Canada should prioritize low-carbon projects in “nation building” efforts

Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the federal government’s announcement of projects in the national interest.

“Amid rising costs and volatile trade dynamics, an accelerating global energy transition, and increasingly costly and disruptive climate-related disasters, it matters how Canada defines ‘nation-building projects’ and which types of development it prioritizes.

“Accelerating the development of clean electricity, low-carbon energy, and critical minerals projects will strengthen Canada’s economic autonomy and competitiveness, fight climate change, and support Indigenous leadership and economic opportunities.

“We’re pleased to see some of these considerations reflected in the government’s initial major projects list, and we hope to see more clean energy projects prioritized moving forward. The prospect of fast-tracking oil and gas projects, including LNG, without mitigating emissions impacts through electrification or other means represents a risk to Canada’s emissions goals. Ultimately, the most effective way to enhance Canada’s low-carbon competitiveness is swiftly implementing strong, coherent policy to accelerate clean growth across the country, help Canadian companies reduce emissions, and make our communities and infrastructure more resilient to climate-induced disasters.

“We look forward to the forthcoming climate competitiveness strategy and urge all governments to take swift action to accomplish these goals. In the coming months, the Institute will undertake further analysis on how major projects and infrastructure can complement Canadian policy to achieve net zero.”

RESOURCES

Media statement | As Parliament returns, protecting Canadians and our economy from climate change must be a top priority

Op-ed | Connecting regional electricity grids should be Canada’s top nation-building project

As Parliament returns, protecting Canadians and our economy from climate change must be a top priority

OTTAWA—Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, and Peter Nicholson Sr., Chair of the Board of the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement ahead of the return of Parliament next week: 

“As Parliament resumes this fall, the federal government must act urgently to address the ways climate change is threatening Canadians’ health, security, economic competitiveness, and ways of life. 

“This summer, we were reminded once again how climate change threatens the safety and security of communities across the country by contributing increasingly to drought, fire, extreme heat, and degraded air quality. Both the return of Parliament and the forthcoming release of the government’s climate competitiveness strategy offer opportunities to move forward with pragmatic action that keeps people safe, drives emissions down, and supports economic competitiveness when it is needed most.

Climate change is a threat to health and safety across Canada

“The second-worst wildfire season on record has consumed millions of hectares of forest and land, forced the evacuation of numerous communities, shattered heat records, and blanketed the country’s largest cities in smoke— impacting air quality for millions of people across Canada, the United States, and even parts of Europe. Communities not typically known for wildfire activity, including in Atlantic Canada, now face record drought conditions and increasing fire risks. 

“The cause of these escalating dangers is clear: climate change is putting people’s lives and livelihoods at risk in every region across Canada. In fact, these threats are ongoing: much of the country continues to face dangerous wildfires and smoke advisories. That means continued disruptions to communities and industries, impacts on agriculture, and foregone tourism revenue in a year Canadians have been encouraged to travel domestically. 

Six policy priorities to protect Canada’s economic security and competitiveness

“As governments work to support Canadian businesses in navigating new economic constraints and unpredictable trade dynamics, parliamentarians also need to be clear-eyed about the additional pressures climate change is placing on the country’s economic security—pressures that will only worsen if they don’t receive the right policy attention now.  

“In addition to upending global trade, the Trump administration has taken steps to make the U.S. economy less competitive by backing away from affordable clean technologies at exactly the time other major economies are doubling down on decarbonization. We urge the federal government to define and implement a robust climate competitiveness strategy, while moving swiftly on six policy priorities:

Swift and decisive action is necessary

“Canadians need all orders of government to act swiftly and decisively in the face of these threats. Climate change is already affecting millions of Canadians and is a defining challenge for Canada’s economy. 

“When Parliament reconvenes next week, we urge the federal government to meet the moment with policies that bolster low-carbon competitiveness, reduce emissions to meet our declared targets, and accelerate adaptation to future climate impacts. Canada’s ability to thrive in the global energy transition, keep communities safe, and ensure long-term prosperity depends on the actions our elected leaders take right now.” 

RESOURCES

MEDIA CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
(226) 212-9883
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca

The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. We produce rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research, and have experts available to comment on topics including: low-carbon competitiveness, the costs of climate-related disasters in Canada, and Canada’s progress in reducing emissions. 

Canada’s review of the electric vehicle mandate—and other climate policies—must be swift and grounded in evidence

TORONTO—Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement about the federal government’s pause of its Electric Vehicle Availability Standard and changes to the Clean Fuel Regulations:

“Today’s announcement is a missed opportunity for the federal government to reiterate the clear benefits of good climate policy, like the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, to reduce greenhouse gas pollution and protect Canada’s economic competitiveness. While the news of a forthcoming carbon competitiveness strategy is encouraging, today’s announcement introduces new uncertainty for auto manufacturers and investors, and undermines smart, low-cost climate policy in a critical sector.”

“More than four months after its election, and in the wake of a destructive summer of climate change-driven drought, wildfires, and smoke smoke affecting millions of Canadians, the federal government has provided limited information about its intentions on climate policy. We look forward to the release of the carbon competitiveness strategy and to participating in this policy review, which must be evidence-based. 

“The evidence shows very clearly that the federal EV standard will help Canadians find better, more affordable automobile options, while also creating flexibility for vehicle manufacturers. The EV standard can ensure Canada keeps pace with an automobile market that is rapidly shifting towards electrification and emissions reduction. 

