quebec and Atlantic Canada (Shingler 2024).

Climate-fuelled heat makes wildfires worse

Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions (high temperatures, low humidity, and drought conditions) in Eastern Canada in 2023, and made Québec’s 2023 fire season around 50 per cent more intense (World Weather Attribution 2023).
Heat waves make it easier for wildfires to start and spread. Intense heat makes lightning, the primary cause of wildfires, more likely to occur (Pérez-Invernón et al. 2023), and makes vegetation drier and more flammable, facilitating the spread of wildfires (Natural Resources Canada 2024).
During the 2021 heat wave in B.C., the number of active wildfires rose from six to 175, with fires that spread during the heat wave consuming nearly 79,000 hectares, including the entire town of Lytton (White et al. 2023).
For more information on climate change and wildfires, please see our wildfires fact sheet.

Climate-fuelled extreme heat takes a significant toll on Canadian safety, well-being, and prosperity

A study in Nature found that between 1981 and 2018, 37 per cent of heat-related deaths globally can be attributed to climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021). This increased mortality is evident on every continent.
Elevated death rates have been documented during and immediately following heat waves in Canada (Government of Canada 2024). The British Columbia heat wave of June 25 to July 2, 2021, saw an estimated 619 heat-related deaths, making it the deadliest disaster in B.C.’s recorded history (BC Coroners Service 2022).
Climate scientists found that the 2021 B.C. heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change (Philip et al. 2022).
A 2024 study by the Institut national de la recherche scientifique concludes that elevated summer temperatures in Quebec are associated with 470 deaths, 225 hospitalizations, 36,000 emergency room visits, 7,200 ambulance transports, and 15,000 calls to Info-Santé every year (Boudreault et al. 2024).
Our 2021 report The Health Costs of Climate Change projected that the costs of heat-related deaths and reduced quality of life from extreme heat in Canada would range from $3 billion to $3.9 billion per year by mid-century (Clark et al. 2021).
Our research shows that the 2021 heat wave in B.C. caused $12 million in additional healthcare costs, and that without action on adaptation and health system preparation, the province could average 1,370 heat-related deaths per year by 2030 (Beugin et al. 2023).
The International Labour Organization finds that 2.4 billion workers, fully 70 per cent of the global workforce, are exposed to extreme heat, with elevated risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease, kidney dysfunction, and physical injury (International Labour Organization 2024).
Canada’s manufacturing sector alone could see annual losses in between $1 billion and $2 billion by 2050, due to the productivity impacts of heat waves on Canada’s workforce (Clark et al. 2021).

Governments can act to protect communities and slow further warming

Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.
Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased fire risks today.
Ways for governments and other entities to prepare and protect people from extreme heat include:
- Making buildings safer by encouraging the installation of indoor cooling devices (like heat pumps or air conditioning).
- Planting green roofs and trees for shade in urban areas—such measures, if implemented in the B.C. Lower Mainland, could reduce heat-related deaths by 12 per cent in the 2030s and cut heat-related hospitalizations by 7 per cent, compared to status quo policies (Beugin et al. 2023).
- Giving employers and the public up-to-date information on how to keep safe during extreme heat waves.
- Sending heat warnings out early enough to let people and responders prepare.
- Designing infrastructure such as roads, railways, and electricity systems to withstand extreme heat and rainfall—this can reduce damage costs by 80 per cent by the end of the century, or up to $3.1 billion each year (Ness et al. 2021).

Proper preparation for heat waves improves health outcomes and makes financial sense

Proactive adaptation interventions like urban greening and mechanical cooling can reduce the annual cost of heat-related hospitalization by up to 30 per cent in B.C.’s Lower Mainland by mid-century (Beugin et al. 2023).

