Churchill Falls deal is massive progress for new clean power and electrifying Canada’s economy

OTTAWA—Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the agreement between Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and the federal government on the future of Churchill Falls and broader investments in clean power and transmission:  

“Today’s announcement from the provinces of Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador and the federal government promises to unlock an enormous amount of new reliable clean power and transmission to the benefit of people and businesses across Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and beyond.

“This is the scale of clean energy ambition that is necessary across the country in order to meet the Prime Minister’s commitment to doubling the size of Canada’s electricity grids and electrifying more of the national economy. It demonstrates that positive outcomes can be achieved through co-operation between governments, including Indigenous communities, that drives investment and leads to more interconnected provincial electricity markets. 

“It also shows the critical role the federal government can play in catalyzing these types of agreements with financial support to accelerate the growth of cleaner, bigger grids that attract large industrial users with low-cost electricity. That aligns with previous research from the Canadian Climate Institute outlining the rationale for the federal government to play a larger role in growing clean power to electrify the economy. The new agreement brings much-needed investment certainty for the Churchill Falls and Gull Island hydroprojects and will spur substantial new onshore wind power projects in Newfoundland and Labrador. It will also improve energy security and affordability in a time of volatile energy price swings while driving down emissions. 

“We’re pleased to see the federal government helping facilitate the development of this deal and look forward to seeing more positive developments in other regions of the country that unlock more affordable clean power. As work on these projects move from agreement-in-principle to design and development, it will also be crucial that Indigenous rights holders are meaningfully included in the decision-making process.”

RESOURCES

MEDIA CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time, French/English)
Lead, Communications and External Relations
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time, English)
Lead, Public Affairs
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca 
(226) 212 9883 

ABOUT US

The Canadian Climate Institute is an independent climate policy research organization that produces rigorous research, analysis, and economic modelling, drawing on experts and leaders across the country. Our work focuses on: accelerating clean growth and low-carbon competitiveness; measuring progress in Canada’s clean energy transition; amplifying Indigenous perspectives and climate solutions; unlocking sustainable investment; and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.

Repealing Canada’s electric vehicle standard and delaying its replacement puts 2035 sales goal at risk

OTTAWA—Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the federal government’s repeal of the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard and delay of the implementation of its strengthened tailpipe emissions standard:  

“The Prime Minister has been clear in his commitment to implementing new vehicle emissions rules that would deliver carbon reductions equivalent to reaching a 75 per cent market share of electric vehicles by 2035 and 90 per cent by 2040. 

“While it is good news that the federal government has reiterated this commitment to stronger emission standards for Canada’s vehicle fleet, it is disappointing that these new rules will be further delayed. Make no mistake: kicking this down the road will mean Canadians are left with fewer electric vehicle options and higher total operating costs for getting around their communities.

Our analysis shows Canada is currently not on track to its EV targets, while others have shown that the government’s current emissions standards proposal will need to be strengthened to meet the Prime Minister’s stated goal of 75 per cent EV share emissions levels. 

“Global data shows EV market share is growing rapidly in markets outside of North America. The International Energy Agency expects sales of EVs to reach nearly 30 per cent by the end of this year. Canada remains significantly behind the global trend.

“The government has now removed one pathway to its EV objectives while delaying the policy intended to replace it. The test is therefore straightforward: the new standards need to be strong enough to deliver the EV deployment the Prime Minister has promised, and they need to be implemented quickly. Otherwise, Canada will fall further behind on the very outcomes the government says it wants to achieve.”

RESOURCES

MEDIA CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
(226) 212-9883
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca

ABOUT US

The Canadian Climate Institute is an independent climate policy research organization that produces rigorous research, analysis, and economic modelling, drawing on experts and leaders across the country. Our work focuses on: accelerating clean growth and low-carbon competitiveness; measuring progress in Canada’s clean energy transition; amplifying Indigenous perspectives and climate solutions; unlocking sustainable investment; and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.

National progress report shows Canada is not prepared for the climate risks ahead

Toronto—Ryan Ness, Director of Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the release of the federal government’s National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) progress report: 

“Ottawa’s update on its National Adaptation Strategy documents a good deal of activity—but little sign that any of it is actually reducing the escalating climate and extreme weather risks that Canadians face.

“This summer’s catastrophic wildfires that have destroyed communities, forced thousands to evacuate, and shrouded cities in toxic smoke are the latest signal that Canada must accelerate climate adaptation.

“The Progress Report highlights important forward movement, including a wide range of federal programs, tools, funding, and co-ordination efforts underway across the country. What’s missing is clear evidence that these initiatives are reducing climate risk in a meaningful way at a national level. By tracking programs rather than results, the progress report paints an overly-optimistic picture of success. 