“With respect to the Clean Fuel Regulations, we welcome the inclusion of measures that will benefit Canadian biofuel producers, as well as canola farmers dealing with trade sanctions, but reiterate the critical importance of ensuring this standard continues to measurably reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the country.

“Together, these two policies are among the only tools the federal government has to reduce emissions from the transportation sector, which is the second highest-emitting sector in the country at 23 per cent of total national emissions. Without quick and sustained policy action to address national emissions, Canada is at risk of falling further off track of its climate and clean economy goals and losing further momentum on achieving its climate goals. 

“As Canadians across the country continue to grapple with the devastating impacts of the second worst wildfire season on record, our governments need to step up to protect the safety of Canadians and build a more competitive economy that is purpose-built for the global energy transition that continues to charge ahead.”

RESOURCES

MEDIA CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
(226) 212-9883
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca

The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. We produce rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research, and have experts available to comment on topics including: carbon pricing, the costs of climate-related disasters in Canada, and Canada’s progress in reducing emissions, and policy priorities for the incoming federal government. 

FACT SHEET: Climate change and drought

Download fact sheet

Climate change will increase the risk and severity of droughts in parts of Canada that already struggle with water shortages, like the southern Prairies and the interior of British Columbia (Bonsal et al. 2019). A drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that lasts long enough to cause serious water shortages for natural ecosystems, agriculture, and people.

Climate change is making droughts more frequent and more severe

  • Climate change has made droughts more frequent and severe around the world, and the trend is expected to continue to worsen (IPCC 2023, p. 67; Chiang et al. 2023). 
  • Climate change exacerbates drought, both because it shifts rainfall patterns and because it increases temperatures, leaving ecosystems increasingly vulnerable to dry conditions. Rising temperatures strain water supplies by increasing both evaporation rates and water consumption by plants (Walker and Van Loon 2023), resulting in drier soil conditions and water scarcity (Overpeck and Udall 2020).
  • Rising global temperatures alter precipitation patterns (United Nations n.d.; Zhang et al. 2019), reduce snowpack levels, and threaten glacial run-off as glaciers recede.
  • Climate change is also causing droughts to develop faster, making “flash droughts” more common (Yuan et al. 2023). This new reality makes forecasting and monitoring droughts more difficult.
  • Over the 21st century, the total land area subject to drought is expected to increase, with over 40 per cent of global land area expected to experience year-round drying by the end of the century, even under low-emissions scenarios (IPCC 2023, p. 1119; Cook et al. 2020).

Climate change worsens conditions in drought-prone regions

  • The southern Prairies and the interior of British Columbia are especially susceptible to drought and have seen several prolonged droughts in the past century. 
  • Climate change is likely to substantially increase the frequency, severity, and duration of summer droughts in interior B.C. and the southern Prairies by end-of-century (Bonsal et al. 2019). 
  • In the Western provinces, declining mountain snowpack and shrinking glaciers will further reduce summer river flows, compounding drought risk.
  • Much of Southern Canada may experience more frequent severe-to-extreme drought conditions by the late century, including in B.C., the Prairies, and Ontario (Dai, 2012; Zhao and Dai, 2015).

Droughts are costly disasters

  • Droughts were an important factor in the recent dramatic increase in crop insurance payments in Canada, which surged from $890 million in 2018 to $4.9 billion in 2022 (Arnason 2024). 
  • Drought insurance payouts to Alberta’s farmers and agri-businesses reached a record $326.5 million in 2023, more than tripling the payouts from the 2021 drought, according to the Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (Smith 2024).
  • Due to severe drought, crop production in Saskatchewan fell by a record 47 per cent in 2021. That year, Saskatchewan was the only province to see its economy contract (-0.3 per cent). Statistics Canada reported that while “activity was up in most sectors of the economy, those gains were entirely negated by the worst drought in nearly two decades” (Statistics Canada 2022).
  • In the Abitibi region of Québec, hay producers received a record $6.8 million in compensation for the 2023 drought, more than triple the annual average (Cameron 2024).
  • Droughts limit hydroelectricity generation, cutting revenue for utilities, increasing reliance on fossil-fuel generation (Statistics Canada 2024), and making electricity more expensive for consumers (CBC News 2023).
  • In January 2024, drought conditions in both B.C. and Manitoba meant lower reservoir levels at hydroelectric facilities, forcing the two provinces to import power from other jurisdictions (Canadian Press 2024).
  • Water shortage in its reservoirs forced Hydro-Québec to halve its electricity exports in 2023 and 2024, resulting in a $866 million drop in revenue for the utility in 2024 alone (Hydro-Québec 2024). Similarly, a drought in Manitoba in 2021 limited power production, resulting in a $248-million loss for Manitoba Hydro (Manitoba Hydro 2022).

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

Droughts threaten the health of Canadians

  • Droughts can degrade drinking water quality and increase the risk of water-borne diseases, as sluggish flows and more evaporation concentrate contaminants in water bodies and promote toxic algal blooms (Yusa et al. 2015).
  • Droughts can contribute to respiratory issues (Yusa et al. 2015) due to windblown dust from dried-out soils, exacerbating conditions such as asthma. 
  • Droughts can increase the likelihood of infection among recreational water users at times when warm weather drives engagement in water activities (Yusa et al. 2015).
  • Drought is associated with mental health issues, such as anxiety, depression, and increased risk of suicide, especially for farmers, who can experience financial and emotional stress during droughts (Ellis and Albrecht 2017).

