Canada’s early emissions numbers are a win for accountability and show progress

OTTAWA— Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist at the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the federal government’s early release of Canada’s official greenhouse gas inventory for 2023: 

“The early release of Canada’s latest greenhouse gas numbers for 2023 is a big win for public accountability in climate policy and shows important progress being made cutting emissions and building a cleaner economy. It gives policymakers and the public an earlier look at how national emissions are trending and provides an opportunity to accelerate policy action if needed. 

“The official numbers for 2023 align closely with our own Early Estimate of National Emissions for 2023 released this September, which showed modest progress reducing national emissions, but uneven results across sectors. Our team at the Canadian Climate Institute has published early estimates of emissions that have aligned with Canada’s official emissions numbers now for each of the past three reporting years. 

“The government’s official 2023 early numbers show emissions dropped slightly in 2023 by about one per cent from the previous year (0.9 per cent) and now sit nearly 9 per cent below 2005 levels, the baseline year for Canada’s official emissions targets. 

“Our research has shown climate policy is working to cut carbon pollution—Canada’s emissions would be higher today without the actions taken to date by all levels of government since 2015. Existing climate policies are expected to prevent 226 Mt of carbon emissions by 2030, equivalent to the current emissions profiles of Quebec and Ontario combined. 

“Governments across the country can build on this progress by following through and finalizing policies that they are developing or have announced to deliver even deeper emissions cuts by 2030.” 

RESOURCES

News release | Experts estimate modest drop in 2023 emissions, with big differences across sectors

Database | Early Estimate of National Emissions 2023

Fact sheet | Early Estimate of National Emissions 2023

440 Megatonnes Insight | 2023 emissions estimate shows modest decline, but oil and gas emissions undermine progress

Report| Independent Assessment of Canada’s Emissions Reduction Plan

CONTACT 

Krystal Northey 
Public Affairs Lead
Canadian Climate Institute
250-818-3748
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca

Clean electricity regulations are a flexible and pragmatic tool to reduce emissions and attract investment

OTTAWA— Jason Dion, Senior Research Director at the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the release of the federal government’s final Clean Electricity Regulations and Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for clean electricity: 

“The federal government’s final Clean Electricity Regulations are pragmatic, flexible, and achievable, and part of a larger package of measures designed to help keep electricity affordable and reliable.

“Producing and using more clean electricity is foundational to meeting Canada’s climate goals, attracting investment and remaining competitive. The final regulations will help provinces and territories make the necessary investments  in bigger, cleaner, and smarter electricity systems, while allowing some flexibility when it comes to limited use of gas generation in the interim. This added flexibility in design—combined with the billions of dollars in support for provinces and territories through the Investment Tax Credit for clean electricity—will make the regulations more achievable. 

“The final ITC for clean electricity includes a newly-announced requirement for province-led energy roadmaps that detail how a jurisdiction intends to develop its energy system in line with Canada’s 2050 climate goals. This kind of simple condition, as recommended by the Canada Electricity Advisory Council and other experts, helps provide needed policy clarity for provincial utilities and regulators—while respecting provinces’ jurisdiction over electricity. 

“Demand for electricity is only going to grow in the decades ahead. As it does, governments need to prioritize keeping electricity affordable and reliable. Done right, the transition to clean electricity can save people money and reduce energy bills. Our research has shown that, by switching from fossil fuels to clean electricity, Canadian households could spend 12 per cent less on energy, on average, by 2050. 

“Many provinces and territories are already making big progress building bigger, cleaner, and smarter electricity systems, and these policy announcements will help accelerate that progress. Those governments have the tools and authorities necessary to drive a cost-effective transition that prioritizes electricity affordability and reliability for households and businesses across Canada—and the ball is now in their court.”

RESOURCES

CONTACT 

Krystal Northey (Pacific Time)
Public Affairs Lead
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca

Canada adopts balanced approach to 2035 climate target

TORONTO — Anna Kanduth, Director of the Canadian Climate Institute’s 440 Megatonnes project, made the following statement in response to the announcement of Canada’s 2035 emissions reduction target: 

“Canada’s new 2035 climate target range is achievable and balances the need for sustained progress cutting emissions, while also factoring in important considerations like affordability, competitiveness, and economic growth. 

“At the high end, the official target range of a 45 to 50 per cent reduction from 2005 levels overlaps with the range the Canadian Climate Institute recommended based on our independent analysis of options for Canada’s 2035 target. 

“The Institute’s 2035 target analysis was commissioned by the independent Net-Zero Advisory Body to help inform their advice to the federal government. Our analysis examined the trade-offs of more or less ambition by 2035. We evaluated six potential targets against a set of criteria, including affordability, the economy, competitiveness, emissions reductions, and feasibility, and found that a target within the 49 to 52 per cent range would provide the best balance across these objectives. 

“Ultimately, climate action is not a pass or fail test. Ambitious targets matter, but even more important is having strong and stable policies in place to reduce emissions while driving low-carbon growth and ensuring Canada remains competitive. To that end, governments at all levels should implement and strengthen existing policy commitments this decade to get emissions on track to Canada’s 2030 target, and build on those to drive further progress by 2035.