Resources

Reporting Extreme Weather and Climate Change: A Guide for Journalists (Clarke and Otto 2024)
Climate Change and Heatwaves (World Meteorological Organization, 2023)
Extreme Heat Events Overview (Government of Canada 2024)
Extreme Heat Preparedness Guide (PreparedBC 2024)
Health Impacts of Extreme Heat (Climate Atlas of Canada 2024)

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Cost of Climate Change series. Ryan est également disponible pour des entretiens en français. (Eastern Time, English and French).
Sarah Miller is Research Lead in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Pacific Time, English).

For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact:

Claudine Brulé
Communications and Media Relations Specialist
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525

References

BC Coroners Service. 2022. Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. June 7. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/birth-adoption-death-marriage-and-divorce/deaths/coroners-service/death-review-panel/extreme_heat_death_review_panel_report.pdf

Beugin, Dale, Dylan Clark, Sarah Miller, Ryan Ness, Ricardo Pelai, and Janna Wale. 2023. The case for adapting to extreme heat: Costs of the 2021 B.C. heat wave. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/extreme-heat-in-canada/

Borenstein, Seth. 2024. “Study says since 1979 climate change has made heat waves last longer, spike hotter, hurt more people.” Associated Press, March 29. https://apnews.com/article/heat-wave-climate-change-worsen-hotter-797aae046df8165f5f8be7d3f40a8b74

Boudreault, Jérémie, Éric Lavigne, Céline Campagna, and Fateh Chebana. 2024. “Estimating the heat-related mortality and morbidity burden in the province of Quebec, Canada.” Environmental Research, September 14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2024.119347

Bratu, Andreea, Kiffer G. Card, Kalysha Closson, Niloufar Aran, Carly Marshall, Susan Clayton, Maya K. Gislason, Hasina Samji, Gina Martin, Melissa Lem, Carmen H. Logie, Tim K. Takaro, and Robert S. Hogg. 2022. “The 2021 Western North American heat dome increased climate change anxiety among British Columbians: Results from a natural experiment.” The Journal of Climate Change and Health, May. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278222000050

Clark, Dylan, Ryan Ness, Dena Coffman, and Dale Beugin. 2021. The Health Costs of Climate Change: How Canada Can Adapt, Prepare, and Save Lives. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/the-health-costs-of-climate-change/

Clarke, Ben, and Friederike Otto. 2024. “Reporting extreme weather and climate change: A guide of journalists.” World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/reporting-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-a-guide-for-journalists/

Climate Atlas of Canada. 2024. “Heath impacts of extreme heat.” https://climateatlas.ca/health-impacts-extreme-heat

ClimateData.ca. 2024. “Heat waves and climate change.” https://climatedata.ca/resource/heat-waves-and-climate-change/

Government of Canada. 2019. “Canada’s climate is warming twice as fast as global average.” Press release. April 2. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2019/04/canadas-climate-is-warming-twice-as-fast-as-global-average.html

Government of Canada. 2024. “Extreme heat events: Overview.” May 7. https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/climate-change-health/extreme-heat.html

Henderson, Sarah B., Kathleen E. McLean, Michael J. Lee, and Tom Kosatsky. 2021. “Extreme heat events are public health emergencies.” BC Medical Journal, November.

International Labour Organization. 2024. Ensuring safety and health at work in a changing climate. April 22. https://www.ilo.org/publications/ensuring-safety-and-health-work-changing-climate

Kirchmeier-Young, Megan, N. P. Gillett, F. W. Zwiers, A. J. Cannon, and F. S. Anslow. 2019. “Attribution of the influence of human-induced climate change on an extreme fire season.” Earth’s Future, January. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001050

McBean, Gordon. 2024. “2023 was the hottest year in history — and Canada is warming faster than anywhere else on earth.” The Conversation, January 11. https://theconversation.com/2023-was-the-hottest-year-in-history-and-canada-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-else-on-earth-220997

Natural Resources Canada. 2024a. “Canada’s record-breaking wildfires in 2023: A fiery wake-up call.” May 21. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/simply-science/canadas-record-breaking-wildfires-2023-fiery-wake-call/25303

Ness, Ryan, Dylan G. Clark, Julien Bourque, Dena Coffman, and Dale Beugin. 2021. Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/under-water/