Droughts worsen the risk of floods, wildfires and ecosystem damage

  • Droughts fuel wildfires by drying out vegetation and soils, creating highly flammable conditions. Prolonged water stress weakens trees and plants, causing them to shed leaves and needles, lose moisture, and eventually die, adding to the amount of available fuel. At the same time, hot, dry conditions lower humidity and increase the likelihood that sparks from lightning, equipment, or human activity will ignite a fire. Once fires start, low moisture allows them to spread quickly and burn more intensely, increasing the risk to communities, ecosystems, and critical infrastructure. 
  • Attribution studies show that the increase in drought-like hot and dry weather behind the exceptional wildfires in Eastern Canada in 2023 was made more than twice as likely by climate change.
  • July was exceptionally hot and dry in Jasper National Park, with drought conditions exacerbating fire risk and making forests more prone to ignite ahead of the 2024 wildfire that destroyed much of the Jasper townsite.
  • Drought can increase the risk of flooding. Dry conditions hurt soil quality and kill off vegetation, making soil less able to absorb water. If heavy rainfall follows a drought, water can run off more easily, which increases the risk of flooding (Bonsal et al. 2019).  
  • Droughts in northwest British Columbia, particularly during July and August when salmon are migrating to their upstream spawning areas, can cause severe and lasting damage to their populations, to ecosystems, and to the Indigenous Peoples that rely on them (Curran and Marsden 2021).

Governments can do a lot to protect Canadians from the worsening risk of droughts

Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.

Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for the increased risk of drought today. Specific measures governments can take include:

  • Plan proactively: All orders of governments can prepare for shortages by developing and implementing proactive drought response plans, such as Alberta’s comprehensive Drought Response Plan. These plans include clear strategies for managing water resources, coordinating across sectors, and protecting vulnerable communities (Government of Alberta 2024).
  • Conserve water: Water conservation can reduce the adverse impacts of droughts when supplies are low. This can include voluntary or mandatory restrictions on water use during dry periods. Governments may need to implement stronger policies to prevent waste, such as universal water metering. 
  • Protect water quality:  Increased water quality monitoring during droughts helps safeguard drinking water and protect recreational water users from adverse health effects, such as parasites and toxins (Yusa et al. 2015).
  • Strengthen agricultural resilience: Governments can increase drought resilience by improving early warning systems, such as the Canadian Drought Monitor (Agriculture and Agri Food Canada 2024), supporting investment in irrigation and water storage, and incentivizing the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties. 
  • Support farming communities: Strong crop insurance, disaster relief programs, and mental health supports are vital for farming families and agricultural communities coping with financial and emotional stress during droughts (Bonsal et al. 2011; Hart et al. 2011). 
  • Invest in structural measures for hydroelectricity: The hydroelectricity sector could adapt to drought by continuing to invest in water management infrastructure, such as reservoirs, to ensure that energy production can continue during low water levels (BC Hydro 2024).

Resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883  (Eastern Time, French & English)

Krystal Northey 
Lead, Public Affairs 
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883 (Mountain Time, English)

References 

Agriculture and Agri Food Canada. 2024. Canadian Drought Monitor. https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor 

Arnason, Robert. 2024. “Crop Insurance Costs Explode.” The Western Producer, February 29. https://www.producer.com/news/crop-insurance-costs-explode/  

BC Hydro. 2024. “How we manage drought conditions.” https://www.bchydro.com/energy-in-bc/operations/transmission-reservoir-data/drought-management.html 

Bonsal, B.R., D.L. Peters, et al. 2019. “Changes in freshwater availability across Canada; Chapter 6 in Canada’s Changing Climate Report.” Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/6-0/ 

Bonsal, Barrie, Rajesh R. Shrestha, Yonas Dibike, et al. “Western Canadian Freshwater Availability: Current and Future Vulnerabilities.” Environmental Reviews 28, no. 4 (2020): 528–45. https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2020-0040

Cameron, Daphné. 2024. “Compensations pour Pertes Agricoles: Un Milliard pour les Agriculteurs après une Année Désastreuse.” La Presse, March 21. https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2024-03-21/compensations-pour-pertes-agricoles/un-milliard-pour-les-agriculteurs-apres-une-annee-desastreuse.php.  

Canadian Press. 2024. “Drought in Western Canada Impacting Hydropower Production as Reservoirs Run Low.” Business in Vancouver, January 29. https://www.biv.com/news/resources-agriculture/drought-western-canada-impacting-hydropower-production-reservoirs-run-low-8295183  

CBC News. 2023. “Drought is causing B.C. utilities to import more power — and that will affect your bills in 2024.” December 21. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-electric-rate-changes-as-province-imports-power-1.7065802

Chiang, Felicia, Omid Mazdiyasni, and Amir AghaKouchak. 2021. “Evidence of Anthropogenic Impacts on Global Drought Frequency, Duration, and Intensity.” Nature Communications 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w

Cook, Benjamin I., Justin S. Mankin, Kate Marvel, A. Park Williams, Jason E. Smerdon, and Kevin J. Anchukaitis. 2020.  “Twenty-First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios”. Earth Future 8 (6).  https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001461 

Curran, Deborah, and Tara Marsden. 2021. Ayookxw responding to climate change. Canadian Climate Institute. June 21. https://climateinstitute.ca/publications/ayookxw-responding-to-climate-change/ 

Dai, A. 2012. “Increasing Drought under Global Warming in Observations and Models”. Nature Climate Change 3, 52–58.