“While the low-end of the new target range is more achievable in the short term, it may affect Canada’s long-term competitiveness, largely by delaying some clean investment decisions and increasing the risk of stranded fossil fuel assets in the future. 

“In the months ahead, our global peers and trading partners will announce their 2035 climate goals, and many nations, including the UK, Japan and Brazil, are leveling-up their ambition. Canada can’t risk falling behind in an expanding global market for clean energy solutions and an international marketplace where carbon tariffs and competition are heating up.”   

RESOURCES

CONTACT 

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Pacific Time)
Public Affairs Lead
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

New research: modernizing industrial carbon pricing systems is necessary to deliver big emissions cuts

OTTAWA—New research shows that the single-biggest policy driver of emissions reductions in Canada is at risk of becoming significantly less effective unless governments make changes to the way they are designed. 

The research from 440 Megatonnes, a project of the Canadian Climate Institute, finds that improving industrial carbon pricing systems—also known as large-emitter trading systems (LETS)—across the country could double their emissions impact. Without policy changes, Canada could miss out on between 18 and 48 megatonnes of emissions cuts in 2030, equivalent to three quarters of British Columbia’s total emissions, at the high end.

Large-emitter trading systems are important tools for reducing emissions from trade-exposed industries while protecting economic competitiveness and avoiding carbon tariffs. Different systems are in place in provinces and territories across the country. In each system, top-performing firms that reduce emissions can generate credits to sell, while lower-performing firms have an incentive to reduce more emissions to avoid paying for them. 

440 Megatonnes worked with Navius Research to model emissions reductions from LETS under current and announced policies. The research shows that the way these systems are currently designed can undercut the incentive for businesses to reduce emissions, largely due to problems with the way credit markets operate. Governments can address these problems by requiring stronger emissions performance standards, reducing overlap between LETS and other climate policies, and improving transparency and the way credit markets operate.  

Unless changes are made to provincial and federal policy, industrial carbon pricing with oversupplied credit markets would push Canada further away from its emissions targets, reducing projected reductions to just 32 to 33 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, from 36 per cent if system problems were fixed. 

Strengthening system design could close this gap and ensure steady progress toward the country’s 2030 target, while protecting industry’s ability to compete. Previous research from 440 Megatonnes has shown how these systems support business competitiveness and have low compliance costs.

Quotes

“Industrial carbon pricing can slash emissions across Canada and keep industry competitive at the same time—but only if the systems work as intended. That’s even more important as more of Canada’s major trading partners put carbon tariffs in place. Governments have the policy tools they need to fix this problem, they just need to open the toolbox and get to work.”

—Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist, Canadian Climate Institute 

“Industrial carbon pricing is the single-biggest driver of emissions in Canada, but only if it’s designed well. The current patchwork of systems across the country should be monitored and adjusted to deliver big emissions reductions and help keep industries in Canada competitive.”

—Dale Beugin, Executive Vice President, Canadian Climate Institute 

Resources

Contact

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Communications & Media Relations Specialist
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

New climate taxonomy and disclosure rules set to drive drive long-term investment in Canada

OTTAWA — Jonathan Arnold, Research Lead in Clean Growth at the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the release of the federal government’s climate investment taxonomy framework:  

“The federal government’s commitment today to a credible, science-based climate investment taxonomy sets the stage for a major acceleration of Canada’s clean energy transition. By the federal government’s own estimate, more than $115 billion per year in new clean energy and transition-aligned investments is needed to build Canada’s net zero economy. A Canadian climate investment taxonomy can help unlock the funds that will build those projects.  

“A climate investment taxonomy will establish a standardized language for how investors and capital markets categorize financial investments and assets that are fit for the transition to net zero. Clearly defining those opportunities will help cut emissions from Canada’s most energy-intensive industries, which will increase their global competitiveness. 

“Today’s announcement builds on the blueprint developed by the Sustainable Finance Action Council, which represents the 25 largest financial institutions in the country, and in partnership with the Canadian Climate Institute. The next step, as laid out by Minister Chrystia Freeland today, will see the creation of a new climate investment taxonomy that includes definitions for both “green” and “transition-aligned” investments. This taxonomy will create clarity for capital markets seeking sustainable investment opportunities.

“The government’s proposed framework  aligns with global best practices for “green” taxonomies, while laying the groundwork for a “transition” taxonomy—the “missing middle” in climate finance. Critically, today’s announcement stresses the need to exclude new natural gas projects from the taxonomy framework. It also emphasizes the importance of having a credible, independent governance structure for how the sector-specific criteria and pathways are determined. 

“In addition, the government announced that federally regulated corporations in Canada will be required to disclose how climate change and the global energy transition will impact their business and future profitability. This change is an important step to prepare Canada’s economy for the rising threat of a rapidly changing climate and the profound transformation already underway in international capital markets.  

“Canada is well positioned to take a global leadership role in these areas. Done well, Canada’s climate investment taxonomy and updated risk disclosure requirements will help attract global capital to compete with our neighbours to the south.”  

