Canada is now more than 20 years behind reaching its 2030 emissions target

OTTAWA—New analysis of Canada’s current emissions trajectory finds the country is not expected to hit its 2030 emissions target before 2050, let alone achieve net zero emissions by then. Under today’s policies—including the implementation agreement for the Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)—Canada would be more than 20 years behind schedule in achieving its international climate commitments, according to research by the Canadian Climate Institute’s 440 Megatonnes project.

Unless governments across the country implement stronger policies, the Institute’s analysis finds that national emissions in 2040 will be at least 202 million tonnes above levels aligned with a pathway to net zero emissions. The gap is roughly equivalent to leaving an extra 44 million gasoline-powered cars on the road by 2040—or nearly the total combined emissions of Ontario and British Columbia. If the country remains on its current course, by 2050 Canada’s emissions would be 460 megatonnes higher than the legislated target of net zero.

The analysis, done in partnership with Navius Research, shows that Canada’s projected emissions are higher now largely because governments across the country have rolled back several climate policy commitments. This includes weakened industrial carbon pricing, delayed methane regulations, changes to electric vehicle policy, and a cancelled oil and gas emissions cap, among others.

The remaining climate policy framework will struggle to offset the effects of more carbon-intensive development including expanded oil and gas production, new pipelines, and greater use of natural gas for electricity and heating.

Crucially, the analysis demonstrates that climate policies have been working to reduce emissions. Without the current suite of policy measures in place across the country, national emissions would be projected to be more than 90 megatonnes higher in 2030—roughly equivalent to total emissions from passenger road, rail, and air travel within Canada today.

The federal government has promised other measures that could reduce more emissions, including updates to carbon pricing standards, new regulations to achieve the equivalent of 75 per cent EV sales by 2035 and 90 per cent by 2040, and a strategy to expand power grids and electrify the economy. But the final details—and therefore the effectiveness—of those measures remain to be determined.

The new research comes on the heels of the 2026 Canada’s Changing Climate report, a landmark scientific assessment detailing how the country is currently on track for 5° Celsius of average warming unless stronger action is taken to reduce emissions and limit economic damages at home and abroad.

QUOTES

“The latest numbers show Canada’s goal of net zero emissions is nowhere in sight. At this rate, Canada would be lucky to hit its 2030 target in 2050—20 years behind schedule. That’s an outcome we frankly can’t afford. The latest science shows Canada must prepare for five degrees Celsius of warming and massive economic damages unless global efforts to reduce emissions prevail. If Canada is committed to achieving net zero by 2050 and strengthening trade and ties with other Middle Powers, all governments must strengthen policies to spur the shift to cleaner energy and technology. Our economic resilience depends on it.

— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“Canada is putting its climate commitments on the back burner at the same moment our international peers and trading partners are leaning harder into the clean energy transition and the economic opportunities it offers. This emissions gap is about much more than a missed climate target—it’s a flashing warning light about Canada’s international competitiveness in the decades ahead.”

— Dale Beugin, Executive Vice President, Canadian Climate Institute

“Governments across Canada, including the federal government, say they are committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Our analysis clearly shows that today’s policy choices cannot get us there. The window to bend Canada’s emissions towards net zero remains open, but it gets narrower by the day.”

— Ross Linden-Fraser, Acting Director, 440 Megatonnes

RESOURCES

CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
Lead, Public Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

About the Canadian Climate Institute

The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada’s net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.

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Canada must prepare for a 5°C hotter future and act now to avoid worst impacts: new federal report

TORONTO—Ryan Ness, Adaptation Research Director at the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the publication of Canada’s Changing Climate Report, a comprehensive scientific assessment of climate change in Canada by more than 100 academics and experts:

“Canadians must prepare for decades of more severe wildfire seasons, more extreme heat days, rising seas, thawing permafrost, and diminishing water resources due to glacier loss. That’s the grim takeaway from the latest edition of Canada’s Changing Climate Report, a comprehensive federal scientific assessment released today.

“The report shows Canada must brace—and actively prepare—for the inevitable impacts ahead, while accelerating efforts to prevent warming that isn’t yet locked in. The expert assessment finds Canada will be about 2.7° C warmer than pre-industrial levels over the next two decades, close to twice the global average, regardless of actions taken to reduce global emissions over that time.

“Warming is amplified in Canada because northern latitudes absorb and hold onto heat as reflective snow and ice melt away. Even in a world that reaches net zero emissions by mid-century, warming in Canada is expected to climb to 3.5° C over pre-industrial levels before stabilizing near 2100. That means the best-case scenario requires planning for decades of worsening wildfires, droughts, storms and damage from extreme weather.

“But what comes after 2040 is still a choice: this report describes physics, not fate. The most optimistic future where Canada’s warming levels off around 3.5 degrees depends on the world reaching net zero in the 2070s. Current global policies do not get us there. Continuing down the path we’re on, Canada will face average temperature increases of 5° C by 2100, and still be warming. In that scenario, glaciers in Western Canada would virtually disappear; winter warming would top 10 degrees across much of Nunavut and Nunavik; and the southern Prairies will face up to five times as many severe droughts compared to today. If, instead, global emissions begin declining immediately and reach net zero in the 2070s, average warming in Canada would level out at 3.5° C.

“The gap between these two futures is enormous, and the difference will be measured in lives lost, homes destroyed, and communities and livelihoods damaged beyond recognition. In dollar figures, our research estimates the cost to Canada’s economy at hundreds of billions of dollars a year by 2100.

“Adapting now can limit damage from the warming that is already locked in—and it will pay for itself many times over. Every dollar invested in preparing infrastructure, communities and businesses for floods, heat, and heavy rain returns up to $15 in avoided losses, according to our analysis. Cutting emissions in Canada and around the globe will decide the rest, including whether Canadians have to live with the consequences of more than 5° C of warming or 3.5° C.

“Current government action is not keeping pace with the speed of climate change. Ottawa’s own progress report on its National Adaptation Strategy shows the country is not prepared for the risks ahead. And recent shifts in federal policy have put Canada’s net-zero commitment further out of reach, while undermining our credibility to press other countries for the emissions reductions we need to stave off 5° C of heating.

“This report should concern every decision-maker in Canada. All orders of government should significantly accelerate both emissions reductions and adaptation, because the current level of effort is nowhere near enough to prepare us for what is coming.”

RESOURCES

Report | Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada
Report | Prepare or Repair: How climate-proofing public infrastructure pays off
Report | Building Strength Through Shelter: Policy prescriptions for Indigenous Healthy Energy Homes
Fact Sheet | Climate change and wildfires
Fact Sheet | Climate change and flooding
Fact Sheet | Climate change and heat waves

CONTACT

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications & External Relations
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
Lead, Public Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

About the Canadian Climate Institute

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Churchill Falls deal is massive progress for new clean power and electrifying Canada’s economy

OTTAWA—Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the agreement between Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and the federal government on the future of Churchill Falls and broader investments in clean power and transmission:

“Today’s announcement from the provinces of Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador and the federal government promises to unlock an enormous amount of new reliable clean power and transmission to the benefit of people and businesses across Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and beyond.