Ellis, Neville R., Albrecht, Glenn A. 2017. “Climate change threats to family farmers’ sense of place and mental well-being: A case study from the Western Australian Wheatbelt”. Social Science and Medicine 175, 161-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.01.009 

Government of Alberta. 2024. Alberta Drought Response Plan. Environment and Protected Areas. August 14. https://www.alberta.ca/system/files/epa-alberta-drought-response-plan.pdf 

Hart, Craig Richard, Helen Louise Berry, and Anne Maree Tonna. 2011. “Improving the mental health of rural New South Wales communities facing drought and other adversities”. The Australian Journal of Rural Health 19 (5). https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1440-1584.2011.01225.x

Hydro-Québec. 2024. Une transition ambitieuse: Rapport Annuel 2024. https://www.hydroquebec.com/a-propos/publications-rapports/rapport-annuel.html 

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2023. Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Manitoba Hydro. 2022. “Manitoba Hydro posts $248 million consolidated net loss due to drought: 2021-22 annual report.”  September 29. https://www.hydro.mb.ca/articles/2022/09/manitoba_hydro_posts_248_million_consolidated_net_loss_due_to_drought_2021_22_annual_report/

Natural Resources Canada. 2024. “Drought.” Natural Resources Canada, April 12. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/drought/17772.

Overpeck, Jonathan T., and Bradley Udall. 2020. “Climate Change and the Aridification of North America.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117(22): 11856–11858. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006323117   

Smith, Madeline. 2024. “Farmers, Ranchers Worry About Coming Season Amid Drought, High Pasture Insurance Payouts.” CBC, February 26. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-farmer-rancher-drought-insurance-1.7124671.  

Statistics Canada. 2022. “Drought drags down Saskatchewan Economy in 2021”. Statistics Canada. September 23. https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/1852-drought-drags-down-saskatchewan-economy-2021  

Statistics Canada. 2024. An energy snapshot: First quarter of 2024 review. https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/6447-energy-snapshot-first-quarter-2024-review

Tam, Benita Y.; Szeto, Kit; Bonsal, Barrie; Flato, Greg; Cannon, Alex J.;  & Rong, Robin. 2019. “CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index”. Canadian Water Resources Journal / Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques, 44 (1), 90-107. https://doi.org/10.1080/07011784.2018.1537812

United Nations. n.d. “Water – At the Center of the Climate Crisis.” United Nations. https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/water

Walker, David, and Anne F. Van Loon. 2023. “Droughts Are Coming on Faster.” Science 380(6641): 130–132. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adh3097 

World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/   

Yuan, Xing, Yumiao Wang, Peng Ji, Peili Wu, Justin Sheffield, and Jason A. Otkin. 2023. “A Global Transition to Flash Droughts under Climate Change.” Science, 380(6641), 187–191. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn6301 

Yusa, Anna, Peter Berry, June J. Cheng, Nicholas Ogden, Barrie Bonsal, Ronald Stewart, and Ruth Waldick. 2015. “Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12(7): 8359–8412. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120708359  

Zhang, Xuebin, Greg Flato, Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Lucie Vincent, Hui Wan, Xiaolan L. Wang, Robin Rong, John Fyfe, Guilong Li, and Viatchelsav V. Kharin. 2019. “Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada.” In Canada’s Changing Climate Report, edited by E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen, 112–193. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/4-3/summary/

Zhao, T. and Dai, A. 2015. “The magnitude and causes of global drought changes in the twenty-first century under a low-moderate emissions scenario”. Journal of Climate 28, 4490–4512.

New research spotlights Indigenous perspectives on energy and climate issues across Canada

June 16, 2025 | TORONTO—New research released today highlights Indigenous perspectives on building a cleaner economy and addressing climate change policies in communities across the country.

The research includes five original case studies from Indigenous scholars and authors, presented by the Canadian Climate Institute and the Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources (CIER) as part of the Indigenous Perspectives program. Now in its fifth year, the annual program profiles Indigenous expertise and solutions in responding to climate change and clean energy issues.

This year’s case studies focus on:

  • Why Indigenous-inclusive electricity transmission projects are essential to unlocking Canada’s renewable energy potential (authors Frank Busch, Joel Krupa, and Kevin Hanna)
  • How First Nations are uniquely positioned to achieve energy sovereignty while solving energy security for all New Brunswickers (authors Kevin Woods, Tracy Primeau, and Claire Harris)
  • Why Anishnabe governance is essential to restoring healthy moose populations and a healthy climate (authors Shannon Chief and Jaimie Vincent)
  • How Indigenous economic ecosystems are essential for climate adaptation and fisheries management (authors Tasha Brooks and Leighton Gall)
  • How the Friends of The Attawapiskat River are working to ensure Indigenous communities, lands, water, and culture are protected in the Ring of Fire region (authors Michel Koostachin, Rick Cheechoo, and Kerrie Blaise)

Case study authors will discuss their work in two online roundtables happening on June 18 and 19. The first gathering will focus on how Indigenous governance and worldviews are essential to climate policies. The second will highlight the potential of expanded Indigenous participation in the development, delivery, and security of clean electricity.

Register now to attend the 2025 Indigenous Perspectives roundtables on June 18 and 19, or read this year’s case studies online.

ABOUT THE INDIGENOUS PERSPECTIVES PROGRAM

Since 2020, the Canadian Climate Institute and Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources have collaboratively led the Indigenous Perspectives program to centre Indigenous-led research in climate policy and amplify Indigenous perspectives on solutions, barriers, and lessons learned about addressing climate change and participating in the global energy transition. The program aims to advance and support the Truth and Reconciliation Calls to Action and the implementation of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People.