RESOURCES

CONTACT 

Catharine Tunnacliffe
Communications Director
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883
ctunnacliffe@climateinstitute.ca

Experts estimate modest drop in 2023 emissions, with big differences across sectors

OTTAWA—The latest Early Estimate of National Emissions (EENE) from the Canadian Climate Institute shows a modest improvement in national emissions in 2023, with a drop of about 1 per cent from 2022 levels. Progress was uneven across sectors, with electricity showing large drops in emissions while oil and gas emissions rose.  

The independent estimate finds Canada’s emissions now sit at 8 per cent below 2005 levels, the baseline year for Canada’s 2030 emissions target of a 40 to 45 per cent reduction. Strong economic growth in 2023 pushed emissions up by 8.6 Mt CO2e from the previous year. However, the impact of climate policy and changing markets, including accelerating clean energy technology deployment, succeeded in reducing emissions by 14.2 Mt, resulting in an overall net decrease of 5.6 Mt.

At a sectoral level, oil and gas continued a long-standing trend of steadily rising emissions—up 1 per cent or 2.2 megatonnes (Mt) from 2022—and now makes up 31 per cent of Canada’s national total. 

By contrast, emissions from the electricity sector continued to drop, and now sit 62 per cent lower than they were in 2005. 

A slight rise in emissions from transport (+1.6 per cent; +2.5 Mt) was driven by higher domestic aviation activity, whereas buildings saw a drop in emissions (-5.6 per cent; -4.9 Mt) primarily due to a warmer El Niño year that was supercharged by climate change. 

In total, Canada emitted 702 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt) in 2023, down 5.6 Mt from 2022, the estimate finds. 

Research from the Canadian Climate Institute has previously shown the significant impact climate policy is having cutting carbon pollution—progress that is expected to be more pronounced the longer those policies are in effect. Canada’s emissions would be higher today without the actions taken to date by all levels of government since 2015 and rising to 41 per cent higher by 2030. Put another way, existing climate policies are expected to prevent 226 Mt of carbon emissions by 2030, equivalent to the current emissions profiles of Quebec and Ontario combined. Following through and finalizing developing and announced policies will deliver even deeper emissions cuts by 2030. 

Yet Canada must build momentum to achieve its 2030 target and support future competitiveness in the global energy transition. The Institute has recommended all orders of government, including provinces and territories, quickly implement previously announced emission-reduction policies, strengthen existing ones, and introduce new measures.

QUOTES

“Once again, progress in Canada’s emissions reductions is starkly different across sectors. Governments right across the country need to accelerate developing policy and strengthen measures already in place, like electrification and industrial carbon pricing systems.” 

— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“Our early estimate shows that rising oil and gas and transportation emissions are offsetting gains made in electricity and buildings, slowing Canada’s climate progress. While decoupling emissions from economic growth is a good sign, this is a long game—governments need to build momentum and set strong policy foundations for lasting climate progress.”

—Dave Sawyer, Principal Economist, Canadian Climate Institute

RESOURCES

CONTACT 

Catharine Tunnacliffe
Communications Director
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883
ctunnacliffe@climateinstitute.ca

FACT SHEET: Climate change and flooding

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In August 2024, the remnants of Hurricane Debby brought record-breaking floods to Quebec, inundating 55 communities. Just a month before, nearly 10 centimetres of rain fell in Toronto in three hours, overwhelming the city’s infrastructure and flooding many homes and businesses. And in November 2021, an atmospheric river unleashed record-breaking rain in British Columbia, triggering landslides and floods that caused extensive damage, cutting off main access routes to several areas of the province, severely impairing the economy.

As climate change worsens, Canadians will experience a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of these kinds of flood events. Warmer air, caused by increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, holds more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall and more intense storms. This, combined with melting snow packs, rising sea levels, and changing weather patterns, has created the conditions for more severe and unpredictable flooding. These floods are devastating for communities, economies, and livelihoods.

Climate change is driving increasingly severe and frequent floods

  • Because of climate change, most regions in the country will experience increased rainfall,  higher extreme rainfall, and increased severity in coastal storms (Zhang et al. 2019; Vasseur et al. 2017).
  • Research shows that climate change intensifies many contributing factors that combine to elevate flood risk, including heavier rainfall and storm surges amplified by sea level rise (Denchak 2023; Greenan et al. 2019).
  • Climate heating means that warmer air can hold more water than cooler air, increasing the risk of heavier and more extreme rainfall events. More rain is likely to fall in short, intense bursts rather than being spread out over a longer period (Westra et al. 2014). 
  • Increasingly frequent and severe short-duration rainfall events increase the likelihood of flash floods, especially in urban areas, by overwhelming storm sewers and drainage systems (Westra et al. 2014; Sandink 2015; Brown et al. 2021).
  • Parts of southern British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces have seen an increase of two to three heavy rainfall days per year on average (Zhang et al. 2019; Vincent et al. 2018).
  • Climate models project that by the end of the century, an extreme rainfall event that now occurs once every 20 years in Canada could happen every five years, and the amount of 24-hour extreme precipitation that occurs once in 20 years, on average, is projected to increase by 12 per cent (Zhang et al. 2019).