Parisien, Marc-André, Quinn E. Barber, Mathieu L. Bourbonnais, Lori D. Daniels, Mike D. Flannigan, Robert W. Gray, Kira M. Hoffman, Piyush Jain, Scott L. Stephens, Steve W. Taylor, and Ellen Whitman. 2023. “Abrupt, climate-induced increase in wildfires in British Columbia since the mid-2000s.” Communications Earth & Environment, September 5. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00977-1

Pérez-Invernón, F.J., F.J. Gordillo-Vázquez, H. Huntrieser, et al. “Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change.” Nature Communications 14, 739 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5

Philip, Sjoukje Y., Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, et al. 2022. “Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021.” Earth System Dynamics, December 8. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1689/2022/

PreparedBC. 2024. “Extreme heat preparedness guide.” Government of British Columbia. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/public-safety-and-emergency-services/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/embc/preparedbc/preparedbc-guides/preparedbc_extreme_heat_guide.pdf

Rantanen, Mika, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Antti Lipponen, et al. 2022. “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979.” Commun Earth Environ 3, 168. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3

Shingler, Benjamin. 2024. “Canada draws link between June heat wave and climate change with new attribution analysis.” CBC, July 9. https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/canada-eccc-rapid-attribution-heat-1.7257456

Sonia I. Seneviratne, Xuebin Zhang, et al. 2021. “Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate.” In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. pp. 1513–1766, doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.013.

Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., N. Scovronick, F. Sera, et al. 2021. “The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.” Nature Climate Change, May 31. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

White, Rachel H., Sam Anderson, et al. 2023. “The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021.” Nature Communications, February 9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36289-3

World Meterological Organization. 2023. “Climate change and heatwaves.” September 21. https://wmo.int/content/climate-change-and-heatwaves

World Meteorological Organization. 2024. “Record temperature streak continues in June.” July 8. https://wmo.int/media/news/record-temperature-streak-continues-june World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/

FACT SHEET: Climate change and wildfires

Download fact sheet

Accelerating climate change, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, makes wildfires bigger, hotter, and more frequent (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.). With Canada warming twice as fast as the global average (Government of Canada 2019), and home to more than a quarter of the world’s boreal forests, the country is experiencing this consequence of global heating firsthand. Canada experienced its most destructive wildfire season ever in 2023, with fires consuming 16.5 million hectares—more than double the previous record and nearly seven times more than the historical average (Natural Resources Canada 2024).

Our research finds that to keep Canadians safe, governments must play both defence and offence—protecting people and ecosystems while accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels to limit further heating (Sawyer et al. 2022).

Climate change makes wildfires worse

While forest fires are naturally occurring disturbances that contribute to the health and renewal of many forest ecosystems (Canadian Council of Forest Ministers 2019), fires are burning hotter and wilder as the climate warms, causing much greater destruction.
Wildfire activity is increasingly frequent across Canada (Hanes et al. 2018). The area burned in 2023 was more than six times the historical average (Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre 2024).
Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada in 2023 (World Weather Attribution 2023).
An overheating climate is making Canadian summers hotter and windier, with more erratic rainfall, including less summer rain in some regions (Bush and Lemmen 2019; Gifford et al. 2022).
Fire season is starting earlier, is lasting longer, and is harder to contain (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.; Natural Resources Canada 2024b; Natural Resources Canada 2022). Zombie fires are even beginning to smoulder through the winter (Shingler 2024).
Lighting strikes become more frequent as the climate warms (McKabe 2023). Ninety-three per cent of the area burned in Canada in 2023 was from fires ignited by lightning; only 7 per cent by human-ignition (Jain et al. 2024).
Elevated wildfire risk means that, whatever the cause, fires catch, spread, and get out of control much more easily.