The case studies explore a wide range of issues, recognizing the diversity of Indigenous perspectives in Canada. Featured case studies are selected through a competitive application process, and developed and presented through research funding and mentorship support from the presenting organizations. Program participants retain full ownership of their research, conclusions, and materials published, and the views and policy recommendations presented reflect the research and conclusions of the individual case study authors.  

QUOTES

“Indigenous perspectives and research are a critical part of effective climate action and economic decision-making that affects all Canadians. We’re thrilled to be celebrating five years of working with the Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources to amplify Indigenous knowledge, research, and leadership on critical climate-related issues.”

— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“These new Indigenous Perspectives case studies have important implications for people, ecosystems, and policy across Canada—from energy security in New Brunswick to adaptive strategies for community-centered commercial fisheries in British Columbia. Anyone who is focused on climate mitigation, adaptation, and the transition to a clean economy can benefit from learning from the authors who have led this research.”

— Maria Shallard, Director, Indigenous Research, Canadian Climate Institute

“The voices for Indigenous-led climate policy recommendations need to be heard. Much like the drum carries medicines to all that hear its song, the Indigenous Perspectives case studies carry messages of hope for a more sustainable future that respects culture, language, knowledge, and the spirit of collaboration.”

— Shianne McKay, Senior Project Manager, CIER

RESOURCES

CONTACT

To arrange an interview with the Institute or CIER about the Indigenous Perspectives program, or to speak with the authors of this year’s case studies, please contact:

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Pacific Time)
Public Affairs Lead
Canadian Climate Institute
(250)-818-3748

About the Canadian Climate Institute

The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada’s net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.
climateinstitute.ca

About the Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources

Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources (CIER) is a national Indigenous-led charitable organization that embraces diversity and collaboration for capacity building with Indigenous Nations to strengthen and support sustainable communities and a healthy environment.
yourcier.org

Canada risks missing out on billions in critical mineral investment without swift policy changes: report

OTTAWA—New research from the Canadian Climate Institute finds governments should act swiftly to de-risk critical minerals investment and accelerate project timelines—without cutting corners on Indigenous rights and environmental protections—to avoid missing out on a multi-billion dollar economic opportunity.  

Six priority critical minerals—copper, nickel, lithium, graphite, cobalt, and rare earth elements—form the building blocks of clean technologies like renewable energy and electric vehicles, among others. Canada’s current production levels have barely scratched the surface of existing reserves, and demand is growing for these minerals that are essential to enhancing Canada’s energy security and enabling the global transition to clean technologies. 

A report published today by the Canadian Climate Institute, Critical Path: Securing Canada’s place in the global critical minerals race, finds that investment in these six priority critical minerals in Canada would have to grow substantially to keep pace with domestic and global demand. In fact, by 2040, Canada risks losing out on $12 billion a year in critical minerals production unless mining ramps up to meet demand from domestic industry alone. 

Amid increased competition for critical minerals, geopolitical turmoil, and rapidly evolving trade relationships, new investment of $30 billion would have to flow into Canada over the next 15 years to fully meet domestic critical minerals potential. To meet the growth in global demand—which is expected to double by 2040—investment in Canadian critical minerals would have to increase to $65 billion in that time frame. 

Yet investment into critical mineral projects hinges on expectations about future market prices—some of which are extremely volatile and can be overly affected by the actions of a few powerful players. To give investors more certainty, governments should act swiftly to share risks through targeted policies and programs, such as equity investments, offtake agreements, or contracts for difference.  

The report underscores that successful critical mineral projects require strong partnerships with Indigenous nations and communities, ongoing respect and recognition of Indigenous rights and self-determination, and robust environmental protections. It recommends governments streamline and accelerate project review processes by reducing inefficiencies, but warns that cutting corners when it comes to Indigenous rights and protecting the environment has been proven to backfire and lead to further delays.

Specifically, the report recommends the federal, provincial, and territorial governments de-risk critical mineral mining projects by:

  • Developing agreements between government and private companies to share the financial risk of investment in critical mineral projects.
  • Providing more funding for Indigenous communities to participate and partner on mining projects and enhance access to capital for ownership opportunities.
  • Strengthening mining regulations to reduce environmental risks and liabilities for communities that build on existing voluntary standards. 
  • Improving the efficiency of project reviews and decision making processes across multiple jurisdictions, without cutting back environmental safeguards or Indigenous consultation. 

The Climate Institute also commissioned three companion papers exploring related topics, including: Indigenous participation in the critical minerals sector, the emissions impact of ramping up critical minerals mining in Canada, and measures to reduce the environmental risks of increased mining activities. 

QUOTES

“Critical minerals represent a multi-billion dollar opportunity for Canada in a global energy transition that continues to pick up pace. But Canada’s critical minerals sector is struggling to attract enough investment to keep up with demand. As competition heats up and trade relationships evolve, Canadian governments should make haste to adopt policies to unlock private investment and bring resources to market faster—all while forming respectful partnerships with Indigenous communities and reducing environmental risks.” 

— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute 

“Securing Canada’s place in the global critical minerals race requires swift action to unlock public and private investment that can power Canada’s energy transition with the building blocks of clean technologies. Our Critical Path report offers a clear blueprint for the steps governments can take to seize this opportunity.”

— Marisa Beck, Director, Clean Growth, Canadian Climate Institute

“All clean growth projects will be built on treaty lands, land claim areas, traditional territories, or within close proximity to an Indigenous community. This unique moment in time can affirm Indigenous rights to land and self-determination and encourage meaningful partnership between Indigenous nations, industry, and government. The Canadian Climate Institute’s report provides a clear path on how Canada can grow its critical minerals sector in full partnership with Indigenous Peoples.”