Floods can severely damage homes and infrastructure, costing billions of dollars

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

More frequent and intense floods put people and communities at risk

  • Heavy rainfall events can overwhelm small drinking water treatment systems, degrading water quality and increasing the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks (Wang et al. 2018).  
  • Over half of the waterborne disease outbreaks in the past 50 years in the United States occurred after episodes of extreme rainfall (Charron et al. 2011).
  • Floods can be fatal, as people drown while wading or driving through flood waters or are trapped in flooded buildings (Government of Canada 2021).
  • Injuries are common during and after floods due to swiftly moving heavy objects, damaged electrical wiring and appliances, and the risk of hypothermia from cold floodwater (Government of Canada 2021).
  • The psychosocial impacts of flooding are significant, increasing family conflicts, financial stress, and feelings of isolation. In some cases, flooding can trigger or exacerbate mental health conditions such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (Glenn and Myre 2022).
  • A few months after the Quebec floods of 2019, 44 per cent of those affected had moderate to high symptoms of post-traumatic stress, 21 per cent had symptoms of anxiety disorders, and 20 per cent had developed mood disorders (Institut national de santé publique du Québec 2024).
  • Flooded buildings are quickly colonized by mold, fungi, and bacteria, which can cause or aggravate skin, allergy, eye, respiratory, and gastrointestinal problems such as asthma, conjunctivitis, and otitis (Institut national de santé publique du Québec 2024).

Governments can act to protect communities from worsening flood risk

  • Flooding will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere continues to increase. Government action to manage this growing risk and limit further emissions is essential.
  • Because the impacts of climate change on flooding are already here and getting worse from the emissions that have already occurred, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased risk of floods today and into the future.
  • Some of the key adaptation actions governments can take to reduce flood risk and protect communities include:
    • Shifting development away from high-risk flood zones: To prevent placing more homes in harm’s way, provincial and municipal governments could restrict building in areas with high flood risk. In moderate-risk zones or areas prone to urban flooding, it’s essential to flood-proof new developments to minimize water damage (World Bank 2017).
    • Enhancing flood protection infrastructure at the community level: Investing in new and improved flood protection infrastructure, such as levees, floodwalls, and nature-based solutions, can cost-effectively safeguard communities at risk of flooding (Ness et al. 2021).
    • Support proactive relocation from high-risk areas: In a few areas where flood risk is too high to provide adequate protection, governments should engage with homeowners and communities to consider proactive relocation, offering appropriate assistance and incentives for moving to safer areas (Public Safety Canada 2022).

References and resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
  • Sarah Miller is Research Lead in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Pacific Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé

Communications and Media Relations Specialist
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525 

FACT SHEET: Climate change and drought

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Climate change will increase the risk and severity of droughts in parts of Canada that already struggle with water shortages, like the southern Prairies and the interior of British Columbia (Bonsal et al. 2019). A drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that lasts long enough to cause serious water shortages for natural ecosystems, agriculture, and people.

Climate change is making droughts more frequent and more severe

  • Climate change has made droughts more frequent and severe around the world, and the trend is expected to continue to worsen (IPCC 2023, p. 67; Chiang et al. 2023). 
  • Climate change exacerbates drought, both because it shifts rainfall patterns and because it increases temperatures, leaving ecosystems increasingly vulnerable to dry conditions. Rising temperatures strain water supplies by increasing both evaporation rates and water consumption by plants (Walker and Van Loon 2023), resulting in drier soil conditions and water scarcity (Overpeck and Udall 2020).
  • Rising global temperatures alter precipitation patterns (United Nations n.d.; Zhang et al. 2019), reduce snowpack levels, and threaten glacial run-off as glaciers recede.
  • Climate change is also causing droughts to develop faster, making “flash droughts” more common (Yuan et al. 2023). This new reality makes forecasting and monitoring droughts more difficult.
  • Over the 21st century, the total land area subject to drought is expected to increase, with over 40 per cent of global land area expected to experience year-round drying by the end of the century, even under low-emissions scenarios (IPCC 2023, p. 1119; Cook et al. 2020).  

Droughts are costly disasters

  • Droughts were an important factor in the recent dramatic increase in crop insurance payments in Canada, which surged from $890 million in 2018 to $4.897 billion in 2022 (Arnason 2024). 
  • Drought insurance payouts to Alberta’s farmers and agribusinesses reached a record $326.5 million in 2023 , more than tripling the payouts from the 2021 drought, according to the Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (Smith 2024).
  • Due to severe drought, crop production in Saskatchewan fell by a record-high 47 per cent in 2021. That year, Saskatchewan was the only province to see its economy contract (-0.3 per cent). Statistics Canada reported that while “activity was up in most sectors of the economy, those gains were entirely negated by the worst drought in nearly two decades” (Statistics Canada 2022).
  • In the Abitibi region of Québec, hay producers received a record $6.8 million in compensation for the 2023 drought, more than triple the annual average (Cameron 2024).
  • Droughts limit hydroelectricity generation, cutting revenue for utilities, increasing reliance on fossil-fuelled generation (Statistics Canada 2024), and making electricity more expensive for consumers (CBC News 2023).
  • In January 2024, drought conditions in both B.C. and Manitoba meant lower reservoir levels at the hydroelectric facility, forcing the two provinces to import power from other jurisdictions (Canadian Press 2024).
  • In 2021, a drought in Manitoba limited power production, resulting in a $248-million loss for Manitoba Hydro (Manitoba Hydro 2022).