“This is the scale of clean energy ambition that is necessary across the country in order to meet the Prime Minister’s commitment to doubling the size of Canada’s electricity grids and electrifying more of the national economy. It demonstrates that positive outcomes can be achieved through co-operation between governments, including Indigenous communities, that drives investment and leads to more interconnected provincial electricity markets.

“It also shows the critical role the federal government can play in catalyzing these types of agreements with financial support to accelerate the growth of cleaner, bigger grids that attract large industrial users with low-cost electricity. That aligns with previous research from the Canadian Climate Institute outlining the rationale for the federal government to play a larger role in growing clean power to electrify the economy. The new agreement brings much-needed investment certainty for the Churchill Falls and Gull Island hydroprojects and will spur substantial new onshore wind power projects in Newfoundland and Labrador. It will also improve energy security and affordability in a time of volatile energy price swings while driving down emissions.

“We’re pleased to see the federal government helping facilitate the development of this deal and look forward to seeing more positive developments in other regions of the country that unlock more affordable clean power. As work on these projects move from agreement-in-principle to design and development, it will also be crucial that Indigenous rights holders are meaningfully included in the decision-making process.”

RESOURCES

Report | Power Play: How to supercharge Canada’s clean electricity advantage
Report | Policy brief: Powering Canada Forward Fund
Blog | How Canada can build electricity transmission to unlock nation-building projects
Insight | The big switch in Canada’s electricity emissions
Report | TheBig Switch: Powering Canada’s net zero future

MEDIA CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time, French/English)
Lead, Communications and External Relations
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time, English)
Lead, Public Affairs
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212 9883

ABOUT US

The Canadian Climate Institute is an independent climate policy research organization that produces rigorous research, analysis, and economic modelling, drawing on experts and leaders across the country. Our work focuses on: accelerating clean growth and low-carbon competitiveness; measuring progress in Canada’s clean energy transition; amplifying Indigenous perspectives and climate solutions; unlocking sustainable investment; and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.

Repealing Canada’s electric vehicle standard and delaying its replacement puts 2035 sales goal at risk

OTTAWA—Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the federal government’s repeal of the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard and delay of the implementation of its strengthened tailpipe emissions standard:

“The Prime Minister has been clear in his commitment to implementing new vehicle emissions rules that would deliver carbon reductions equivalent to reaching a 75 per cent market share of electric vehicles by 2035 and 90 per cent by 2040.

“While it is good news that the federal government has reiterated this commitment to stronger emission standards for Canada’s vehicle fleet, it is disappointing that these new rules will be further delayed. Make no mistake: kicking this down the road will mean Canadians are left with fewer electric vehicle options and higher total operating costs for getting around their communities.

“Our analysis shows Canada is currently not on track to its EV targets, while others have shown that the government’s current emissions standards proposal will need to be strengthened to meet the Prime Minister’s stated goal of 75 per cent EV share emissions levels.

“Global data shows EV market share is growing rapidly in markets outside of North America. The International Energy Agency expects sales of EVs to reach nearly 30 per cent by the end of this year. Canada remains significantly behind the global trend.

“The government has now removed one pathway to its EV objectives while delaying the policy intended to replace it. The test is therefore straightforward: the new standards need to be strong enough to deliver the EV deployment the Prime Minister has promised, and they need to be implemented quickly. Otherwise, Canada will fall further behind on the very outcomes the government says it wants to achieve.”

RESOURCES

MEDIA CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

ABOUT US

National progress report shows Canada is not prepared for the climate risks ahead

Toronto—Ryan Ness, Director of Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the release of the federal government’s National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) progress report:

“Ottawa’s update on its National Adaptation Strategy documents a good deal of activity—but little sign that any of it is actually reducing the escalating climate and extreme weather risks that Canadians face.

“This summer’s catastrophic wildfires that have destroyed communities, forced thousands to evacuate, and shrouded cities in toxic smoke are the latest signal that Canada must accelerate climate adaptation.

“The Progress Report highlights important forward movement, including a wide range of federal programs, tools, funding, and co-ordination efforts underway across the country. What’s missing is clear evidence that these initiatives are reducing climate risk in a meaningful way at a national level. By tracking programs rather than results, the progress report paints an overly-optimistic picture of success.

“On the government’s own evidence, the report shows that Canada is falling behind on climate adaptation on many fronts. Up to 1.5 million households still face flood risk so severe they are effectively uninsurable. Only a third of Canadians have taken steps to prepare for climate risks—short of the strategy’s 50 per cent target for 2025. Indigenous communities remain among the most exposed to climate-driven extreme weather risks, yet Ottawa has not lived up to the strategy’s commitments to support Indigenous-led climate adaptation action.

“Where the report does indicate progress, significant gaps still remain. Despite reporting that climate resilience is now factored into all federal infrastructure funding—a target it marks ‘100 per cent achieved’—those requirements are inconsistently applied and do not prevent funding being used for development in high risk areas. It points to growing use of climate data and services, but most Canadians still lack clear information about the climate risks they face. And its commitment to co-ordinate adaptation bilaterally with every province and territory has only resulted in discussions with a handful of jurisdictions thus far.

“The National Adaptation Strategy may be an important foundation—but on its own it has not driven the progress Canadians need. As the Climate Institute’s original assessment of the National Adaptation Strategy urged, what’s required now is a focused set of concrete measures, targeted at the highest climate risks and backed by investment, clear timelines, and accountability to deliver real reduction in risk. Anything less continues to leave Canadians exposed to a climate threat that is growing much faster than our defences.

RESOURCES

CONTACT

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
Lead, Public Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
226 212 9883

About the Canadian Climate Institute

climateinstitute.ca

New federal fund proposed to finance power grid expansion while keeping prices down

OTTAWA—The Canadian Climate Institute and global clean energy finance expert Michael Liebreich have published a joint Policy Brief proposing the federal government establish a new long-term help fund to ensure Canada can keep electricity rates affordable as it works toward doubling its electricity grid capacity over the decades ahead.

The proposed Powering Canada Forward Fund would address a fundamental barrier to achieving the speed and scale of electricity grid expansion outlined in the National Electricity Strategy: namely, keeping power bills remain affordable for rate payers during a surge of investment in electricity generation, transmission, and storage infrastructure across the country.

The Institute’s research has found that expanding the supply of clean, affordable, and abundant electricity across Canada is a crucial step toward attracting investment and boosting competitiveness as demand for electricity surges due to the electrification of transport and heating and new industries such as data centres. Doubling Canada’s electricity system is also a critical lever to improving domestic energy security, promoting affordability, and decarbonizing the economy.

But substantially increasing the rate of electrification of the economy requires significant anticipatory investment; if the cost of that investment is immediately levied against existing power users, it could drive up bills to levels that deter the very electrification that is required. The Powering Canada Forward Fund would help keep electricity rates affordable for users by distributing the costs of electricity investments over a longer period of time. Doing so would mean that new electricity infrastructure is paid down progressively as demand grows and helps cover the bill, keeping rates manageable for all users over time. The federally-supported fund would also remove demand growth risk from the provinces, and use the federal balance sheet to limit fiscal costs and keep electricity affordable over time.