Wildfires are damaging people’s health and wellbeing

The smoke from wildfires can spread thousands of kilometres (NASA Earth Observatory 2015), requiring school closures and causing other disruptions while threatening the health of millions of people (Lin 2023), particularly children, seniors, and people with heart or lung disease.
Hot-burning wildfires release dangerous levels of particulate matter into the air, which is associated with an increased risk of issues like heart disease, cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, and brain cancer (Egyed et al. 2022; Korsiak et al. 2022).
Heavy smoke takes a significant toll on the Canadian healthcare system. A single week of wildfire smoke in June 2023 was estimated to have cost Ontario over $1.2 billion (Sawyer et al. 2023) in health impacts such as premature deaths, increased hospital visits, and health emergencies.
Poor air quality from smoke hits the most vulnerable the hardest (Government of Canada, 2022). The impacts of smoke are even more serious for groups like children, seniors, pregnant people, and those who work outdoors.
Smoke from larger and more frequent wildfires is exacerbating asthma across parts of Western Canada (Matz et al. 2020), and the aftermath of climate-related fires and floods takes a significant toll on mental health (Belleville et al. 2019).
Wildfires can destroy homes and communities, devastate fragile ecosystems, and threaten economic security. These effects have been linked to post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, and suicidal thoughts (Hayes et al. 2022).

Worsening wildfires are making life more expensive

Wildfires can destroy property, homes, and entire communities, driving up insurance costs and making life more expensive (Gerety 2024; Vaillant 2024).
The cost of wildfire protection has risen by about $150 million per decade since the 1970s (Government of Canada 2024). These costs exceeded $1 billion for six of the last 10 years.
The 2016 wildfire in Fort McMurray, Alberta, cost an estimated $9 billion in direct and indirect physical, financial, health, and environmental impacts (Alam et al. 2019). It triggered the largest evacuation in Canadian history, destroying more than 2,400 structures and displacing 85,000 people.
Wildfires impact key sectors of the economy, including the forest industry, one of Canada’s largest employers (Lindsay and Pelai 2024). Wildfires can disrupt forestry operations and reduce the amount of timber available, hurting workers and forest-dependent communities in the process. During the 2017 wildfires in British Columbia, 40 forestry companies were temporarily shut down (Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy 2019).
The accumulating impacts of global heating, including bigger and more frequent wildfires, are raising the cost of living in Canada from lost jobs, reduced economic activity, and tax hikes to pay for disaster recovery and infrastructure repairs. The additional climate change impacts between 2015 and 2025 alone will cost the average household $700 per year, and will continue to increase moving forward (Sawyer et al. 2022).

Governments can act to protect communities and slow further heating

Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.
Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased fire risks today.
Federal and provincial governments can promote fire resilience by limiting development in areas at high risk of wildfires, strengthening building codes and regulations (for example, building with fire-resistant materials), and improving forest and vegetation management through prescribed burns and other measures to help reduce fuel available to burn near at-risk communities (Bénichou et al. 2021).
Alberta and British Columbia’s FireSmart programs are examples of initiatives that help communities and individuals reduce their fire risk (FireSmart Alberta 2024; FireSmart B.C. 2024).

Indigenous Peoples are disproportionately impacted, and leading on solutions

Indigenous communities in Canada have used controlled fire as traditional land management practice since time immemorial. Supporting these cultural burning practices can help reduce the risk of out-of-control wildfires (BC Wildfire Service 2022).
Eighty per cent of majority-Indigenous communities in Canada are located in fire-prone regions (Asfaw et al. 2019).
More than 42 per cent of wildfire evacuations have been from majority-Indigenous communities (Webber and Berger 2023).
Between 1980 and 2021 in Canada, 16 communities (Christianson et al. 2024) were evacuated five or more times, and all but two of those were First Nations reserves.