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

Droughts threaten the health of Canadians

  • Droughts can degrade drinking water quality and increase the risk of waterborne diseases, as sluggish flows and more evaporation concentrate contaminants in water bodies and promote toxic algal blooms (Yusa et al. 2015).
  • Droughts can contribute to respiratory issues (Yusa et al. 2015), because of windblown dust from dried-out soils. 
  • Droughts in northwest British Columbia, particularly during July and August when salmon are migrating (Curran and Marsden 2021) to their upstream spawning areas, can cause severe and lasting damage to their populations, and to the ecosystems and Peoples that rely on them (Curran and Marsden 2021).

Droughts worsen the risk of floods and wildfires

  • During droughts, trees and plants are weakened or killed. Dry conditions also prevent new buds from growing (Natural Resources Canada 2024) and forests from regenerating. Weakened trees and plants have a harder time defending themselves against insects and diseases, making them more likely to die and become fuel for wildfire.
  • Drought can increase the risk of flooding. Dry conditions hurt soil quality and kill off vegetation, making soil less able to absorb water. If heavy rainfall follows a drought, water can run off more easily, which increases the risk of flooding (Bonsal et al. 2019).  

Governments can do a lot to protect Canadians from the worsening risk of droughts

  • Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.
  • Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased risk of drought today. Here are a few specific measures governments can take:
    • Strengthening agricultural resilience: Canada can adapt to drought by improving early warning systems, such as the Canadian Drought Monitor (Agriculture and Agri Food Canada 2024), to help producers make informed decisions. Investing in irrigation systems and water storage and offering incentives for planting drought-tolerant crop varieties can further strengthen resilience in the agricultural sector. It is also important to enhance crop insurance and disaster relief programs to better support farmers during droughts (Bonsal et al. 2011).
    • Proactive planning: All orders of governments should proactively plan for drought by developing and implementing drought response plans, such as Alberta’s comprehensive Drought Response Plan. These plans can include strategies for managing water resources and coordinating efforts across affected sectors and communities (Government of Alberta 2024).
    • Investing in structural measures for hydroelectricity: The hydroelectricity sector could adapt to drought by continuing to invest in water management infrastructure, such as reservoirs, to ensure that energy production can continue during low water levels (B.C. Hydro 2024). 

Resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
  • Sarah Miller is Research Lead in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Pacific Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé
Communications and Media Relations Specialist
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525 

References 

Agriculture and Agri Food Canada. 2024. Canadian Drought Monitor. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor 

Arnason, Robert. 2024. “Crop Insurance Costs Explode.” The Western Producer, February 29. https://www.producer.com/news/crop-insurance-costs-explode/  

BC Hydro. 2024. “How we manage drought conditions.” https://www.bchydro.com/energy-in-bc/operations/transmission-reservoir-data/drought-management.html 

Bonsal, B.R., D.L. Peters, et al.. 2019. “Changes in freshwater availability across Canada; Chapter 6 in Canada’s Changing Climate Report.” Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/6-0/ 

Cameron, Daphné. 2024. “Compensations pour Pertes Agricoles: Un Milliard pour les Agriculteurs après une Année Désastreuse.” La Presse, March 21. https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2024-03-21/compensations-pour-pertes-agricoles/un-milliard-pour-les-agriculteurs-apres-une-annee-desastreuse.php.  

Canadian Press. 2024. “Drought in Western Canada Impacting Hydropower Production as Reservoirs Run Low.” Business in Vancouver, January 29. https://www.biv.com/news/resources-agriculture/drought-western-canada-impacting-hydropower-production-reservoirs-run-low-8295183  

CBC News. 2023. “Drought is causing B.C. utilities to import more power — and that will affect your bills in 2024.” December 21. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-electric-rate-changes-as-province-imports-power-1.7065802

Chiang, Felicia, Omid Mazdiyasni, and Amir AghaKouchak. 2021. “Evidence of Anthropogenic Impacts on Global Drought Frequency, Duration, and Intensity.” Nature Communications 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w

Cook, Benjamin I., Justin S. Mankin, Kate Marvel, A. Park Williams, Jason E. Smerdon, and Kevin J. Anchukaitis. 2020.  “Twenty-First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios”. Earth Future 8 (6).  https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001461 

Curran, Deborah, and Tara Marsden. 2021. Ayookxw responding to climate change. Canadian Climate Institute. June 21. https://climateinstitute.ca/publications/ayookxw-responding-to-climate-change/ 

Government of Alberta. 2024. Alberta Drought Response Plan. Environment and Protected Areas. August 14. https://www.alberta.ca/system/files/epa-alberta-drought-response-plan.pdf 

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2023. Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Manitoba Hydro. 2022. “Manitoba Hydro posts $248 million consolidated net loss due to drought: 2021-22 annual report.”  September 29. https://www.hydro.mb.ca/articles/2022/09/manitoba_hydro_posts_248_million_consolidated_net_loss_due_to_drought_2021_22_annual_report/

Natural Resources Canada. 2024. “Drought.” Natural Resources Canada, April 12. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/drought/17772.