The strategic importance of abundant and affordable clean electricity underpins Canada’s draft National Electricity Strategy as well as provincial efforts to scale up their electricity systems. Around the world too, countries are placing new emphasis on electrification, which is expected to be a major theme at the COP31 Climate Summit in Antalya, Türkiye and in the G20’s agenda for 2027.

While Canada has some existing finance mechanisms to support electricity system investment, such as the Canada Infrastructure Bank and Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit, neither is designed to smooth the price impact of an investment surge. The proposed Powering Canada Forward Fund would complement those tools and bridge the financing gap in two important ways:

Aligning costs and benefits for ratepayers over time. It would enable rapid deployment of capital up-front to expand and modernize electricity systems now, while deferring the cost of the expansion to a larger base of future ratepayers—those who will stand to benefit from the expanded electricity system once it’s built.
Shifting risks from provinces and ratepayers to the federal government and taxpayers. Federally-underwritten funding would accelerate the grid expansion necessary to attract investment and power economic growth, while buffering provinces and ratepayers from the possibility that the growth of future electricity demand lags expectations.

Further details on important financial and operational design recommendations for the proposed Powering Canada Forward Fund are outlined in the Policy Brief, which forms part of the Institute’s official submission to the public consultation on the National Electricity Strategy and forthcoming federal budget.

QUOTES

“The Canadian government has been crystal clear about its ambitions to double the size of Canada’s electricity systems—but it doesn’t have the full set of financial tools to get the job done. The proposed Powering Canada Forward Fund can help transform today’s aging and underpowered grids to supply the abundant, reliable and affordable clean electricity that will supercharge Canada’s future economic growth.”

— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“From the UK and Europe to the U.S. and China and Singapore, Canada’s global peers and trading partners are retooling their electricity systems and entire economies for rapidly growing power demand. Our proposal would accelerate Canada’s essential, once-in-a-generation investment in electrification with a mechanism that smooths out the price impacts of investing in the grid. It is a practical, equitable and strategic approach, which will help keep the country’s electricity systems one step ahead of demand growth while limiting price increases and providing enhanced energy security.

— Michael Liebreich, global energy finance expert and Chairman and CEO, Liebreich Associates

RESOURCES

Policy Brief | Powering Canada Forward Fund
Report | Power Play: How to supercharge Canada’s clean electricity advantage

CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
Lead, Public Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

About the Canadian Climate Institute

climateinstitute.ca

About Michael Liebreich

Michael Liebreich is a leading global expert on clean energy and transportation, smart infrastructure, technology, climate finance and sustainable development. He is chairman and CEO of Liebreich Associates and co-managing partner of EcoPragma Capital, chair of PragmaCharge and the founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

FACT SHEET: Climate change and wildfires

Download fact sheet

Accelerating climate change, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, makes wildfires bigger, hotter, and more destructive (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.). With Canada warming twice as fast as the global average (Government of Canada 2019), and home to more than a quarter of the world’s boreal forests, the country is experiencing this consequence of global heating firsthand.

The last three fire seasons have been among the 10 worst on record. Canada experienced its most destructive wildfire season ever in 2023, with fires consuming 16.5 million hectares—more than double the previous record and nearly seven times more than the historical average (Natural Resources Canada 2024).

In 2024, the Jasper wildfire in Alberta destroyed one-third of the town’s structures and was among the most expensive natural disasters in Canadian history, with insured damages estimated to be $1.23 billion (Insurance Bureau of Canada, 2025). 2025 was the second worst wildfire season in Canadian history, with over 8.3 million hectares burned, and fires impacting nearly every province and territory (Public Safety Canada, 2025).

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

Our research finds that to keep Canadians safe from wildfires and other worsening climate hazards, governments must play both defence and offence—protecting people and ecosystems while accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels to limit climate heating (Sawyer et al. 2022).

Climate change makes wildfires worse

Fire season is starting earlier, is lasting longer, and is harder to contain (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.; Natural Resources Canada 2022). Zombie fires are even beginning to smoulder through the winter (Shingler 2024).
While forest fires are naturally occurring disturbances that contribute to the health and renewal of many forest ecosystems (Canadian Council of Forest Ministers 2019), fires are burning hotter and wilder as the climate warms, causing much greater destruction.
Canadian forests are more susceptible to high-severity fires in a warming climate (Wang et. al 2025). While there is no increase in the overall number of wildfires, the number and size of large and very large fires is increasing, along with the annual area burned (Hanes et. al. 2025).
Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada in 2023 (World Weather Attribution 2023).
An overheating climate is making Canadian summers hotter and drier, with more erratic rainfall, including less summer rain in some regions (Bush and Lemmen 2019; Gifford et al. 2022). Wildfires are more likely to spread rapidly, with dry, windy days increasing by up to 50% in western Canada and doubling or tripling in eastern Canada (Wang et. al 2017).
Research has shown that climate change is extending ‘burning hours’ by weakening the natural day-night temperature cycle that once slowed wildfires, allowing them to burn more intensely overnight and spread faster (Luo 2026).
A warming climate is leading to decreased annual snow cover across Canada’s north in May and June, leading to drier conditions which increase wildfire risk (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2025).
Lighting strikes become more frequent as the climate warms (McKabe 2023). Ninety-three per cent of the area burned in Canada in 2023 was from fires ignited by lightning; only 7 per cent by human-ignition (Jain et al. 2024).
Elevated wildfire risk from climate change means that, whatever the cause, fires catch, spread, and get out of control much more easily.
Fire suppression has increased wildfire risk in parts of the country by allowing fuel to build up in some forested areas, but this is a localized effect.
Suppression has historically been minimal across most of Canada’s forests: only about one-fifth of the country’s burned area between 1986 and 2023 occurred within actively managed forests where fire was suppressed (Beverley 2024). Even as forest management practices have remained largely unchanged, annual area burned and the length of the fire season have continued to increase in a changing climate.

Wildfires are damaging people’s health and wellbeing

The smoke from wildfires can spread thousands of kilometres (NASA Earth Observatory 2015), requiring school closures and causing other disruptions while threatening the health of millions of people (Lin 2023), particularly children, seniors, and people with heart or lung disease.
Hot-burning wildfires release dangerous levels of particulate matter into the air, which is associated with an increased risk of issues like heart disease, cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, and brain cancer (Egyed et al. 2022; Korsiak et al. 2022).
Between 2020-2024, increased wildfire smoke was responsible for an annual average of 1,400 deaths in Canada (Romanello et. al 2025). Smoke from Canada’s 2023 wildfires is estimated to have caused more than 80,000 premature deaths globally (Zhang et. al 2025).
Heavy smoke takes a significant toll on the Canadian healthcare system. A single week of wildfire smoke in June 2023 was estimated to have cost Ontario over $1.2 billion (Sawyer et al. 2023) in health impacts such as premature deaths, increased hospital visits, and health emergencies.
Poor air quality from smoke hits the most vulnerable the hardest (Government of Canada, 2022). The impacts of smoke are even more serious for groups like children, seniors, pregnant people, and those who work outdoors.
Smoke from larger wildfires is exacerbating asthma across parts of Western Canada (Matz et al. 2020), and the aftermath of climate-related fires and floods takes a significant toll on mental health (Belleville et al. 2019).
Wildfires can destroy homes and communities, devastate fragile ecosystems, and threaten economic security. These effects have been linked to post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, and suicidal thoughts (Hayes et al. 2022).