Resources

Public Health Risk Profile: Wildfires in Canada (Public Health Agency of Canada 2023)
The Cost of Wildland Fire Protection (Natural Resources Canada 2024c)
Flame Wars: Misinformation and Wildfire in Canada’s Climate Conversation (Climate Action Against Disinformation 2024)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (2024)
Forest Fires and Climate Change (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.)
Reporting Extreme Weather and Climate Change: A Guide for Journalists (World Weather Attribution 2024)

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
Sarah Miller is Research Lead in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Pacific Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact:

Claudine Brulé
Communications and Media Relations Specialist
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525

References

Alam, Rafat, Shahidul Islam, Eric Mosely, Sean Thomas, Virginia Dowdell, Dawn Doel. 2019. Rapid Impact Assessment of Fort McMurray Wildfire. Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction and MacEwan University. https://www.iclr.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Rapid-Impact-Assessment-of-Fort-McMurray-Wildfire.pdf

Asfaw, Henok Workeye, Sandy Lake First Nation, Tara K. McGee, and Amy Cardinal Christianson. 2019. “A qualitative study exploring barriers and facilitators of effective service delivery for Indigenous wildfire hazard evacuees during their stay in host communities.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 41, 101300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101300

BC Wildfire Service. 2022. “How cultural burning enhances landscapes and lives.” May 5. https://blog.gov.bc.ca/bcwildfire/how-cultural-burning-enhances-landscapes-and-lives/

Bénichou, Noureddine, Masoud Adelzadeh, Jitender Singh, Islam Gomaa, Nour Elsagan, Max Kinateder, Chunyun Ma, Abhishek Gaur, Alex Bwalya, and Mohamed Sultan. 2021. National Guide for Wildland-Urban Interface Fires. National Research Council Canada. https://doi.org/10.4224/40002647

Belleville, Genevieve, Marie-Christine Ouellet, and Charles M. Morin. 2019. “Post-traumatic stress among evacuees from the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires: exploration of psychological and sleep symptoms three months after the evacuation.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(9), 1604. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16091604

Bush, E., and D. S. Lemmen, editors. 2019. Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/

Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 2019. “Natural Disturbances.” https://www.ccfm.org/healthy-forests/natural-disturbances/

Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. 2024. “Wildfire Graphs: Annual area burned in Canada.” https://ciffc.net/statistics

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. 2024. “Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts.” Natural Resources Canada. https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/forecasts

Christianson, Amy Cardinal, Lynn M. Johnston, Jacqueline A. Oliver, David Watson, David Young, Heather MacDonald, John Little, Bruce Macnab, and Noemie Gonzalez Bautista. 2024. “Wildland fire evacuations in Canada from 1980 to 2021.” International Journal of Wildland Fire, 33(7). https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23097

Climate Action Against Disinformation. Flame Wars: Misinformation and Wildfire in Canada’s Climate Conversation. June 11. https://caad.info/analysis/reports/flame-wars-misinformation-and-wildfire-in-canadas-climate-conversation/

Climate Atlas of Canada. n.d. “Forest Fires and Climate Change.” https://climateatlas.ca/forest-fires-and-climate-change

Egyed, Marika, Phil Blagden, et al. 2022. “Air Quality.” In P. Berry & R. Schnitter (Eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada.

FireSmart Alberta. 2024. “About FireSmart Alberta.” https://firesmartalberta.ca/about/

FireSmart B.C. 2024. “About FireSmart B.C.” https://firesmartbc.ca/

Gerety, Rowan Moore. “How does a tiny mountain town, burned to the ground, come back.” New York Times, March 12. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/travel/lytton-fire-canada.html

Gifford, Robert, Craig Brown, Carrie Baron, Denni Clement, Natalya Melnychuk, Harry Nelson, Luke Sales, and Dave Spittlehouse. 2022. British Columbia Chapter in Canada in a Changing Climate: Regional Perspectives Report. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/regional-perspectives/chapter/5-0/

Government of Canada. 2024. “Cost of Wildland Fire Protection.” May 13. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/cost-fire-protection/17783

Hanes, Chelene C., Xianli Wang, Piyush Jain, Marc-André Parisien, John M. Little, and Mike D. Flannigan. 2019. “Fire-regime changes in Canada over the last half century.” Canadian Journal of Forest Research, November 16. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2018-0293

Hayes, Katie, Ashley Cunsolo, et al. 2022. “Mental Health and Well-Being.” In P. Berry & R. Schnitter (Eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada.