Overpeck, Jonathan T., and Bradley Udall. 2020. “Climate Change and the Aridification of North America.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117(22): 11856–11858. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006323117   

Smith, Madeline. 2024. “Farmers, Ranchers Worry About Coming Season Amid Drought, High Pasture Insurance Payouts.” CBC, February 26. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-farmer-rancher-drought-insurance-1.7124671.  

Statistics Canada. 2022. “Drought drags down Saskatchewan Economy in 2021”. Statistics Canada. September 23. https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/1852-drought-drags-down-saskatchewan-economy-2021  

Statistics Canada. 2024. An energy snapshot: First quarter of 2024 review. https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/6447-energy-snapshot-first-quarter-2024-review

United Nations. n.d. “Water – At the Center of the Climate Crisis.” United Nations. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/water

Walker, David, and Anne F. Van Loon. 2023. “Droughts Are Coming on Faster.” Science 380(6641): 130–132. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adh3097 

World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/   

Yuan, Xing, Yumiao Wang, Peng Ji, Peili Wu, Justin Sheffield, and Jason A. Otkin. 2023. “A Global Transition to Flash Droughts under Climate Change.” Science, 380(6641), 187–191. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn6301 

Yusa, Anna, Peter Berry, June J. Cheng, Nicholas Ogden, Barrie Bonsal, Ronald Stewart, and Ruth Waldick. 2015. “Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12(7): 8359–8412. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120708359  

Zhang, Xuebin, Greg Flato, Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Lucie Vincent, Hui Wan, Xiaolan L. Wang, Robin Rong, John Fyfe, Guilong Li, and Viatchelsav V. Kharin. 2019. “Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada.” In Canada’s Changing Climate Report, edited by E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen, 112–193. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/4-3/summary/

This summer’s climate-fuelled disasters have cost Canadians billions

OTTAWA, 4 September 2024 —The financial toll from this year’s two biggest extreme weather disasters have already surpassed $1.8 billion, counting only insured losses, according to a new online tool created by the Canadian Climate Institute. A single afternoon of heavy rain in Toronto caused flooding that may wind up costing almost $1 billion. The wildfire that destroyed parts of Jasper will cost at least $880 million in insured losses alone. This new tool, accessible at ClimateChangeCosts.ca, tracks estimates of the financial impact of climate-related disasters and extreme weather across the country. It will be updated in real time as these sorts of events continue to become more common.  

Because the impacts of climate change are difficult to calculate and slow to tally, the costs on the map present only a fraction of the damages from recent extreme weather and climate-fuelled disasters. Costs from weather-related events such as the recent flooding in Montreal and the 2024 wildfire season will be added as more data becomes available. 

Canada has already warmed 1.7 degrees since 1948 due to the release of heat-trapping pollution, faster than the global average. Nine out of the ten costliest years for insured damages from extreme weather in Canada have occurred since 2011, adding up to more than $27 billion in insured losses, according to the Insurance Bureau of Canada.

A 2022 Climate Institute report showed how climate change is eroding economic growth at both the national and sector levels, straining government budgets, reducing household income, and damaging Canada’s competitiveness. Economic damage from climate change is expected to cost the Canadian economy an estimated $25 billion by 2025—that’s equal to half a year’s projected growth. 

Proactive adaptation measures and policies can limit the damages from the impacts of climate change, however. Institute research finds that such measures and policies can cut future costs in half, saving billions of dollars, and making life more affordable for households. A dollar invested in proactive adaptation measures, the Institute has found, can return $13-$15 in direct and indirect benefits. And if adaptation measures are combined with global emissions reductions, future costs could be reduced by three-quarters, putting Canada on a path to a more stable and affordable future.

The interactive map currently features reports from the past 12 months, and will be updated regularly as more costs are reported. While Canada does not yet have the capacity to analyze the contribution of climate change to all extreme weather, the map provides a clear and growing picture of how floods, wildfires and other events are increasingly straining Canada’s economy.

QUOTES

“Climate change has a direct negative impact on our budgets and bank accounts. Failing to grasp the economic threat posed by climate change has led many Canadians and decision-makers to drastically underestimate both the economic benefits of climate policies and the cost of failing to act. This map spotlights the financial risks we face and sounds the alarm on the need for immediate measures to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and better prepare Canadian communities for the impacts of climate change.” — Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“Canada’s climate is changing and everyone, everywhere, is experiencing the effects. The economy is highly sensitive to this threat, and we estimate that the average Canadian household currently loses at least $700 each year due to climate-related costs. We need to reckon with the price tag for these massive disasters and do everything we can to control the damage. As our new interactive map shows, the costs of extreme weather events, which we know are exacerbated by climate change, are measurable and mounting.” – Ryan Ness, Adaptation Research Director, Canadian Climate Institute

RESOURCES

CONTACT 

Claudine Brulé

Communications and Media Relations Specialist

(514) 358-8525

cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

FACT SHEET: Climate change and heat waves

Download fact sheet

Climate change, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, is causing more frequent and intense heat waves (ClimateData.ca 2024). These heat waves are threatening the safety, well-being, and prosperity of Canadians—even in cities that have historically had more moderate climates, such as Vancouver, Whitehorse, and Halifax. 