Worsening wildfires are making life more expensive

Wildfires can destroy property, homes, and entire communities, driving up insurance costs and making life more expensive (Gerety 2024; Vaillant 2024).
The cost of wildfire protection has risen by about $150 million per decade since the 1970s (Pittis, 2023). These costs now regularly exceed $1 billion per year (Government of Canada, 2026).
The 2016 wildfire in Fort McMurray, Alberta, cost an estimated $9 billion in direct and indirect physical, financial, health, and environmental impacts (ICLR 2019). It triggered the largest evacuation in Canadian history, destroying more than 2,400 structures and displacing 85,000 people.
Wildfires impact key sectors of the economy, including the forest industry, one of Canada’s largest employers (Lindsay and Pelai 2024). Wildfires can disrupt forestry operations and reduce the amount of timber available, hurting workers and forest-dependent communities in the process. During the 2017 wildfires in British Columbia, 40 forestry companies were temporarily shut down (Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy 2019).
The accumulating impacts of global heating, including bigger and more frequent wildfires, are raising the cost of living in Canada from lost jobs, reduced economic activity, and tax hikes to pay for disaster recovery and infrastructure repairs. The additional climate change impacts between 2015 and 2025 alone will cost the average household $700 per year, and will continue to increase moving forward (Sawyer et al. 2022).

Governments can act to protect communities and slow further heating

Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.
Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased fire risks today.
Federal and provincial governments can promote fire resilience by limiting development in areas at high risk of wildfires, strengthening building codes and regulations (for example, building with fire-resistant materials), and improving forest and vegetation management through prescribed burns and other measures to help reduce fuel available to burn near at-risk communities (Bénichou et al. 2021).
Forest management also has clear limits. Prescribed burning and mechanical thinning require ongoing maintenance, are too costly and risky to apply across the vast scale of Canada’s forests, and are not designed to stop the extreme, weather driven fires that account for most of the area burned (Parisien et al. 2020). These tools are best suited to targeted applications, such as reducing fuel in forested areas surrounding at-risk communities, rather than as a strategy for preventing large scale wildfires across the entire Canadian landscape.
Alberta and British Columbia’s FireSmart programs are examples of initiatives that help communities and individuals reduce their fire risk (FireSmart Alberta 2024; FireSmart B.C. 2024).

Indigenous Peoples are disproportionately impacted, and leading on solutions

Indigenous communities in Canada have used controlled fire as traditional land management practice since time immemorial. Supporting these cultural burning practices can help reduce the risk of out-of-control wildfires (BC Wildfire Service 2022).
Eighty per cent of majority-Indigenous communities in Canada are located in fire-prone regions (Asfaw et al. 2019).
More than 42 per cent of wildfire evacuations have been from majority-Indigenous communities (Webber and Berger 2023).
Between 1980 and 2021 in Canada, 16 communities (Christianson et al. 2024) were evacuated five or more times, and all but two of those were First Nations reserves.

Resources

Public Health Risk Profile: Wildfires in Canada (Public Health Agency of Canada 2023)
Flame Wars: Misinformation and Wildfire in Canada’s Climate Conversation (Climate Action Against Disinformation 2024)
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (2024)
Forest Fires and Climate Change (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.)
Reporting Extreme Weather and Climate Change: A Guide for Journalists (World Weather Attribution 2024)
Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre Wildfire Statistics

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact:

Claudine Brulé
Lead, Communications and External Relations (French, English / Eastern Time)
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey
Public Affairs Lead (English / Mountain Time)
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883

References

Alam, Rafat, Shahidul Islam, Eric Mosely, Sean Thomas, Virginia Dowdell, Dawn Doel. 2019. Rapid Impact Assessment of Fort McMurray Wildfire. Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction and MacEwan University. https://www.iclr.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Rapid-Impact-Assessment-of-Fort-McMurray-Wildfire.pdf

Asfaw, Henok Workeye, Sandy Lake First Nation, Tara K. McGee, and Amy Cardinal Christianson. 2019. “A qualitative study exploring barriers and facilitators of effective service delivery for Indigenous wildfire hazard evacuees during their stay in host communities.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 41, 101300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101300

BC Wildfire Service. 2022. “How cultural burning enhances landscapes and lives.” May 5. https://blog.gov.bc.ca/bcwildfire/how-cultural-burning-enhances-landscapes-and-lives/

Bénichou, Noureddine, Masoud Adelzadeh, Jitender Singh, Islam Gomaa, Nour Elsagan, Max Kinateder, Chunyun Ma, Abhishek Gaur, Alex Bwalya, and Mohamed Sultan. 2021. National Guide for Wildland-Urban Interface Fires. National Research Council Canada. https://doi.org/10.4224/40002647

Belleville, Genevieve, Marie-Christine Ouellet, and Charles M. Morin. 2019. “Post-traumatic stress among evacuees from the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires: exploration of psychological and sleep symptoms three months after the evacuation.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(9), 1604. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16091604

Bush, E., and D. S. Lemmen, editors. 2019. Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/

Beverly, Jennifer L. 2024. “Rethinking Fire Risk and Forest Management.” Policy Magazine, September 16. https://www.policymagazine.ca/rethinking-fire-risk-and-forest-management/

Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 2019. “Natural Disturbances.” https://www.ccfm.org/healthy-forests/natural-disturbances/

Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. 2024. “Wildfire Graphs: Annual area burned in Canada.” https://ciffc.net/statistics

Canadian Wildland Fire Information System. 2024. “Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts.” Natural Resources Canada. https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/forecasts

Christianson, Amy Cardinal, Lynn M. Johnston, Jacqueline A. Oliver, David Watson, David Young, Heather MacDonald, John Little, Bruce Macnab, and Noemie Gonzalez Bautista. 2024. “Wildland fire evacuations in Canada from 1980 to 2021.” International Journal of Wildland Fire, 33(7). https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23097

Clarke, Ben, and Friederike Otto. 2024. “Reporting extreme weather and climate change: A guide of journalists.” World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/reporting-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-a-guide-for-journalists/

Climate Action Against Disinformation. Flame Wars: Misinformation and Wildfire in Canada’s Climate Conversation. June 11. https://caad.info/analysis/reports/flame-wars-misinformation-and-wildfire-in-canadas-climate-conversation/

Climate Atlas of Canada. n.d. “Forest Fires and Climate Change.” https://climateatlas.ca/forest-fires-and-climate-change

Egyed, Marika, Phil Blagden, et al. 2022. “Air Quality.” In P. Berry & R. Schnitter (Eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada.

Environment and Climate Change Canada. 2026. “Snow Cover.” March 26.
https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/snow-cover.html

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Gerety, Rowan Moore. “How does a tiny mountain town, burned to the ground, come back.” New York Times, March 12. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/travel/lytton-fire-canada.html

Gifford, Robert, Craig Brown, Carrie Baron, Denni Clement, Natalya Melnychuk, Harry Nelson, Luke Sales, and Dave Spittlehouse. 2022. British Columbia Chapter in Canada in a Changing Climate: Regional Perspectives Report. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/regional-perspectives/chapter/5-0/

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Government of Canada. 2024. “Cost of Wildland Fire Protection.” May 13. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/cost-fire-protection/17783

Hanes, Chelene C., Piyush Jain, Weiwei Wang, Xianli Wang, Marc-André Parisien, John M. Little, and Mike D. Flannigan. 2025. “Fire Regime Changes in Canada: An Update.” Canadian Journal of Forest Research 55: 1–11. doi:10.1139/cjfr-2025-0209.