IPCC, 2022. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press. https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844

Jain, Piyush, Quinn E. Barber, Steve Taylor, et al. 2024. Canada Under Fire: Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season. ESS Open Archive, February 28.

Korsiak, Jill, Lauren Pinault, et al. 2022. “Long-term exposure to wildfires and cancer incidence in Canada: A population-based observational cohort study.” The Lancet, May. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00067-5

Lin, Elizabeth Ziying. 2023. “Canadian Wildfire Smoke Associated with Increased Asthma Cases in NYC.” Yale School of Public Health, October 5. https://ysph.yale.edu/news-article/canadian-wildfire-smoke-associated-with-increased-asthma-cases-in-nyc/

Lindsay, Kate, and Ricardo Pelai. 2024. “Canada needs to get ready for a future fraught with fire: How can the forest sector respond?” Canadian Climate Institute, January 31. https://climateinstitute.ca/canada-fires-forest-sector/

Matz, Carlyn J., Marika Egyed, Guoliang Xi, Jacinthe Racine, Radenko Pavlovic, Robyn Rittmaster, Sarah B. Henderson, and David M. Stieb. 2020. “Health impact analysis of PM2. 5 from wildfire smoke in Canada (2013–2015, 2017–2018).” Science of The Total Environment, 725, 138506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138506

McKabe, Kirsty. 2023. “How does climate change affect thunderstorms?” Royal Meteorological Society, July 20. https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/how-does-climate-change-affect-thunderstorms

Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy. 2019. Preliminary Strategic Climate Risk Assessment for British Columbia. Report prepared for the Government of British Columbia. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/adaptation/riskassessment

NASA Earth Observatory. 2015. “Canadian Wildfires Produce River of Smoke.” June 29. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/86151/canadian-wildfires-produce-river-of-smoke

Natural Resources Canada. 2022. “Climate Change and Fire.” https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/wildland-fires-insects-disturbances/climate-change-fire/13155

Natural Resources Canada. 2024b. “Fire Weather.” https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/fire-weather/17776

Natural Resources Canada. 2024c. “Cost of WIldland Fire Protection.” May 13. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/cost-fire-protection/17783

Public Health Agency of Canada. 2023. “Public Health Risk Profile: Wildfires in Canada, 2023.” July 23. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/emergency-preparedness-response/rapid-risk-assessments-public-health-professionals/risk-profile-wildfires-2023.html

Sawyer, Dave, Ryan Ness, Caroline Lee, and Sarah Miller. 2022. Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/ damage-control

Sawyer, Dave, Seton Stiebert, and Colin Welburn. 2023. “With the Forest Ablaze, the Health Costs Hit Home”. Canadian Climate Institute, June 26. https://climateinstitute.ca/with-the-forest-ablaze-the-health-costs-hit-home/

Shingler, Benjamin. 2024. “It’s the middle of winter, and more than 100 wildfires are still smouldering.” CBC, February 21. https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/wildfires-zombie-fires-canada-bc-alberta-1.7119851

Vaillant, John. 2024. Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast. Vintage Canada.

Webber, Tammy, and Noah Berger. “Canadian wildfires hit Indigenous communities hard, threatening their land and culture.” Associated Press, July 19. https://apnews.com/article/canada-wildfire-indigenous-land-first-nations-impact-3faabbfadfe434d0bd9ecafb8770afce

Green Buildings Strategy takes steps forward, but no substitute for provincial action

HALIFAX — Sachi Gibson, Research Director for Mitigation at the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the federal government’s release of the Green Building Strategy:

“The new federal Green Buildings Strategy takes worthwhile steps to cut carbon pollution from Canada’s buildings, reduce energy costs for people and businesses, and improve efficiency overall. These are priorities because emissions from Canada’s building sector continue to rise, making it one of only a handful of sectors to see carbon pollution increase since 2005. Yet more is needed, including stronger provincial policy and coordinated effort across jurisdictions, to reduce pollution from the buildings sector in line with Canada’s goal of net zero emissions by 2050.