“On the government’s own evidence, the report shows that Canada is falling behind on climate adaptation on many fronts. Up to 1.5 million households still face flood risk so severe they are effectively uninsurable. Only a third of Canadians have taken steps to prepare for climate risks—short of the strategy’s 50 per cent target for 2025. Indigenous communities remain among the most exposed to climate-driven extreme weather risks, yet Ottawa has not lived up to the strategy’s commitments to support Indigenous-led climate adaptation action. 

“Where the report does indicate progress, significant gaps still remain. Despite reporting that climate resilience is now factored into all federal infrastructure funding—a target it marks ‘100 per cent achieved’—those requirements are inconsistently applied and do not prevent funding being used for development in high risk areas. It points to growing use of climate data and services, but most Canadians still lack clear information about the climate risks they face. And its commitment to co-ordinate adaptation bilaterally with every province and territory has only resulted in discussions with a handful of jurisdictions thus far. 

“The National Adaptation Strategy may be an important foundation—but on its own it has not driven the progress Canadians need. As the Climate Institute’s original assessment of the National Adaptation Strategy urged, what’s required now is a focused set of concrete measures, targeted at the highest climate risks and backed by investment, clear timelines, and accountability to deliver real reduction in risk. Anything less continues to leave Canadians exposed to a climate threat that is growing much faster than our defences.

RESOURCES

CONTACT

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
Lead, Public Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
226 212 9883

About the Canadian Climate Institute 

The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada’s net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.

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New federal fund proposed to finance power grid expansion while keeping prices down

OTTAWA—The Canadian Climate Institute and global clean energy finance expert Michael Liebreich have published a joint Policy Brief proposing the federal government establish a new long-term help fund to ensure Canada can keep electricity rates affordable as it works toward doubling its electricity grid capacity over the decades ahead.

The proposed Powering Canada Forward Fund would address a fundamental barrier to achieving the speed and scale of electricity grid expansion outlined in the National Electricity Strategy: namely, keeping power bills remain affordable for rate payers during a surge of investment in electricity generation, transmission, and storage infrastructure across the country. 

The Institute’s research has found that expanding the supply of clean, affordable, and abundant electricity across Canada is a crucial step toward attracting investment and boosting competitiveness as demand for electricity surges due to the electrification of transport and heating and new industries such as data centres. Doubling Canada’s electricity system is also a critical lever to improving domestic energy security, promoting affordability, and decarbonizing the economy.

But substantially increasing the rate of electrification of the economy requires significant anticipatory investment; if the cost of that investment is immediately levied against existing power users, it could drive up bills to levels that deter the very electrification that is required. The Powering Canada Forward Fund would help keep electricity rates affordable for users by distributing the costs of electricity investments over a longer period of time. Doing so would mean that new electricity infrastructure is paid down progressively as demand grows and helps cover the bill, keeping rates manageable for all users over time. The federally-supported fund would also remove demand growth risk from the provinces, and use the federal balance sheet to limit fiscal costs and keep electricity affordable over time. 

The strategic importance of abundant and affordable clean electricity underpins Canada’s draft National Electricity Strategy as well as provincial efforts to scale up their electricity systems. Around the world too, countries are placing new emphasis on electrification, which is expected to be a major theme at the COP31 Climate Summit in Antalya, Türkiye and in the G20’s agenda for 2027.

While Canada has some existing finance mechanisms to support electricity system investment, such as the Canada Infrastructure Bank and Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit, neither is designed to smooth the price impact of an investment surge. The proposed Powering Canada Forward Fund would complement those tools and bridge the financing gap in two important ways: 

  1. Aligning costs and benefits for ratepayers over time. It would enable rapid deployment of capital up-front to expand and modernize electricity systems now, while deferring the cost of the expansion to a larger base of future ratepayers—those who will stand to benefit from the expanded electricity system once it’s built.
  2. Shifting risks from provinces and ratepayers to the federal government and taxpayers. Federally-underwritten funding would accelerate the grid expansion necessary to attract investment and power economic growth, while buffering provinces and ratepayers from the possibility that the growth of future electricity demand lags expectations. 

Further details on important financial and operational design recommendations for the proposed Powering Canada Forward Fund are outlined in the Policy Brief, which forms part of the Institute’s official submission to the public consultation on the National Electricity Strategy and forthcoming federal budget. 

QUOTES 

“The Canadian government has been crystal clear about its ambitions to double the size of Canada’s electricity systems—but it doesn’t have the full set of financial tools to get the job done. The proposed Powering Canada Forward Fund can help transform today’s aging and underpowered grids to supply the abundant, reliable and affordable clean electricity that will supercharge Canada’s future economic growth.” 

— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute 

“From the UK and Europe to the U.S. and China and Singapore, Canada’s global peers and trading partners are retooling their electricity systems and entire economies for rapidly growing power demand. Our proposal would accelerate Canada’s essential, once-in-a-generation investment in electrification with a mechanism that smooths out the price impacts of investing in the grid. It is a practical, equitable and strategic approach, which will help keep the country’s electricity systems one step ahead of demand growth while limiting price increases and providing enhanced energy security. 