Hayes, Katie, Ashley Cunsolo, et al. 2022. “Mental Health and Well-Being.” In P. Berry & R. Schnitter (Eds.), Health of Canadians in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. Government of Canada.

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IPCC, 2022. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press. https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844

Jain, Piyush, Quinn E. Barber, Steve Taylor, et al. 2024. Canada Under Fire: Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season. ESS Open Archive, February 28.

Jones, Alexandra Mae. 2025. “This is our second-worst wildfire season on record – and could be the new normal.” CBC, August 12. https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/wildfire-season-2025-1.7606371

Korsiak, Jill, Lauren Pinault, et al. 2022. “Long-term exposure to wildfires and cancer incidence in Canada: A population-based observational cohort study.” The Lancet, May. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00067-5

Lin, Elizabeth Ziying. 2023. “Canadian Wildfire Smoke Associated with Increased Asthma Cases in NYC.” Yale School of Public Health, October 5. https://ysph.yale.edu/news-article/canadian-wildfire-smoke-associated-with-increased-asthma-cases-in-nyc/

Lindsay, Kate, and Ricardo Pelai. 2024. “Canada needs to get ready for a future fraught with fire: How can the forest sector respond?” Canadian Climate Institute, January 31. https://climateinstitute.ca/canada-fires-forest-sector/

Luo, Kaiwei, Xianli Wang, Dante Castellanos-Acuna, and Mike Flannigan. 2026. “A Weakened Diurnal Weather Constraint Leads to Longer Burning Hours in North America.” Science Advances 12(16): eaed0725. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aed0725.

Matz, Carlyn J., Marika Egyed, Guoliang Xi, Jacinthe Racine, Radenko Pavlovic, Robyn Rittmaster, Sarah B. Henderson, and David M. Stieb. 2020. “Health impact analysis of PM2. 5 from wildfire smoke in Canada (2013–2015, 2017–2018).” Science of The Total Environment, 725, 138506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138506

McKabe, Kirsty. 2023. “How does climate change affect thunderstorms?” Royal Meteorological Society, July 20. https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/how-does-climate-change-affect-thunderstorms

Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy. 2019. Preliminary Strategic Climate Risk Assessment for British Columbia. Report prepared for the Government of British Columbia. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/adaptation/riskassessment

NASA Earth Observatory. 2015. “Canadian Wildfires Produce River of Smoke.” June 29. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/86151/canadian-wildfires-produce-river-of-smoke

Natural Resources Canada. 2022. “Climate Change and Fire.” https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/wildland-fires-insects-disturbances/climate-change-fire/13155

Natural Resources Canada. 2024a. “Canada’s record-breaking wildfires in 2023: A fiery wake-up call.” April 21. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/simply-science/canadas-record-breaking-wildfires-2023-fiery-wake-call/25303

Natural Resources Canada. 2026. “Fighting and Managing Wildfires in a Changing Climate Program.” Government of Canada. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/forests-forestry/wildland-fires/fighting-managing-wildfires-changing-climate-program.

Owen, Brenna. 2025. “Study estimates 2023 Canadian wildfire smoke caused more than 80,000 deaths globally.” The Canadian Press, September 10. https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/environment/study-estimates-2023-canadian-wildfire-smoke-caused-82-000-premature-deaths-globally/article_437ae58b-a1a6-5ac4-b02a-25aa40c1b425.html

Pittis, Don. 2023. “Canadian Forest Fires Are the Latest Costly Climate Disaster That Public Accounts Fail to Capture.” CBC News, May 18. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fires-climate-accounting-column-don-pittis-1.6846066

Public Health Agency of Canada. 2023. “Public Health Risk Profile: Wildfires in Canada, 2023.” July 23. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/emergency-preparedness-response/rapid-risk-assessments-public-health-professionals/risk-profile-wildfires-2023.html

Public Safety Canada. 2025. “Government of Canada provides update on 2025 wildfires as support continues.” October 30.
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Romanello, Marina, Maria Walawender, Shih-Che Hsu, Annalyse Moskeland, Yasna Palmeiro-Silva, Daniel Scamman, James W Smallcombe, et al. 2025. “The 2025 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: Climate Change Action Offers a Lifeline.” The Lancet 406(10521): 2804–57. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01919-1.

Sawyer, Dave, Ryan Ness, Caroline Lee, and Sarah Miller. 2022. Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/ damage-control

Sawyer, Dave, Seton Stiebert, and Colin Welburn. 2023. “With the Forest Ablaze, the Health Costs Hit Home”. Canadian Climate Institute, June 26. https://climateinstitute.ca/with-the-forest-ablaze-the-health-costs-hit-home/

Shingler, Benjamin. 2024. “It’s the middle of winter, and more than 100 wildfires are still smouldering.” CBC, February 21. https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/wildfires-zombie-fires-canada-bc-alberta-1.7119851

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Wang, Weiwei, Xianli Wang, Mike D. Flannigan, Luc Guindon, Tom Swystun, Dante Castellanos-Acuna, Wanli Wu, and Guangyu Wang. 2025. “Canadian Forests Are More Conducive to High-Severity Fires in Recent Decades.” Science 387(6729): 91–97. doi:10.1126/science.ado1006.

Wang, Xianli, Marc-André Parisien, Steve W Taylor, Jean-Noël Candau, Diana Stralberg, Ginny A Marshall, John M Little, and Mike D Flannigan. 2017. “Projected Changes in Daily Fire Spread across Canada over the next Century.” Environmental Research Letters 12(2): 025005. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5835.

Webber, Tammy, and Noah Berger. “Canadian wildfires hit Indigenous communities hard, threatening their land and culture.” Associated Press, July 19. https://apnews.com/article/canada-wildfire-indigenous-land-first-nations-impact-3faabbfadfe434d0bd9ecafb8770afce

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Zhang, Qiang, Yuexuanzi Wang, Qingyang Xiao, Guannan Geng, Steven J. Davis, Xiaodong Liu, Jin Yang, et al. 2025. “Long-Range PM2.5 Pollution and Health Impacts from the 2023 Canadian Wildfires.” Nature 645(8081): 672–78. doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09482-1.

FACT SHEET: Climate change and flooding

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In August 2024, the remnants of Hurricane Debby brought record-breaking floods to Quebec, inundating 55 communities. Just a month before, nearly 10 centimetres of rain fell in Toronto in three hours, overwhelming the city’s infrastructure and flooding many homes and businesses. In November 2021, an atmospheric river unleashed record-breaking rain in British Columbia, triggering landslides and floods that caused extensive damage, cutting off main access routes to several areas of the province, severely impairing the economy.