Globally, 2023 was the hottest year on record, and 2024 is on track to be even hotter (World Meteorological Organization 2024). Canada, which is warming faster than anywhere else on earth, is suffering the consequences of the overheating climate (McBean 2024). 

Climate change fuels heat waves

  • Canada is warming twice as fast as the global average, and Canada’s Arctic is warming nearly four times as fast (Government of Canada 2019; Rantanen et al. 2022). 
  • Climate change increases the frequency of extreme heat, makes heat waves move more slowly, and results in more frequent and severe heat domes (Seneviratne et al. 2021; Borenstein 2024; Bratu et al. 2022).
  • Environment and Climate Change Canada has determined that the June 2024 heat wave that struck central and Eastern Canada was two to 10 times more likely as a result of climate change, with temperatures over 10 degrees higher than normal in parts of Quebec and Atlantic Canada (Shingler 2024).

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

Climate-fuelled heat makes wildfires worse  

  • Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions (high temperatures, low humidity, and drought conditions) in Eastern Canada in 2023, and made Québec’s 2023 fire season around 50 per cent more intense (World Weather Attribution 2023). 
  • Heat waves make it easier for wildfires to start and spread. Intense heat makes lightning, the primary cause of wildfires, more likely to occur (Pérez-Invernón et al. 2023), and makes vegetation drier and more flammable, facilitating the spread of wildfires (Natural Resources Canada 2024).
  • During the 2021 heat wave in B.C., the number of active wildfires rose from six to 175, with fires that spread during the heat wave consuming nearly 79,000 hectares, including the entire town of Lytton (White et al. 2023).
  • For more information on climate change and wildfires, please see our wildfires fact sheet.

Climate-fuelled extreme heat takes a significant toll on Canadian safety, well-being, and prosperity

  • A study in Nature found that between 1981 and 2018, 37 per cent of heat-related deaths globally can be attributed to climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021). This increased mortality is evident on every continent. 
  • Elevated death rates have been documented during and immediately following heat waves in Canada (Government of Canada 2024).  The British Columbia heat wave of June 25 to July 2, 2021, saw an estimated 619 heat-related deaths, making it the deadliest disaster in B.C.’s recorded history (BC Coroners Service 2022). 
  • Climate scientists found that the 2021 B.C. heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change (Philip et al. 2022).
  • A 2024 study by the Institut national de la recherche scientifique concludes that elevated summer temperatures in Quebec are associated with 470 deaths, 225 hospitalizations, 36,000 emergency room visits, 7,200 ambulance transports, and 15,000 calls to Info-Santé every year (Boudreault et al. 2024). 
  • Our 2021 report The Health Costs of Climate Change projected that the costs of heat-related deaths and reduced quality of life from extreme heat in Canada would range from $3 billion to $3.9 billion per year by mid-century (Clark et al. 2021). 
  • Our research shows that the 2021 heat wave in B.C. caused $12 million in additional healthcare costs, and that without action on adaptation and health system preparation, the province could average 1,370 heat-related deaths per year by 2030 (Beugin et al. 2023).
  • The International Labour Organization finds that 2.4 billion workers, fully 70 per cent of the global workforce, are exposed to extreme heat, with elevated risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease, kidney dysfunction, and physical injury (International Labour Organization 2024). 
  • Canada’s manufacturing sector alone could see annual losses in between $1 billion and $2 billion by 2050, due to the productivity impacts of heat waves on Canada’s workforce (Clark et al. 2021).  

Governments can act to protect communities and slow further warming

  • Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.
  • Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased fire risks today.
  • Ways for governments and other entities to prepare and protect people from extreme heat include: 
    • Making buildings safer by encouraging the installation of indoor cooling devices (like heat pumps or air conditioning). 
    • Planting green roofs and trees for shade in urban areas—such measures, if implemented in the B.C. Lower Mainland, could reduce heat-related deaths by 12 per cent in the 2030s and cut heat-related hospitalizations by 7 per cent, compared to status quo policies (Beugin et al. 2023). 
    • Giving employers and the public up-to-date information on how to keep safe during extreme heat waves.
    • Sending heat warnings out early enough to let people and responders prepare.
    • Designing infrastructure such as roads, railways, and electricity systems to withstand extreme heat and rainfall—this can reduce damage costs by 80 per cent by the end of the century, or up to $3.1 billion each year (Ness et al. 2021).

Proper preparation for heat waves improves health outcomes and makes financial sense 

  • Proactive adaptation interventions like urban greening and mechanical cooling can reduce the annual cost of heat-related hospitalization by up to 30 per cent in B.C.’s Lower Mainland by mid-century (Beugin et al. 2023).

Resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Cost of Climate Change series. Ryan est également disponible pour des entretiens en français.  (Eastern Time, English and French).
  • Sarah Miller is Research Lead in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Pacific Time, English). 