— Michael Liebreich, global energy finance expert and Chairman and CEO, Liebreich Associates

RESOURCES

CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
Lead, Public Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

About the Canadian Climate Institute 

The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada’s net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.

climateinstitute.ca

About Michael Liebreich 

Michael Liebreich is a leading global expert on clean energy and transportation, smart infrastructure, technology, climate finance and sustainable development. He is chairman and CEO of Liebreich Associates and co-managing partner of EcoPragma Capital, chair of PragmaCharge and the founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

FACT SHEET: Climate change and wildfires

Accelerating climate change, largely from the burning of fossil fuels, makes wildfires bigger, hotter, and more destructive (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.). With Canada warming twice as fast as the global average (Government of Canada 2019), and home to more than a quarter of the world’s boreal forests, the country is experiencing this consequence of global heating firsthand.

The last three fire seasons have been among the 10 worst on record. Canada experienced its most destructive wildfire season ever in 2023, with fires consuming 16.5 million hectares—more than double the previous record and nearly seven times more than the historical average (Natural Resources Canada 2024). 

In 2024, the Jasper wildfire in Alberta destroyed one-third of the town’s structures and was among the most expensive natural disasters in Canadian history, with insured damages estimated to be $1.23 billion (Insurance Bureau of Canada, 2025). 2025 was the second worst wildfire season in Canadian history, with over 8.3 million hectares burned, and fires impacting nearly every province and territory (Public Safety Canada, 2025).

Our research finds that to keep Canadians safe from wildfires and other worsening climate hazards, governments must play both defence and offence—protecting people and ecosystems while accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels to limit climate heating (Sawyer et al. 2022).

Climate change makes wildfires worse

  • Fire season is starting earlier, is lasting longer, and is harder to contain (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.; Natural Resources Canada 2022). Zombie fires are even beginning to smoulder through the winter (Shingler 2024).
  • While forest fires are naturally occurring disturbances that contribute to the health and renewal of many forest ecosystems (Canadian Council of Forest Ministers 2019), fires are burning hotter and wilder as the climate warms, causing much greater destruction. 
  • Canadian forests are more susceptible to high-severity fires in a warming climate (Wang et. al 2025). While there is no increase in the overall number of wildfires, the number and size of large and very large fires is increasing, along with the annual area burned (Hanes et. al. 2025).
  • Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada in 2023 (World Weather Attribution 2023). 
  • An overheating climate is making Canadian summers hotter and drier, with more erratic rainfall, including less summer rain in some regions (Bush and Lemmen 2019; Gifford et al. 2022). Wildfires are more likely to spread rapidly, with dry, windy days increasing by up to 50% in western Canada and doubling or tripling in eastern Canada (Wang et. al 2017).
  • Research has shown that climate change is extending ‘burning hours’ by weakening the natural day-night temperature cycle that once slowed wildfires, allowing them to burn more intensely overnight and spread faster (Luo 2026).
  • A warming climate is leading to decreased annual snow cover across Canada’s north in May and June, leading to drier conditions which increase wildfire risk (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2025).
  • Lighting strikes become more frequent as the climate warms (McKabe 2023). Ninety-three per cent of the area burned in Canada in 2023 was from fires ignited by lightning; only 7 per cent by human-ignition (Jain et al. 2024).
  • Elevated wildfire risk from climate change means that, whatever the cause, fires catch, spread, and get out of control much more easily.
  • Fire suppression has increased wildfire risk in parts of the country by allowing fuel to build up in some forested areas, but this is a localized effect.
  • Suppression has historically been minimal across most of Canada’s forests: only about one-fifth of the country’s burned area between 1986 and 2023 occurred within actively managed forests where fire was suppressed  (Beverley 2024). Even as forest management practices have remained largely unchanged, annual area burned and the length of the fire season have continued to increase in a changing climate.

Wildfires are damaging people’s health and wellbeing 

  • The smoke from wildfires can spread thousands of kilometres (NASA Earth Observatory 2015), requiring school closures and causing other disruptions while threatening the health of millions of people (Lin 2023), particularly children, seniors, and people with heart or lung disease. 
  • Hot-burning wildfires release dangerous levels of particulate matter into the air, which is associated with an increased risk of issues like heart disease, cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, and brain cancer (Egyed et al. 2022; Korsiak et al. 2022).
  • Between 2020-2024, increased wildfire smoke was responsible for an annual average of 1,400 deaths in Canada (Romanello et. al 2025). Smoke from Canada’s 2023 wildfires is estimated to have caused more than 80,000 premature deaths globally (Zhang et. al 2025).
  • Heavy smoke takes a significant toll on the Canadian healthcare system. A single week of wildfire smoke in June 2023 was estimated to have cost Ontario over $1.2 billion (Sawyer et al. 2023) in health impacts such as premature deaths, increased hospital visits, and health emergencies.
  • Poor air quality from smoke hits the most vulnerable the hardest (Government of Canada, 2022). The impacts of smoke are even more serious for groups like children, seniors, pregnant people, and those who work outdoors. 
  • Smoke from larger wildfires is exacerbating asthma across parts of Western Canada (Matz et al. 2020), and the aftermath of climate-related fires and floods takes a significant toll on mental health (Belleville et al. 2019). 
  • Wildfires can destroy homes and communities, devastate fragile ecosystems, and threaten economic security. These effects have been linked to post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, and suicidal thoughts (Hayes et al. 2022).