As climate change worsens, Canadians will experience a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of these kinds of flood events. Warmer air, caused by increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, holds more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall and more intense storms. This, combined with melting snow packs, rising sea levels, and changing weather patterns, has created the conditions for more severe and unpredictable flooding. These floods are devastating for communities, economies, and livelihoods.

Climate change is driving increasingly severe and frequent floods

Because of climate change, most regions in the country will experience increased rainfall, higher extreme rainfall, and increased severity in coastal storms (Vasseur et al. 2017; Zhang et al. 2019).
Research shows that climate change intensifies many contributing factors that combine to elevate flood risk, including heavier rainfall and storm surges amplified by sea level rise (Denchak 2023; Greenan et al. 2019).
Climate heating means that warmer air can hold more water than cooler air, increasing the risk of heavier and more extreme rainfall events. More rain is likely to fall in short, intense bursts rather than being spread out over a longer period (Westra et al. 2014).
Increasingly frequent and severe short-duration rainfall events increase the likelihood of flash floods, especially in urban areas, by overwhelming storm sewers and drainage systems (Brown et al. 2021; Sandink 2015; Westra et al. 2014).

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

Parts of southern British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces have seen an increase of two to three heavy rainfall days per year on average (Vincent et al. 2018; Zhang et al. 2019).
Climate models project that by the end of the century, a 1-in-20 year extreme rainfall event in Canada could occur every 5 to 15 years, while the amount of 24-hour extreme precipitation is projected to increase by more than 5% to 12% (Zhang et al. 2019).

Floods can severely damage homes and infrastructure, costing billions of dollars

Flooding is the most common and costly disaster in Canada. In the past decade, floods have averaged nearly $800 million in insured losses annually (Insurance Bureau of Canada 2024).
Insurers estimate that for every dollar in insured losses from flooding, there are two dollars in uninsured damage that are borne directly by households and taxpayers (Honegger and Oehy 2016).
Over 1.5 million homes across the country are located in areas of high flood risk (Ness and Florez Bossio 2024). Eighty per cent of Canadian cities are built, in whole or in part, on floodplains (Public Safety Canada 2022).
As extreme rainfall and coastal flooding increase, the annual costs of flood damage to homes and buildings in Canada could grow three to five times by mid-century—amounting to over $5.5 billion (Ness et al. 2021).
On July 16, 2024, in Toronto, nearly 10 centimetres of rain fell in three hours, leading to massive flooding across the city. The costs of this flooding reached nearly $900 million in insurable losses, with the total costs likely several times higher (Pereira 2024; Musselwhite 2025).
Between August 8 and 10, 2024, the remnants of Hurricane Debby brought widespread flooding to southern Quebec and eastern Ontario. Insured losses from this event are roughly $2.8 billion, making it the costliest extreme weather event in Quebec’s history (CatIQ 2025).
Canada has experienced five billion-dollar-plus flood events since 2011 (Insurance Bureau of Canada 2023; Manitoba Flood Review Task Force 2013; Insurance Bureau of Canada 2024; Public Safety Canada 2023).
Many Canadian homeowners believe they have insurance that will pay for repairs and rebuilding after overland flooding, but only about 10 to 15 per cent of households are actually covered (Posadzki 2017).
The households facing the highest flood risk in Canada either can’t get flood insurance or can’t afford it because the rates are so high (Public Safety Canada 2022).

More frequent and intense floods put people and communities at risk

Heavy rainfall events can overwhelm small drinking water treatment systems, degrading water quality and increasing the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks (Wang et al. 2018).
Over half of the waterborne disease outbreaks in the past 50 years in the United States occurred after episodes of extreme rainfall (Charron et al. 2011).
Floods can be fatal, as people drown while wading or driving through flood waters or are trapped in flooded buildings (Government of Canada 2021).
Injuries are common during and after floods due to swiftly moving heavy objects, damaged electrical wiring and appliances, and the risk of hypothermia from cold floodwater (Government of Canada 2021).
The psychosocial impacts of flooding are significant, increasing family conflicts, financial stress, and feelings of isolation. In some cases, flooding can trigger or exacerbate mental health conditions such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (Glenn and Myre 2022).
A few months after the Quebec floods of 2019, 44 per cent of those affected had moderate to high symptoms of post-traumatic stress, 21 per cent had symptoms of anxiety disorders, and 20 per cent had developed mood disorders (Institut national de santé publique du Québec 2024).
Flooded buildings are quickly colonized by mold, fungi, and bacteria, which can cause or aggravate skin, allergy, eye, respiratory, and gastrointestinal problems such as asthma, conjunctivitis, and otitis (Institut national de santé publique du Québec 2024).

Governments can act to protect communities from worsening flood risk

Flooding will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere continues to increase. Government action to manage this growing risk and limit further emissions is essential.
Because the impacts of climate change on flooding are already here and getting worse from the emissions that have already occurred, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased risk of floods today and into the future.
Some of the key adaptation actions governments can take to reduce flood risk and protect communities include:
- Shifting development away from high-risk flood zones: To prevent placing more homes in harm’s way, provincial and municipal governments could restrict building in areas with high flood risk. Research from the Canadian Climate Institute shows that steering development away from high-hazard areas in the next decade can prevent between $340 million and $2 billion per year in new flood losses without limiting housing growth (Ness et. al 2025).
- Enhancing flood protection infrastructure at the community level: Investing in new and improved flood protection infrastructure, such as levees, floodwalls, and nature-based solutions, can cost-effectively safeguard communities at risk of flooding (Ness et al. 2021).
- Support proactive relocation from high-risk areas: In a few areas where flood risk is too high to provide adequate protection, governments should engage with homeowners and communities to consider proactive relocation, offering appropriate assistance and incentives for moving to safer areas (Public Safety Canada 2022).

References and resources

Three things governments need to do to protect homeowners and renters from the insurance industry’s perfect storm (Bourque 2022)
Reporting Extreme Weather and Climate Change: A Guide for Journalists (Clark and Otto 2024)
Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure (Ness et al. 2021)

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
Zach Carriere is Research Associate in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Eastern Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact:

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time, English, French)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time, English)
Lead, Public Affairs
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883

References

Bourque, Julien. 2021. “Three things governments need to do to protect homeowners and renters from the insurance industry’s perfect storm.” December 13. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/three-things-governments-need-to-do/

Brown, Craig, Ewa Jackson, Deborah Harford, and David Bristow. 2021. “Cities and Towns” Chapter 2. In Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues Report, F.J. Warren and N. Lulham (Eds). Government of Canada. p. 26

Catastrophic Indices and Quantification Inc.. 2025. “CAD 2.806 B – CatIQ Discloses Updated Industry Loss for the Flooding from the Remnants of Hurricane Debby in August 2024” CatIQ. https://public.catiq.com/2025/08/12/cad-2-806-b-catiq-discloses-updated-industry-loss-for-the-flooding-from-the-remnants-of-hurricane-debby-in-august-2024/

Charron, Dominique F., M. Kathleen Thomas, David Waltner-Toews, Jeffery J. Aramini, Tom Edge, Robert A. Kent, Abdel R. Maarouf, and Jeff Wilson. 2004. “Vulnerability of waterborne diseases to climate change in Canada: A review.” Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A 67(20–22): 1667–1677. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15287390490492313