—JP Gladu, Founder and Principal, Mokwateh

“Canada has an opportunity to lead the transition to cleaner energy sources, but seizing that opportunity requires accelerating the development of a secure and circular domestic value chain for Canada’s battery industry, from mine to market to recovery. Investing in Canadian critical minerals mining and processing will create jobs, grow the economy, and ensure Canada secures its place as a global leader in the battery value chain.”

— Sean de Vries, Executive Director, Battery Metals Association of Canada

“Canada has a significant opportunity at hand to develop our critical mineral reserves, which among other imperatives are critical for a lower-emissions economy. This report clearly demonstrates the importance of making it easier for mining projects to secure financing to make this happen. By deploying loan guarantees and other financial risk-sharing instruments to de-risk projects, federal and provincial governments in Canada can crowd-in private capital, and keep projects on track despite market uncertainty.”

— John Stackhouse, Senior Vice President, Office of the CEO, Royal Bank of Canada

RESOURCES

CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Pacific Time)
Public Affairs Lead
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

About the Canadian Climate Institute 

The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada’s net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.
climateinstitute.ca

Climate action is critical to building a strong, secure economy

OTTAWA—Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, issued the following statement in response to today’s Speech from the Throne, delivered by His Majesty King Charles III on behalf of the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney: 

“Today’s Speech from the Throne underscored the Carney government’s commitments to prioritize measures that build Canada’s economy, diversify trading relationships, and fight climate change. The Canadian Climate Institute applauds the government’s focus on expediting nation-building projects and infrastructure, working to make Canada a clean energy superpower and a world-leading hub for science and innovation, and ensuring new homes are both affordable and resilient. 

“Any robust economic strategy must include effective action to fight climate change, make life more affordable, and invest in low-carbon innovation. To deliver on the economy-building commitments outlined in the Throne Speech, we urge the federal government to act decisively on five specific, critical priorities: strengthening industrial carbon pricing systems, finalizing methane regulations for the oil and gas sector, enacting Canada’s Clean Electricity Tax Credit, establishing a made-in-Canada climate taxonomy for Canada’s financial sector, and applying clear flood and fire resilience criteria for federally supported housing.

“Climate change is already making life in Canada less affordable. Climate-related damages increase the average household’s cost of living by more than $700 each year, in the form of higher grocery bills due to supply-chain disruptions, rising home insurance premiums, and tax hikes to pay for disaster recovery and infrastructure repairs. Building a strong and resilient Canadian economy requires limiting the costs of climate change by protecting homes and communities, while also moving swiftly on policy solutions that reduce emissions and spur innovation. 

“As His Majesty King Charles III stated in the Speech from the Throne, speed is of the essence. Acting swiftly on these policy priorities will strengthen Canada’s competitive advantage in an increasingly unpredictable global economy, while enhancing Canadian sovereignty, resilience and energy security.” 

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CONTACT

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
(226) 212-9883
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca

Freezing Alberta’s industrial carbon price will undermine investment and certainty for business

OTTAWA—Dale Beugin, Executive Vice President with the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement on the Government of Alberta’s decision to freeze industrial carbon pricing: 

“Today’s decision from the Government of Alberta is a step backwards. Freezing industrial carbon pricing will undermine investor certainty, hurt provincial competitiveness in the long run, and kneecap Alberta’s ability to reduce emissions. 

“Industrial carbon pricing works. According to research from the Canadian Climate Institute’s 440 Megatonnes project, these carbon pricing systems can do more to cut climate pollution between now and 2030 than any other policy. They create credit markets that can drive investment in low-carbon projects, such as carbon capture and storage and renewable electricity projects, while also creating incentives for big emitters to improve their emissions performance to avoid carbon costs. 

“But industrial carbon pricing systems are only effective when investors and markets have certainty. Alberta is home to billions of dollars of decarbonization projects that are banking on the existing system, and up to another $5 billion in carbon credits. A frozen price undermines the assumptions on which all these investments were made. That’s costly for existing projects and also undermines confidence and investment in future low-carbon projects. 

“Crucially, systems like Alberta’s are already designed to minimize costs and competitiveness impacts. Our research shows these costs, at most, amount to the price of just 30 cents per barrel of oil. These systems create incentives to reduce emissions by improving performance, not by reducing investment or production. 

“There are other, better options, for protecting competitiveness, like returning more revenue generated from the policy to industry. Freezing Alberta’s industrial carbon price is a mistake and the government should reconsider.”

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RESOURCES

MEDIA CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
(226) 212-9883
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca

The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. We produce rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research, and have experts available to comment on topics including: carbon pricing, the costs of climate-related disasters in Canada, and Canada’s progress in reducing emissions, and policy priorities for the incoming federal government. 

Canadian Climate Institute congratulates Prime Minister Mark Carney and his newly elected government

TORONTO—Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, issued the following statement on the results of the 2025 federal election: 

“The Canadian Climate Institute congratulates Mark Carney and the Liberal Party of Canada on their success in the federal election. The Institute looks forward to working with the Carney government on policy solutions that will enhance Canada’s sovereignty and energy security, while also reducing emissions, enabling low-carbon economic growth, and building more resilient homes and infrastructure. 

“Accelerating Canada’s progress on climate change is an economic imperative in this time of global economic upheaval and uncertainty. Canada has an opportunity to act on climate change in ways that grow our economy and support Canadian innovation, invest in our communities, capitalize on our competitive advantages, and expand our trade horizons. Faced with ongoing aggression from the U.S. and efforts to hobble U.S. clean energy innovation and climate research, implementing cost-effective, Canadian-made climate solutions are an important tool to support Canadian workers, protect communities, and strengthen our economy. 