“As our Heat Exchange report indicates, provinces and territories hold important responsibilities to reduce emissions and support affordable energy in the buildings sector. In particular, they should accelerate investments in energy efficiency and building electrification, and stop expanding gas infrastructure for new development. Our research has found that energy-efficient heat pumps are already the lowest-cost option for heating and cooling many homes in Canada today, and can help reduce pollution while saving people money.

“This federal strategy includes some positive steps forward, but in the race to decarbonize Canada’s buildings, it’s time for the provinces and territories to take the baton and run with it.”

CONTACT

Catharine Tunnacliffe
Communications Director
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883
ctunnacliffe@climateinstitute.ca

New approach to Indigenous housing can address health and climate risks

VANCOUVER / Unceded xʷməθkʷəy̓əm, Sḵwx̱wú7mesh and səlilwətaɬ territories, 27 JUNE 2024—A scoping paper released today explores a new approach to address a concern Indigenous Peoples have been raising for decades: poor quality homes are causing severe health impacts in Indigenous communities across Canada. The paper is the first in a series that is part of the Healthy Energy Homes project, a partnership between the Canadian Climate Institute’s Indigenous Research stream and Indigenous Clean Energy.

The scoping paper, Beyond Sustainability: The Power of Indigenous Healthy Energy Homes, shows that current approaches to housing in Indigenous communities are rooted in a colonial legacy that has resulted in unhealthy housing conditions that include poor ventilation, overcrowding, and homes that are unsuitable for their location or environment. This has led to a variety of severe health challenges—thousands of people in communities suffer from respiratory, cardiovascular, and mental illnesses that are either aggravated or directly caused by inadequate and unsafe housing. For example, tuberculosis transmission is at least 20 times higher among Indigenous people than non-Indigenous people. These unsafe housing conditions and related health challenges are also made worse by climate change impacts such as heat waves.

Investing in Healthy Energy Homes that are energy-efficient, climate resilient, and support the well-being of inhabitants could address many of these challenges and unlock multiple benefits including reduced healthcare costs, emissions reductions, and savings for households. The paper finds that doing this will require a new approach in which housing strategies—and funding decisions—take a holistic view of housing issues and are developed in partnership with Indigenous communities.”

Beyond Sustainability is the first part of a larger project—undertaken in collaboration between the Climate Institute’s Indigenous Research stream and Indigenous Clean Energy—that focuses on policy changes for unlocking positive interconnections between Indigenous housing, energy, and health. This first scoping paper, which draws upon findings from literature and dialogue with experts and Indigenous rightsholders, sets the foundation for the broader project and provides important context to both the challenges and innovative solutions linked to housing in Indigenous communities.

QUOTES

“This collaborative paper has brought together experts from across sectors and communities to work together to show how interconnected Indigenous housing and health outcomes are. Building Healthy Energy Homes for communities could deliver nested benefits that help address poor health outcomes in Indigenous communities, reducing emissions, and building climate resilience.”

—Janna Wale, Policy Advisor, Indigenous Research, Canadian Climate Institute

“Proactively investing in Indigenous housing that is climate resilient and energy efficient can offset health costs later down the road. Investing in long-term solutions that take a different approach to housing will benefit both those who are living in healthier homes and communities as a whole. Healthy Energy Homes can help relieve the pressure on overburdened healthcare systems and, if led by and done in partnership with Indigenous communities, support the process of reconciliation.”

—Maria Shallard, Director, Indigenous Research, Canadian Climate Institute

“Healthy Energy Homes is a new concept in housing, one that is centered on the people and community, as well as delivering on energy efficiency, cultural values, and greenhouse gas reduction. The housing situation in Indigenous communities has been a long-standing problem that will continue unless all orders of government not only provide further investments of time and money but, most importantly, take a different and more coordinated, holistic approach to address this issue, one that is informed by an Indigenous-led approach to Indigenous housing.”