Worsening wildfires are making life more expensive

  • Wildfires can destroy property, homes, and entire communities, driving up insurance costs and making life more expensive (Gerety 2024; Vaillant 2024). 
  • The cost of wildfire protection has risen by about $150 million per decade since the 1970s (Pittis, 2023). These costs now regularly exceed $1 billion per year (Government of Canada, 2026).
  • The 2016 wildfire in Fort McMurray, Alberta, cost an estimated $9 billion in direct and indirect physical, financial, health, and environmental impacts (ICLR 2019). It triggered the largest evacuation in Canadian history, destroying more than 2,400 structures and displacing 85,000 people.
  • Wildfires impact key sectors of the economy, including the forest industry, one of Canada’s largest employers (Lindsay and Pelai 2024). Wildfires can disrupt forestry operations and reduce the amount of timber available, hurting workers and forest-dependent communities in the process. During the 2017 wildfires in British Columbia, 40 forestry companies were temporarily shut down (Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Strategy 2019).
  • The accumulating impacts of global heating, including bigger and more frequent wildfires, are raising the cost of living in Canada from lost jobs, reduced economic activity, and tax hikes to pay for disaster recovery and infrastructure repairs. The additional climate change impacts between 2015 and 2025 alone will cost the average household $700 per year, and will continue to increase moving forward (Sawyer et al. 2022).

Governments can act to protect communities and slow further heating

  • Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.
  • Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased fire risks today.
  • Federal and provincial governments can promote fire resilience by limiting development in areas at high risk of wildfires, strengthening building codes and regulations (for example, building with fire-resistant materials), and improving forest and vegetation management through prescribed burns and other measures to help reduce fuel available to burn near at-risk communities (Bénichou et al. 2021).
  • Forest management also has clear limits. Prescribed burning and mechanical thinning require ongoing maintenance, are too costly and risky to apply across the vast scale of Canada’s forests, and are not designed to stop the extreme, weather driven fires that account for most of the area burned (Parisien et al. 2020). These tools are best suited to targeted applications, such as reducing fuel in forested areas surrounding at-risk communities, rather than as a strategy for preventing large scale wildfires across the entire Canadian landscape.
  • Alberta and British Columbia’s FireSmart programs are examples of initiatives that help communities and individuals reduce their fire risk (FireSmart Alberta 2024; FireSmart B.C. 2024).

Indigenous Peoples are disproportionately impacted, and leading on solutions

  • Indigenous communities in Canada have used controlled fire as traditional land management practice since time immemorial. Supporting these cultural burning practices can help reduce the risk of out-of-control wildfires (BC Wildfire Service 2022). 
  • Eighty per cent of majority-Indigenous communities in Canada are located in fire-prone regions (Asfaw et al. 2019).
  • More than 42 per cent of wildfire evacuations have been from majority-Indigenous communities (Webber and Berger 2023).
  • Between 1980 and 2021 in Canada, 16 communities (Christianson et al. 2024) were evacuated five or more times, and all but two of those were First Nations reserves.

Resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé
Lead, Communications and External Relations (French, English / Eastern Time)
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey
Public Affairs Lead (English / Mountain Time)
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca 
(226) 212-9883

References

Alam, Rafat, Shahidul Islam, Eric Mosely, Sean Thomas, Virginia Dowdell, Dawn Doel. 2019. Rapid Impact Assessment of Fort McMurray Wildfire. Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction and MacEwan University. https://www.iclr.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Rapid-Impact-Assessment-of-Fort-McMurray-Wildfire.pdf

Asfaw, Henok Workeye, Sandy Lake First Nation, Tara K. McGee, and Amy Cardinal Christianson. 2019. “A qualitative study exploring barriers and facilitators of effective service delivery for Indigenous wildfire hazard evacuees during their stay in host communities.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 41, 101300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101300

BC Wildfire Service. 2022. “How cultural burning enhances landscapes and lives.” May 5. https://blog.gov.bc.ca/bcwildfire/how-cultural-burning-enhances-landscapes-and-lives/ 