“We urge the new federal government to act swiftly to strengthen industrial carbon pricing, implement methane regulations for the oil and gas sector, enact Canada’s Clean Electricity Tax Credit, and establish a made-in-Canada climate taxonomy for Canada’s financial sector. Decisive action on these priorities will accelerate low-carbon growth while enhancing Canada’s competitiveness and economic resilience. 

“Although the costs of climate-related damages are already driving up the cost of living for Canadians, our homes, communities and businesses are ill-equipped for a future of increasingly extreme weather. Smart action to address climate-related threats can help limit future damages, while keeping the cost of living down and supporting jobs and economic diversification. 

“The Institute’s research has found that climate change-related damages in 2025 could already be worth half a year of Canada’s economic growth. Meanwhile, despite the Trump Administration’s efforts to block investments in clean energy and innovation, the costs of low-carbon technologies continue to decline, and over 40 per cent of global electricity generation was produced by non-emitting sources last year. For Canada, acting now to limit damage from climate change and capitalize on the global energy transition represents a generational opportunity we can’t afford to pass up.” 

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The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. We produce rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research, and have experts available to comment on topics including: carbon pricing, the costs of climate-related disasters in Canada, and Canada’s progress in reducing emissions, and policy priorities for the incoming federal government. 

Media Contacts

To speak with an expert for an interview or background information, please contact our media relations team: 

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
(226) 212-9883
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca

FACT SHEET: Climate change and storms

Download Fact Sheet

Climate change is increasing the intensity of extreme weather across the globe—including storms. Warmer global temperatures provide more energy to fuel storms, making them more powerful and less predictable. As a result, storm-related hazards such as hail, damaging winds, and flash floods are becoming more frequent and severe in many parts of Canada. Ongoing scientific research continues to clarify the links between human-caused climate change and the intensification of storms (Smith & Malena-Chan 2024).

Projecting the future effects of climate change on storms in Canada is challenging due to their complex, localized nature. In Canada, changes to the factors that drive storms can differ significantly by region and the smaller scale and short duration of many convective storms make them difficult to model accurately with global climate models. While warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of convective storms in Canada, the exact timing, location, and severity remain uncertain. More research specific to Canada is needed to improve projections and better understand local variations (Smith & Malena-Chan 2024).

Climate change is making storms stronger and more frequent

  • Convective storms—including thunderstorms, hailstorms, tornados and hurricanes—occur when warm and moist air rises in the atmosphere. As the atmosphere warms with climate change, it can hold more moisture (NASA 2022).
  • Over land, warming surface temperatures make moist air rise more quickly, providing more fuel for severe thunderstorms (Smith & Malena-Chan 2024). Similarly, rising ocean temperatures due to global warming allow surface water to evaporate and rise more quickly, fuelling more powerful and intense hurricanes (Madge & Smith 2024). 
  • Favourable conditions for the development of severe convective storms are expected to increase by 5 to 20 per cent for each degree °C of global warming (Lepore et. al 2021).

Storms are racking up damages in parts of Canada

  • Storm hazards—such as strong winds, hail, and lightning—pose serious risks to infrastructure, agriculture, and communities and are a major driver of catastrophic losses in Canada (Ouranos, n.d.). 
  • Large hail is one of the most costly severe storm-related hazards in North America, with annual insured losses routinely exceeding $10 billion across the continent (Loomis 2018). 
  • In August 2024, a hailstorm in Calgary became the second costliest extreme weather event in Canadian history, with over $3.2 billion in insured losses (IBC 2025).
  • Straightline winds—winds that blow in a straight path, usually from thunderstorms or severe weather systems—are one type of extreme weather growing more frequent and destructive due to climate change (Prein 2023). Between 2008 and 2021, roughly two thirds of catastrophic insured losses in Ontario and Quebec were caused by windstorms (Hadavi et. al, 2022).
  • The 2022 Derecho—a powerful, fast-moving line of wind and thunderstorms—caused about $1 billion in insured losses across Ontario and Quebec (IBC 2023). 

Many regions of Canada will likely experience more frequent and severe storms  as climate change accelerates

  • Climate models project more severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in Canada, particularly in the Prairies and eastern regions (Kirchmeier-Young & Zhang 2020; Loxley 2022; Ouranos, n.d.). 
  • In southern Quebec, rising temperatures are expected to increase atmospheric instability, leading to more thunderstorms and more frequent short bursts of intense rainfall (Ouranos, n.d.). In central Alberta, climate modelling also projects increased storm intensity in the coming decades (Gan et. al, 2022).
  • In Atlantic Canada, climate change is  making hurricanes more frequent and more powerful (Madge & Smith 2024). 
  • On the Pacific coast, climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of atmospheric rivers that bring extreme rainfall, increasing the likelihood of events, like the one which brought severe flooding and landslides to B.C. in 2021, by 45 to 60 per cent (Gillett et. al 2022). 

Climate change is altering patterns of damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail

  • While atmospheric warming will likely alter the frequency, severity, and areas affected by tornadoes across Canada, more research is needed to fully understand the nature of the changes anticipated (Jafarpur & Smith 2024). 
  • Some evidence has suggested that Canadian tornados and severe wind hotspots are shifting eastwards—a worrying trend that would increase risks for densely populated parts of Ontario and Quebec (Zadorsky 2024).
  • Atmospheric warming from greenhouse gas emissions makes larger and more damaging hailstones more likely to develop (Gensisni et. al, 2024). In southern Alberta, hailstorms are expected to become more frequent and severe due to climate change (Zhao 2024).