Denchak, Melissa. 2023. “Flooding and Climate Change: Everything You Need to Know.” Natural Resources Defense Council, November 3. https://www.nrdc.org/stories/flooding-and-climate-change-everything-you-need-know#facts

Glenn, Nicole, and Maxine Myre. 2022. “Post-Flooding Community-Level Psychosocial Impacts and Priorities in Canada: A Preliminary Report.” National Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health, November 22. https://ncceh.ca/resources/evidence-reviews/post-flooding-community-level-psychosocial-impacts-and-priorities-canada

Government of Canada. 2021. “Climate Change and Public Health Factsheets.” Public Health Agency of Canada, February 1. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/health-promotion/environmental-public-health-climate-change/climate-change-public-health-factsheets-floods.html

Greenan, Blair J. W., Thomas S. James, John W. Loder, Pierre Pepin, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Debby Ianson, Roberta C. Hamme, Denis Gilbert, Jean-Éric Tremblay, Xiaolan L. Wang, and Will Perrie. 2019. “Changes in oceans surrounding Canada”; Chapter 7 in E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (Eds.) Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada. p. 343-423. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/7-0/

Honegger, Caspar, and Christoph Oehy. 2016. The road to flood resilience in Canada. Swiss Re. https://www.preventionweb.net/files/49295_theroadtofloodresilienceincanada.pdf

Institut national de santé publique du Québec. 2024. “Inondations.” Institut national de santé publique du Québec, April 3. https://www.inspq.qc.ca/changements-climatiques/menaces/inondations

Insurance Bureau of Canada. 2024. “Severe Weather in 2023 Caused Over $3.1 Billion in Insured Damage”. January 8. https://www.ibc.ca/news-insights/news/severe-weather-in-2023-caused-over-3-1-billion-in-insured-damage

Musselwhite, Beth. 2025. “CatIQ reduces 2024 Ontario flash flooding loss estimate by 9% to CAD 899m” Reinsurance news, July 16. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/catiq-reduces-2024-ontario-flash-flooding-loss-estimate-by-9-to-cad-899m/

Ness, Ryan, Dylan G. Clark, Julien Bourque, Dena Coffman, and Dale Beugin. 2021. Under Water: The Cost of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure. Canadian Climate Institute, September. https://climatechoices.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Infrastructure-English-FINAL-jan17-2022.pdf

Ness, Ryan, and Camila Florez Bossio. 2024. “High and dry: The rising tide of flood risks and the insurance dilemma.” Canadian Climate Institute. March 18. https://climateinstitute.ca/flood-insurance-risks-canada/

Ness, Ryan, Sarah Miller, Camila Flórez Bossio, Ricardo Pelai and Zacharie Carriere. 2025. Close to Home: How to build more housing in a changing climate. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/close-to-home/

Pereira, Ana. 2024. “Toronto’s ‘After’ Math: Total Damage from Flash Flood Could Surpass $1 Billion. Here’s How Much Floods Cost Homeowners Every Year.” Toronto Star, July 17. https://www.thestar.com/business/toronto-s-after-math-total-damage-from-flash-flood-could-surpass-1-billion-here-s/article_091766d4-4447-11ef-a1ea-eb24413392a4.html

Posadzki, Alexandra. 2017. “Majority of Canadian homeowners not insured for flooding: experts.” The Globe and Mail, May 8. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/majority-of-canadian-homeowners-not-insured-for-flooding-experts/article34925679/

Public Safety Canada. 2022. Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Public Safety Canada, November 10. https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/dptng-rsng-fld-rsk-2022/index-en.aspx#s3.2

Sandink, Dan. 2015. “Urban Flooding and Ground‐related Homes in Canada: An Overview.” Journal of Flood Risk Management 9(3): 208–23. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12168

Vasseur, Liette, Mary Thornbush, and Steve Plante. 2017. “Climatic and Environmental Changes Affecting Communities in Atlantic Canada.” Sustainability 9(8): 1293. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/8/1293

Vincent, L.A. X. Zhang, É. Mekis, H Wan, and E.J. Bush. 2018. “Changes in Canada’s Climate: Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data.” Atmosphere-Ocean 56(5): 332–49. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579#abstract

Wang, Yi, Edward McBean, and Bahram Gharabaghi. 2018. “Increased Risks of Waterborne Disease Outbreaks in Northern Ontario Due to Climate Change.” Journal of Water Management Modeling. https://doi.org/10.14796/jwmm.c436

Westra, Seth., H.J. Fowler, J. P. Evans, L.V. Alexander, P. Berg, F. Johnson, E. J. Kendon, G. Lenderink, and N. M. Roberts. 2014. “Future Changes to the Intensity and Frequency of Short-Duration Extreme Rainfall.” Reviews of Geophysics 52: 522–555. doi:10.1002/2014RG000464. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014RG000464

Zhang, Xuebin, Greg Flato, Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Lucie Vincent, Hui Wan, Xiaolan L. Wang, Robin Rong, John Fyfe, Guilong Li, and Viatchelsav V. Kharin. 2019. “Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada”. Chapter 4. in E. Bush, and D. S. Lemmen (Eds.) Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada. pp 112-193. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/

New Canada-B.C. agreement invests in electricity grid flexibility and reliability

Ottawa—Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the Canada-British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement:

“New federal funding for expanding British Columbia’s clean power grid, announced today as part of the Canada-B.C. agreement, will help create a more flexible, reliable supply of electricity, while powering industrial growth and advancing Canada’s clean electricity advantage. The $3.9 billion federal commitment to support the North Coast Transmission Line will send more affordable, clean electricity to B.C.’s northwest, while laying the foundation for a clean-energy corridor with the Yukon.

“As the Canadian Climate Institute’s recent research report underscores, the federal government has a critical role to play in supporting the build-out of the electricity grid, while also co-operating with and respecting the jurisdiction of provinces, territories, and Indigenous communities. Our research shows that proactive investment in transmission can make grids more flexible, help investment in both new demand and supply while keeping rates competitive.

“New federal investment in the Red Chris Mine expansion is a welcome signal that the government is committed to securing Canada’s place in the race for the critical minerals. As global demand surges, securing these key ingredients will support Canada—and the world’s—appetite for a key ingredient in the global energy transition.

That said, our research finds that public dollars should be used cautiously to catalyze private investment. We look forward to learning more about how federal investment will reduce emissions at the mine by 70 per cent, and how these critical mineral projects will be advanced in partnership with and in respect for Indigenous rights.

“Finally, while we await more details on the agreement to establish a new National Carbon Credit Framework, it is promising to see provincial-federal co-ordination on this important initiative.”

RESOURCES

CONTACT

Jaela Bernstien (Eastern Time)
Senior Communications Specialist
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

About the Canadian Climate Institute

climateinstitute.ca

FACT SHEET: Climate change and heat waves

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Climate change, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, is causing more frequent and intense heat waves (Giguere et. al 2025). These heat waves are threatening the safety, well-being, and prosperity of Canadians—even in cities that have historically had more moderate climates, such as Vancouver, Whitehorse, and Halifax.