Bénichou, Noureddine, Masoud Adelzadeh, Jitender Singh, Islam Gomaa, Nour Elsagan, Max Kinateder, Chunyun Ma, Abhishek Gaur, Alex Bwalya, and Mohamed Sultan. 2021. National Guide for Wildland-Urban Interface Fires. National Research Council Canada. https://doi.org/10.4224/40002647

Belleville, Genevieve, Marie-Christine Ouellet, and Charles M. Morin. 2019. “Post-traumatic stress among evacuees from the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfires: exploration of psychological and sleep symptoms three months after the evacuation.” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 16(9), 1604. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16091604

Bush, E., and D. S. Lemmen, editors. 2019. Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/ 

Beverly, Jennifer L. 2024. “Rethinking Fire Risk and Forest Management.” Policy Magazine, September 16. https://www.policymagazine.ca/rethinking-fire-risk-and-forest-management/

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Gerety, Rowan Moore. “How does a tiny mountain town, burned to the ground, come back.” New York Times, March 12. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/12/travel/lytton-fire-canada.html 

Gifford, Robert, Craig Brown, Carrie Baron, Denni Clement, Natalya Melnychuk, Harry Nelson, Luke Sales, and Dave Spittlehouse. 2022. British Columbia Chapter in Canada in a Changing Climate: Regional Perspectives Report. Government of Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/regional-perspectives/chapter/5-0/ 

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Hanes, Chelene C., Piyush Jain, Weiwei Wang, Xianli Wang, Marc-André Parisien, John M. Little, and Mike D. Flannigan. 2025. “Fire Regime Changes in Canada: An Update.” Canadian Journal of Forest Research 55: 1–11. doi:10.1139/cjfr-2025-0209.

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Korsiak, Jill, Lauren Pinault, et al. 2022. “Long-term exposure to wildfires and cancer incidence in Canada: A population-based observational cohort study.” The Lancet, May. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00067-5 

Lin, Elizabeth Ziying. 2023. “Canadian Wildfire Smoke Associated with Increased Asthma Cases in NYC.” Yale School of Public Health, October 5. https://ysph.yale.edu/news-article/canadian-wildfire-smoke-associated-with-increased-asthma-cases-in-nyc/

Lindsay, Kate, and Ricardo Pelai. 2024. “Canada needs to get ready for a future fraught with fire: How can the forest sector respond?” Canadian Climate Institute, January 31. https://climateinstitute.ca/canada-fires-forest-sector/ 

Luo, Kaiwei, Xianli Wang, Dante Castellanos-Acuna, and Mike Flannigan. 2026. “A Weakened Diurnal Weather Constraint Leads to Longer Burning Hours in North America.” Science Advances 12(16): eaed0725. doi:10.1126/sciadv.aed0725.

Matz, Carlyn J., Marika Egyed, Guoliang Xi, Jacinthe Racine, Radenko Pavlovic, Robyn Rittmaster, Sarah B. Henderson, and David M. Stieb. 2020. “Health impact analysis of PM2. 5 from wildfire smoke in Canada (2013–2015, 2017–2018).” Science of The Total Environment, 725, 138506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138506

McKabe, Kirsty. 2023. “How does climate change affect thunderstorms?” Royal Meteorological Society, July 20. https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/how-does-climate-change-affect-thunderstorms 

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NASA Earth Observatory. 2015. “Canadian Wildfires Produce River of Smoke.” June 29. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/86151/canadian-wildfires-produce-river-of-smoke 

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Natural Resources Canada. 2024a. “Canada’s record-breaking wildfires in 2023: A fiery wake-up call.” April 21. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/simply-science/canadas-record-breaking-wildfires-2023-fiery-wake-call/25303 

Natural Resources Canada. 2026. “Fighting and Managing Wildfires in a Changing Climate Program.” Government of Canada. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/forests-forestry/wildland-fires/fighting-managing-wildfires-changing-climate-program.

Owen, Brenna. 2025. “Study estimates 2023 Canadian wildfire smoke caused more than 80,000 deaths globally.” The Canadian Press, September 10. https://www.thecanadianpressnews.ca/environment/study-estimates-2023-canadian-wildfire-smoke-caused-82-000-premature-deaths-globally/article_437ae58b-a1a6-5ac4-b02a-25aa40c1b425.html

Pittis, Don. 2023. “Canadian Forest Fires Are the Latest Costly Climate Disaster That Public Accounts Fail to Capture.” CBC News, May 18. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fires-climate-accounting-column-don-pittis-1.6846066

Public Health Agency of Canada. 2023. “Public Health Risk Profile: Wildfires in Canada, 2023.” July 23. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/emergency-preparedness-response/rapid-risk-assessments-public-health-professionals/risk-profile-wildfires-2023.html 

Public Safety Canada. 2025. “Government of Canada provides update on 2025 wildfires as support continues.” October 30.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safety-canada/news/2025/10/government-of-canada-provides-update-on-2025-wildfires-as-support-continues.html

Romanello, Marina, Maria Walawender, Shih-Che Hsu, Annalyse Moskeland, Yasna Palmeiro-Silva, Daniel Scamman, James W Smallcombe, et al. 2025. “The 2025 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: Climate Change Action Offers a Lifeline.” The Lancet 406(10521): 2804–57. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(25)01919-1.