Climate change is increasing the frequency, strength, and rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and hurricanes, particularly in the Atlantic

  • Most of the heat energy captured by greenhouse gas emissions is absorbed by the oceans, providing fuel for increasingly powerful tropical cyclones and hurricanes (Climate Central, 2024). Human-driven increases in sea surface temperature made 84 per cent of hurricanes from 2019-2023 more powerful than they would have otherwise been (Gilford et. al 2024). Every hurricane in 2024 had higher wind speeds because of climate change (Climate Central 2024).
  • Hurricanes are forming more frequently in the Atlantic Ocean due to human-caused warming (Emanuel 2021). The proportion of very intense tropical cyclones is projected to increase worldwide, and their destructive power is enhanced by rising sea levels and increased precipitation rates associated with anthropogenic climate change (Knutson et. al 2021).
  • Hurricanes in the Atlantic are intensifying more rapidly, leaving communities less time to prepare. It is now twice as likely for hurricanes in the Atlantic to develop from a category 1 to a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) within 24 hours compared to the 1970s and 80s (Garner, 2023).
  • Sea-level rise fuelled by climate change leads to more powerful storm surges,  increasing the extent of coastal flooding and damage from hurricanes (Madge & Smith 2024). 
  • Hurricanes pose growing economic and safety risks for communities in Atlantic Canada, with high winds, flooding, and storm surges destroying homes and coastal infrastructure. Hurricanes are projected to form and intensify at higher latitudes in a warming climate, increasing the probability that more dangerous storms will reach Canadian coasts (Studholme et. al 2022). 

Canada needs to adapt to changing and intensifying storm patterns

  • More research is needed to understand changing storm patterns and regional differences with more certainty. Forecasting and alert systems for extreme weather need to be improved to allow communities to better prepare and respond to dangerous events (Bongiorno 2024; MacDonald 2024).
  • Building codes must be enhanced to favour more resilient materials, designs and constructions in high risk areas, including wind and hail-resilient roofing.
  • Government supported grants, rebates, and retrofit programs can expedite more resilient construction and renovation (Porter 2023; Wawanesa 2021).
  • Land use regulations and infrastructure can be deployed to better protect coastal communities from storms and hurricanes. For example, communities can ensure buildings are located far enough from coastal areas prone to storm surge and erosion through minimum setback standards, or by using nature-based solutions to stabilize shorelines and increase coastal resilience (Richardson & Otero 2012; Halifax Regional Municipality 2024). 
  • Updating land use policies and incentives can help to direct new housing development away from areas prone to hail and tornadoes and other storm hazards (Strader et al. 2018). 

Resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact

Claudine Brulé
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525 (Eastern Time, French/English)

Krystal Northey 
Lead, Public Affairs 
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883 (Mountain Time, English)

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Garner, Andra J. 2023. “Observed Increases in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Peak Intensification Rates.” Scientific Reports 13(1): 16299. doi:10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y.

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Hadavi, Mohammad, Lutong Sun, and Djordje Romanic. 2022. “Normalized Insured Losses Caused by Windstorms in Quebec and Ontario, Canada, in the Period 2008–2021.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 80: 103222. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103222.

Hosansky, David. 2023. “Damaging Thunderstorm Winds Increasing in Central U.S.” University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. https://news.ucar.edu/132927/damaging-thunderstorm-winds-increasing-central-us.

Jafarpur, Pouriya, and Ryan Smith. 2024. “Tornadoes and Climate Change in Canada.” ClimateData.ca. https://climatedata.ca/tornadoes-and-climate-change-in-canada/.

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Knutson, Thomas R., Maya V. Chung, Gabriel Vecchi, Jingru Sun, Tsung-Lin Hsieh, and Adam J. P. Smith. 2021. Climate Change Is Probably Increasing the Intensity of Tropical Cyclones. Zenodo. doi:10.5281/ZENODO.4570334.

Lepore, Chiara, Ryan Abernathey, Naomi Henderson, John T. Allen, and Michael K. Tippett. 2021. “Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models.” Earth’s Future 9(12): e2021EF002277. doi:10.1029/2021EF002277.

Loomis, Ilima. 2018. “Hail Causes the Most Storm Damage Costs Across North America.” Eos 99. doi:10.1029/2018EO104487.

Loxley, Matthew. 2022. A Snapshot of the Changing Prairie Climate. Winnipeg: ClimateWest. https://climatewest.ca/publications/a-snapshot-of-the-changing-prairie-climate/ 

MacDonald, Michael. 2024. “Use of Alert System Delayed during Deadly Flash Flooding in Nova Scotia: Report.” CBC News. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/alert-system-delayed-deadly-flash-flooding-nova-scotia-1.7204197.

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Studholme, Joshua, Alexey V. Fedorov, Sergey K. Gulev, Kerry Emanuel, and Kevin Hodges. 2022. “Poleward Expansion of Tropical Cyclone Latitudes in Warming Climates.” Nature Geoscience 15(1): 14–28. doi:10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1.

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Zadorsky, Justin. 2024. “Weather Extremes and Adapting to an Increasingly Dangerous World.” Western News. https://news.westernu.ca/2024/04/our-warming-planet-weather-extremes/.Zhao, Emma. 2024. “Research Team Descends on Alberta to Track Frequency, Severity of Hailstorms.” CBC News. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-hail-storms-ontario-climatology-1.7267198.