Globally, 2025 was one of the hottest years on record, while the past eleven years have been the eleven warmest on record (World Meteorological Organization 2026). Canada, which is warming faster than anywhere else on earth, is suffering the consequences of the overheating climate (McBean 2024). In 2025 record-shattering spring and summer temperatures spanned New Brunswick, British Columbia, the Yukon, the Northwest Territories, every Prairie province, and Northwestern Ontario, fueling the country’s second-worst wildfire season on record (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2025).

Climate change fuels heat waves

Climate change increases the frequency of extreme heat, and makes heat waves hotter, longer, and more widespread (Borenstein 2024; Rantanen 2024; Skinner et. al 2025).
Canada is warming twice as fast as the global average, and Canada’s Arctic is warming nearly four times as fast (Government of Canada 2019; Rantanen et al. 2022).
Climate projections show that by the second half of this century, many Canadian cities will see two to four times as many +30°C days per year on average compared to historical data (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.).
Climate change is increasingly stalling weather patterns and making long-lasting “heat domes” nearly three times more common today than in the 1950s (Li et. al 2025). A heat dome occurs when a persistent high-pressure weather system traps hot air over a region like a lid. This phenomenon triggered the deadly 2021 British Columbia heat wave.
In 2025, Canada experienced 12 extreme heat events, each made 2 to 10 times more likely due to climate change (Tamminga 2025).

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

Climate-fuelled heat makes wildfires worse

During Canada’s worst wildfire season on record, in 2023, climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions (high temperatures, low humidity, and drought conditions) in Eastern Canada, and made Québec’s season 50 per cent more intense (World Weather Attribution 2023).
Heat waves make it easier for wildfires to start and spread by increasing the likelihood of lightning strikes, the primary cause of wildfires (Pérez-Invernón et al. 2023). They also dry out vegetation, making it more flammable (Natural Resources Canada 2024).
During the 2021 heat wave in B.C., the number of active wildfires rose from six to 175, consuming nearly 79,000 hectares, including the entire town of Lytton (White et al. 2023).
For more information on climate change and wildfires, see our wildfires fact sheet.

Climate-fuelled extreme heat is causing rising death rates and health issues across Canada

Climate change has already expanded the reach of extreme heat. More than one third of the global population now lives in areas where heat severely limits safe physical activity (Parsons et. al 2026). In North America, extreme heat stress – the threshold where urgent action is needed to avoid severe health impacts – has doubled in frequency since the 1970s (Emerton et. al 2026).
A study in Nature found that between 1981 and 2018, 37 per cent of heat-related deaths globally were attributable to climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021). This increased mortality is evident on every continent.
Health risks from extreme heat include cardiovascular events, respiratory conditions, kidney disease, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and mental health impacts such as increased anxiety, depression, and aggressive behavior (Bell et. al 2024; Kwak et. al 2026; Neven & Quispel 2025).
Prolonged high temperatures are linked to long-term health consequences. Repeated exposure to heat waves causes physical stress which speeds up the aging process, at a rate comparable to smoking (Chen et. al 2025; Kreier 2025).
Climate change is worsening the frequency and intensity of extreme humid heat events, which increase the risk of heat illness, hospitalization, and death (Trudeau et. al 2026). High humidity prevents sweat from evaporating, which makes it harder for the body to cool itself down.
Elevated death rates have been documented during and following heat waves in Canada (Government of Canada 2024). The 2021 heat wave caused an estimated 619 heat-related deaths, making it the deadliest disaster in B.C.’s recorded history (BC Coroners Service 2022).
Our research shows that without action on adaptation and health system preparation, B.C. could average 2,200 heat-related deaths per year by 2050 (Beugin et al. 2023).
Scientists found that the 2021 B.C. heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change (Philip et al. 2022).
A 2024 study concluded that elevated summer temperatures in Québec are linked to 470 deaths, 225 hospitalizations, 36,000 emergency room visits, 7,200 ambulance transports, and 15,000 calls to Info-Santé every year (Boudreault et al. 2024). With climate change, the number of heat-related illnesses and deaths could double in the province by 2050 (Boudreault et al. 2025).

The economic burden of climate-fuelled extreme heat is growing

The Canadian Climate Institute’s 2021 report The Health Costs of Climate Change projected that the costs of heat-related deaths and reduced quality of life from extreme heat in Canada would reach $3 billion per year by mid-century (Clark et al. 2021).
Our analysis shows that the 2021 heat wave in B.C. caused $12 million in additional healthcare costs, and that the societal costs from premature deaths were $5.5 billion (Beugin et al., 2023).
Canada’s manufacturing sector alone could see annual losses of $1-2 billion by 2050, due to the productivity impacts of heat waves on the workforce (Clark et al. 2021).
Without adaptation, climate change-related damage from heat and rainfall will cost an additional $9.8 billion per year on average for roads, bridges, tunnels, and public transit between 2025 and 2100, according to our 2026 report Prepare or Repair: How climate-proofing public infrastructure pays off (Ness et. al 2026). Climate-related damage to electricity infrastructure, driven primarily by heat, could increase by $1.8 billion (Ness et al., 2021).

Governments can act to protect communities and slow further warming

Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022).
Governments must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming, while adapting and preparing for the health and safety risks from extreme heat.
Adaptation strategies can improve outcomes for the most vulnerable populations, including the elderly, children, people with chronic illness, and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups (Health Canada 2011).
Effective adaptation strategies include:
Installing indoor cooling devices like heat pumps or air conditioning, and planting green roofs and trees for shade. Our analysis shows these could reduce heat-related deaths and hospitalization 12 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in B.C. by the 2030s (Beugin et al. 2023).
Providing employers and the public with information on how to stay safe during extreme heat waves.
Sending early heat warnings to allow people, communities and responders to prepare.
Designing infrastructure to withstand extreme heat and rainfall, potentially reducing damage costs by 80 per cent by the end of the century, or up to $3.1 billion each year (Ness et al. 2021).
Regulating maximum indoor temperatures in rental housing to protect tenants from extreme heat (Lawton 2025). adaptation strategies include:
- Installing indoor cooling devices like heat pumps or air conditioning, and planting green roofs and trees for shade. Our analysis shows these could reduce heat-related deaths and hospitalization 12 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in B.C. by the 2030s (Beugin et al. 2023).
- Providing employers and the public with information on how to stay safe during extreme heat waves.
- Sending early heat warnings to allow people, communities and responders to prepare.
- Designing infrastructure to withstand extreme heat and rainfall, potentially reducing damage costs by 80 per cent by the end of the century, or up to $3.1 billion each year (Ness et al. 2021).
- Regulating maximum indoor temperatures in rental housing to protect tenants from extreme heat (Lawton 2025).

Resources

Reporting Extreme Weather and Climate Change: A Guide for Journalists (Clarke and Otto 2024)
Extreme Heat (World Meteorological Organization, 2026)
Extreme Heat Events Overview (Government of Canada 2024)
Extreme Heat Preparedness Guide (PreparedBC 2024)
Health Impacts of Extreme Heat (Climate Atlas of Canada 2024)

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Cost of Climate Change series. Ryan est également disponible pour des entretiens en français (Eastern Time, English and French).

For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact:

Claudine Brulé
Lead, Communications and External Relations
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525

Krystal Northey
Lead, Public Affairs
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525

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