Sawyer, Dave, Ryan Ness, Caroline Lee, and Sarah Miller. 2022. Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/ damage-control 

Sawyer, Dave, Seton Stiebert, and Colin Welburn. 2023. “With the Forest Ablaze, the Health Costs Hit Home”. Canadian Climate Institute, June 26. https://climateinstitute.ca/with-the-forest-ablaze-the-health-costs-hit-home/

Shingler, Benjamin. 2024. “It’s the middle of winter, and more than 100 wildfires are still smouldering.” CBC, February 21. https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/wildfires-zombie-fires-canada-bc-alberta-1.7119851 

Vaillant, John. 2024. Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast. Vintage Canada. 

Wang, Weiwei, Xianli Wang, Mike D. Flannigan, Luc Guindon, Tom Swystun, Dante Castellanos-Acuna, Wanli Wu, and Guangyu Wang. 2025. “Canadian Forests Are More Conducive to High-Severity Fires in Recent Decades.” Science 387(6729): 91–97. doi:10.1126/science.ado1006.

Wang, Xianli, Marc-André Parisien, Steve W Taylor, Jean-Noël Candau, Diana Stralberg, Ginny A Marshall, John M Little, and Mike D Flannigan. 2017. “Projected Changes in Daily Fire Spread across Canada over the next Century.” Environmental Research Letters 12(2): 025005. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5835.

Webber, Tammy, and Noah Berger. “Canadian wildfires hit Indigenous communities hard, threatening their land and culture.” Associated Press, July 19. https://apnews.com/article/canada-wildfire-indigenous-land-first-nations-impact-3faabbfadfe434d0bd9ecafb8770afce 

World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/ 

Zhang, Qiang, Yuexuanzi Wang, Qingyang Xiao, Guannan Geng, Steven J. Davis, Xiaodong Liu, Jin Yang, et al. 2025. “Long-Range PM2.5 Pollution and Health Impacts from the 2023 Canadian Wildfires.” Nature 645(8081): 672–78. doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09482-1.

FACT SHEET: Climate change and flooding

In August 2024, the remnants of Hurricane Debby brought record-breaking floods to Quebec, inundating 55 communities. Just a month before, nearly 10 centimetres of rain fell in Toronto in three hours, overwhelming the city’s infrastructure and flooding many homes and businesses. In November 2021, an atmospheric river unleashed record-breaking rain in British Columbia, triggering landslides and floods that caused extensive damage, cutting off main access routes to several areas of the province, severely impairing the economy.

As climate change worsens, Canadians will experience a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of these kinds of flood events. Warmer air, caused by increasing concentrations of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, holds more moisture, leading to heavier rainfall and more intense storms. This, combined with melting snow packs, rising sea levels, and changing weather patterns, has created the conditions for more severe and unpredictable flooding. These floods are devastating for communities, economies, and livelihoods.

Climate change is driving increasingly severe and frequent floods

  • Parts of southern British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces have seen an increase of two to three heavy rainfall days per year on average (Vincent et al. 2018; Zhang et al. 2019).
  • Climate models project that by the end of the century, a 1-in-20 year extreme rainfall event in Canada could occur every 5 to 15 years, while the amount of 24-hour extreme precipitation is projected to increase by more than 5% to 12% (Zhang et al. 2019).

Floods can severely damage homes and infrastructure, costing billions of dollars

More frequent and intense floods put people and communities at risk

  • Heavy rainfall events can overwhelm small drinking water treatment systems, degrading water quality and increasing the risk of waterborne disease outbreaks (Wang et al. 2018).  
  • Over half of the waterborne disease outbreaks in the past 50 years in the United States occurred after episodes of extreme rainfall (Charron et al. 2011).
  • Floods can be fatal, as people drown while wading or driving through flood waters or are trapped in flooded buildings (Government of Canada 2021).
  • Injuries are common during and after floods due to swiftly moving heavy objects, damaged electrical wiring and appliances, and the risk of hypothermia from cold floodwater (Government of Canada 2021).
  • The psychosocial impacts of flooding are significant, increasing family conflicts, financial stress, and feelings of isolation. In some cases, flooding can trigger or exacerbate mental health conditions such as depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (Glenn and Myre 2022).
  • A few months after the Quebec floods of 2019, 44 per cent of those affected had moderate to high symptoms of post-traumatic stress, 21 per cent had symptoms of anxiety disorders, and 20 per cent had developed mood disorders (Institut national de santé publique du Québec 2024).
  • Flooded buildings are quickly colonized by mold, fungi, and bacteria, which can cause or aggravate skin, allergy, eye, respiratory, and gastrointestinal problems such as asthma, conjunctivitis, and otitis (Institut national de santé publique du Québec 2024).