For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé
Communications and Media Relations Specialist
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525 

References

BC Coroners Service. 2022. Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. June 7. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/birth-adoption-death-marriage-and-divorce/deaths/coroners-service/death-review-panel/extreme_heat_death_review_panel_report.pdf  

Beugin, Dale, Dylan Clark, Sarah Miller, Ryan Ness, Ricardo Pelai, and Janna Wale. 2023. The case for adapting to extreme heat: Costs of the 2021 B.C. heat wave. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/extreme-heat-in-canada/ 

Borenstein, Seth. 2024. “Study says since 1979 climate change has made heat waves last longer, spike hotter, hurt more people.” Associated Press, March 29. https://apnews.com/article/heat-wave-climate-change-worsen-hotter-797aae046df8165f5f8be7d3f40a8b74   

Boudreault, Jérémie, Éric Lavigne, Céline Campagna, and Fateh Chebana. 2024. “Estimating the heat-related mortality and morbidity burden in the province of Quebec, Canada.” Environmental Research, September 14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2024.119347 

Bratu, Andreea, Kiffer G. Card, Kalysha Closson, Niloufar Aran, Carly Marshall, Susan Clayton, Maya K. Gislason, Hasina Samji, Gina Martin, Melissa Lem, Carmen H. Logie, Tim K. Takaro, and Robert S. Hogg. 2022. “The 2021 Western North American heat dome increased climate change anxiety among British Columbians: Results from a natural experiment.” The Journal of Climate Change and Health, May. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278222000050 

Clark, Dylan, Ryan Ness, Dena Coffman, and Dale Beugin. 2021. The Health Costs of Climate Change: How Canada Can Adapt, Prepare, and Save Lives. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/the-health-costs-of-climate-change/ 

Clarke, Ben, and Friederike Otto. 2024. “Reporting extreme weather and climate change: A guide of journalists.” World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/reporting-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-a-guide-for-journalists/ 

Climate Atlas of Canada. 2024. “Heath impacts of extreme heat.” https://climateatlas.ca/health-impacts-extreme-heat 

ClimateData.ca. 2024. “Heat waves and climate change.” https://climatedata.ca/resource/heat-waves-and-climate-change/ 

Government of Canada. 2019. “Canada’s climate is warming twice as fast as global average.” Press release. April 2.  https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2019/04/canadas-climate-is-warming-twice-as-fast-as-global-average.html 

Government of Canada. 2024. “Extreme heat events: Overview.” May 7. https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/climate-change-health/extreme-heat.html 

Henderson, Sarah B., Kathleen E. McLean, Michael J. Lee, and Tom Kosatsky. 2021. “Extreme heat events are public health emergencies.” BC Medical Journal, November. 

International Labour Organization. 2024. Ensuring safety and health at work in a changing climate. April 22. https://www.ilo.org/publications/ensuring-safety-and-health-work-changing-climate 

Kirchmeier-Young, Megan, N. P. Gillett, F. W. Zwiers, A. J. Cannon, and F. S. Anslow. 2019. “Attribution of the influence of human-induced climate change on an extreme fire season.” Earth’s Future, January. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001050 

McBean, Gordon. 2024. “2023 was the hottest year in history — and Canada is warming faster than anywhere else on earth.” The Conversation, January 11. https://theconversation.com/2023-was-the-hottest-year-in-history-and-canada-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-else-on-earth-220997 

Natural Resources Canada. 2024a. “Canada’s record-breaking wildfires in 2023: A fiery wake-up call.” May 21. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/simply-science/canadas-record-breaking-wildfires-2023-fiery-wake-call/25303 

Ness, Ryan, Dylan G. Clark, Julien Bourque, Dena Coffman, and Dale Beugin. 2021. Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/under-water/ 

Parisien, Marc-André, Quinn E. Barber, Mathieu L. Bourbonnais, Lori D. Daniels, Mike D. Flannigan, Robert W. Gray, Kira M. Hoffman, Piyush Jain, Scott L. Stephens, Steve W. Taylor, and Ellen Whitman. 2023. “Abrupt, climate-induced increase in wildfires in British Columbia since the mid-2000s.” Communications Earth & Environment, September 5. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00977-1 

Pérez-Invernón, F.J., F.J. Gordillo-Vázquez, H.  Huntrieser,  et al. “Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change.” Nature Communications  14, 739 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5

Philip, Sjoukje Y., Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, et al. 2022. “Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021.” Earth System Dynamics, December 8. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1689/2022/  

PreparedBC. 2024. “Extreme heat preparedness guide.” Government of British Columbia. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/public-safety-and-emergency-services/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/embc/preparedbc/preparedbc-guides/preparedbc_extreme_heat_guide.pdf 

Rantanen, Mika, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Antti Lipponen, et al. 2022. “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979.” Commun Earth Environ 3, 168. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 

Shingler, Benjamin. 2024. “Canada draws link between June heat wave and climate change with new attribution analysis.” CBC, July 9. https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/canada-eccc-rapid-attribution-heat-1.7257456 

Sonia I. Seneviratne, Xuebin Zhang, et al. 2021. “Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate.” In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. pp. 1513–1766, doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.013.

Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., N. Scovronick, F. Sera, et al. 2021. “The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.” Nature Climate Change, May 31. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x 

White, Rachel H., Sam Anderson, et al. 2023. “The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021.” Nature Communications, February 9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36289-3 

World Meterological Organization. 2023. “Climate change and heatwaves.” September 21. https://wmo.int/content/climate-change-and-heatwaves 

World Meteorological Organization. 2024. “Record temperature streak continues in June.” July 8. https://wmo.int/media/news/record-temperature-streak-continues-june  World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/