—Ian Scholten, Director of Efficiency and Transportation, Indigenous Clean Energy

“In almost every Indigenous community, housing remains a major issue, if not the most pressing one. Unfortunately, many homes are built inefficiently, leading to poor health outcomes and shorter building lifespans, exacerbating the housing crisis. This report highlights how promoting sustainable Indigenous housing can offer a high return on investment by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and fostering healthier communities. We hope this scoping paper sparks broader discussions about mobilizing capital to seize this opportunity. Finding solutions will require creativity and bravery, but the urgency and potential impact are too significant to ignore.”

—James Jenkins, Executive Director, Indigenous Clean Energy

Contact

Janina Stajic
Communications Manager
250-618-2360
jstajic@climateinstitute.ca

Planned shift from gas to electric heat required to avoid high costs and emissions: report

13 June 2024, OTTAWA—New research published today by the Canadian Climate Institute finds that a system-wide shift from gas to electric heat is the lowest-cost path through the clean energy transition. The report, Heat Exchange: How today’s policy choices will drive or delay Canada’s transition to clean, reliable heat, concludes that provincial government action will be necessary to protect reliability and avoid high costs for consumers as the energy transition accelerates.

The report finds that changing the energy mix for building heat in both homes and businesses—and changing energy infrastructure to support the shift from gas to electricity—will be necessary to reduce emissions from buildings and meet Canada’s climate goals while also minimizing costs. If investment in the gas network continues to grow and gas connections continue to be the default for new buildings, then governments, shareholders, and remaining gas consumers could find themselves on the hook for the costs of overbuilt and underused gas infrastructure, as more people switch to cleaner options.

Heat Exchange presents a case for provinces taking a new approach in planning and regulating electric and gas utility infrastructure to better protect the public interest, now and in the future.

FACTS FROM HEAT EXCHANGE

In all provinces and scenarios the Climate Institute examined, the lowest-cost pathway to net zero by 2050 for the economy results in electricity becoming the dominant energy supply for building heat.
Reaching net zero emissions in residential, commercial and institutional buildings means substantial declines in gas use in every province—in places like Ontario, gas usage drops between 89 to 98 per cent from today’s levels. In Alberta, demand drops between 70 and 87 per cent.
Today, more than five million homes in Canada (34 per cent) already heat with electricity, mostly baseboards. To meet net zero, 99 per cent of home heating in 2050 is projected to be entirely or mostly powered by electricity, including, in some cases, heat pumps backed up by gas in a hybrid system.
Our research found that a cost-effective energy transition in buildings will mean heat pumps are used to heat the vast majority of homes by 2050. While scarce low-carbon gases like biomethane and hydrogen will likely see some use in industrial buildings,they are expected to play only a marginal role in heating commercial and residential buildings.

QUOTES

“Protecting consumers in the energy transition means making electricity the default in new buildings in most cases, instead of gas. While the infrastructure we’re building today will be with us for 40 to 60 years, this research shows that achieving climate goals will mean a shrinking role for gas well before then. A manageable transition that protects affordable and reliable building heating requires provinces to stop expanding gas networks now, and start planning for the future.”
— SACHI GIBSON, RESEARCH DIRECTOR, MITIGATION

“Expanding gas infrastructure to heat buildings today would be like investing heavily in a chain of video rental stores 15 years ago. Energy systems need to plan for the reality that is arriving on our doorstep. The smart approach to protect consumers and ensure affordable, reliable energy in the future is to grow the electricity system—not lock in more dependence on gas.”
— JASON DION, SENIOR RESEARCH DIRECTOR

“Right now, regulators make choices about infrastructure that will affect ratepayers’ costs for decades—but those decisions are not required to factor in climate goals, including reaching net zero emissions. That big disconnect could drive up energy bills in the decades ahead. Provinces need to make forward-looking decisions about energy system investments, and they need to make plans and policies today to protect consumers in the economy-wide energy transition that’s underway.”
— KATE HARLAND, RESEARCH LEAD, MITIGATION