Governments can act to protect communities from worsening flood risk

  • Flooding will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere continues to increase. Government action to manage this growing risk and limit further emissions is essential.
  • Because the impacts of climate change on flooding are already here and getting worse from the emissions that have already occurred, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for increased risk of floods today and into the future.
  • Some of the key adaptation actions governments can take to reduce flood risk and protect communities include:
    • Shifting development away from high-risk flood zones: To prevent placing more homes in harm’s way, provincial and municipal governments could restrict building in areas with high flood risk. Research from the Canadian Climate Institute shows that steering development away from high-hazard areas in the next decade can prevent between $340 million and $2 billion per year in new flood losses without limiting housing growth (Ness et. al 2025).  
    • Enhancing flood protection infrastructure at the community level: Investing in new and improved flood protection infrastructure, such as levees, floodwalls, and nature-based solutions, can cost-effectively safeguard communities at risk of flooding (Ness et al. 2021).
    • Support proactive relocation from high-risk areas: In a few areas where flood risk is too high to provide adequate protection, governments should engage with homeowners and communities to consider proactive relocation, offering appropriate assistance and incentives for moving to safer areas (Public Safety Canada 2022).

References and resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
  • Zach Carriere is Research Associate in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Eastern Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time, English, French)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time, English)
Lead, Public Affairs
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca 
(226) 212-9883

References

Bourque, Julien. 2021. “Three things governments need to do to protect homeowners and renters from the insurance industry’s perfect storm.” December 13. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/three-things-governments-need-to-do/ 

Brown, Craig, Ewa Jackson, Deborah Harford, and David Bristow. 2021. “Cities and Towns” Chapter 2. In Canada in a Changing Climate: National Issues Report, F.J. Warren and N. Lulham (Eds). Government of Canada. p. 26

Catastrophic Indices and Quantification Inc.. 2025. “CAD 2.806 B – CatIQ Discloses Updated Industry Loss for the Flooding from the Remnants of Hurricane Debby in August 2024” CatIQ. https://public.catiq.com/2025/08/12/cad-2-806-b-catiq-discloses-updated-industry-loss-for-the-flooding-from-the-remnants-of-hurricane-debby-in-august-2024/

Charron, Dominique F., M. Kathleen Thomas, David Waltner-Toews, Jeffery J. Aramini, Tom Edge, Robert A. Kent, Abdel R. Maarouf, and Jeff Wilson. 2004. “Vulnerability of waterborne diseases to climate change in Canada: A review.” Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A 67(20–22): 1667–1677. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15287390490492313 

Clarke, Ben, and Friederike Otto. 2024. “Reporting extreme weather and climate change: A guide of journalists.” World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/reporting-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-a-guide-for-journalists/ 

Denchak, Melissa. 2023. “Flooding and Climate Change: Everything You Need to Know.” Natural Resources Defense Council, November 3. https://www.nrdc.org/stories/flooding-and-climate-change-everything-you-need-know#facts 

Glenn, Nicole, and Maxine Myre. 2022. “Post-Flooding Community-Level Psychosocial Impacts and Priorities in Canada: A Preliminary Report.” National Collaborating Centre for Environmental Health, November 22. https://ncceh.ca/resources/evidence-reviews/post-flooding-community-level-psychosocial-impacts-and-priorities-canada 

Government of Canada. 2021. “Climate Change and Public Health Factsheets.” Public Health Agency of Canada, February 1. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/health-promotion/environmental-public-health-climate-change/climate-change-public-health-factsheets-floods.html 

Greenan, Blair J. W., Thomas S. James, John W. Loder, Pierre Pepin, Kumiko Azetsu-Scott, Debby Ianson, Roberta C. Hamme, Denis Gilbert, Jean-Éric Tremblay, Xiaolan L. Wang, and Will Perrie. 2019. “Changes in oceans surrounding Canada”; Chapter 7 in E. Bush and D. S. Lemmen (Eds.) Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada. p. 343-423. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/7-0/ 

Honegger, Caspar, and Christoph Oehy. 2016. The road to flood resilience in Canada. Swiss Re. https://www.preventionweb.net/files/49295_theroadtofloodresilienceincanada.pdf 

Institut national de santé publique du Québec. 2024. “Inondations.” Institut national de santé publique du Québec, April 3. https://www.inspq.qc.ca/changements-climatiques/menaces/inondations 

Insurance Bureau of Canada. 2024. “Severe Weather in 2023 Caused Over $3.1 Billion in Insured Damage”. January 8. https://www.ibc.ca/news-insights/news/severe-weather-in-2023-caused-over-3-1-billion-in-insured-damage 

Musselwhite, Beth. 2025. “CatIQ reduces 2024 Ontario flash flooding loss estimate by 9% to CAD 899m” Reinsurance news, July 16. https://www.reinsurancene.ws/catiq-reduces-2024-ontario-flash-flooding-loss-estimate-by-9-to-cad-899m/

Ness, Ryan, Dylan G. Clark, Julien Bourque, Dena Coffman, and Dale Beugin. 2021. Under Water: The Cost of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure. Canadian Climate Institute, September. https://climatechoices.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Infrastructure-English-FINAL-jan17-2022.pdf 

Ness, Ryan, and Camila Florez Bossio. 2024. “High and dry: The rising tide of flood risks and the insurance dilemma.” Canadian Climate Institute. March 18. https://climateinstitute.ca/flood-insurance-risks-canada/ 

Ness, Ryan, Sarah Miller, Camila Flórez Bossio, Ricardo Pelai and Zacharie Carriere. 2025. Close to Home: How to build more housing in a changing climate.  Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/close-to-home/

Pereira, Ana. 2024. “Toronto’s ‘After’ Math: Total Damage from Flash Flood Could Surpass $1 Billion. Here’s How Much Floods Cost Homeowners Every Year.” Toronto Star, July 17. https://www.thestar.com/business/toronto-s-after-math-total-damage-from-flash-flood-could-surpass-1-billion-here-s/article_091766d4-4447-11ef-a1ea-eb24413392a4.html 

Posadzki, Alexandra. 2017. “Majority of Canadian homeowners not insured for flooding: experts.” The Globe and Mail, May 8. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/majority-of-canadian-homeowners-not-insured-for-flooding-experts/article34925679/ 

Public Safety Canada. 2022. Adapting to Rising Flood Risk: An Analysis of Insurance Solutions for Canada. Public Safety Canada, November 10. https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/dptng-rsng-fld-rsk-2022/index-en.aspx#s3.2 

Sandink, Dan. 2015. “Urban Flooding and Ground‐related Homes in Canada: An Overview.” Journal of Flood Risk Management 9(3): 208–23. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12168 

Vasseur, Liette, Mary Thornbush, and Steve Plante. 2017. “Climatic and Environmental Changes Affecting Communities in Atlantic Canada.” Sustainability 9(8): 1293. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/8/1293 

Vincent, L.A. X. Zhang, É. Mekis, H Wan, and E.J. Bush. 2018. “Changes in Canada’s Climate: Trends in Indices Based on Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data.” Atmosphere-Ocean 56(5): 332–49. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07055900.2018.1514579#abstract 

Wang, Yi, Edward McBean, and Bahram Gharabaghi. 2018. “Increased Risks of Waterborne Disease Outbreaks in Northern Ontario Due to Climate Change.” Journal of Water Management Modeling. https://doi.org/10.14796/jwmm.c436  

Westra, Seth., H.J. Fowler, J. P. Evans, L.V. Alexander, P. Berg, F. Johnson, E. J. Kendon, G. Lenderink, and N. M. Roberts. 2014. “Future Changes to the Intensity and Frequency of Short-Duration Extreme Rainfall.” Reviews of Geophysics 52: 522–555. doi:10.1002/2014RG000464. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014RG000464 

World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/ 

Zhang, Xuebin, Greg Flato, Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Lucie Vincent, Hui Wan, Xiaolan L. Wang, Robin Rong, John Fyfe, Guilong Li, and Viatchelsav V. Kharin. 2019. “Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada”. Chapter 4.  in E. Bush, and D. S. Lemmen (Eds.) Canada’s Changing Climate Report. Government of Canada. pp 112-193. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/chapter/4-0/

New Canada-B.C. agreement invests in electricity grid flexibility and reliability

Ottawa—Rick Smith, President of the Canadian Climate Institute, made the following statement in response to the Canada-British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement

“New federal funding for expanding British Columbia’s clean power grid, announced today as part of the Canada-B.C. agreement, will help create a more flexible, reliable supply of electricity, while powering industrial growth and advancing Canada’s clean electricity advantage.  The $3.9 billion federal commitment to support the North Coast Transmission Line will send more affordable, clean electricity to B.C.’s northwest, while laying the foundation for a clean-energy corridor with the Yukon. 

“As the Canadian Climate Institute’s recent research report underscores, the federal government has a critical role to play in supporting the build-out of the electricity grid, while also co-operating with and respecting the jurisdiction of provinces, territories, and Indigenous communities. Our research shows that proactive investment in transmission can make grids more flexible, help investment in both new demand and supply while keeping rates competitive.  

“New federal investment in the Red Chris Mine expansion is a welcome signal that the government is committed to securing Canada’s place in the race for the critical minerals. As global demand surges, securing these key ingredients will support Canada—and the world’s—appetite for a key ingredient in the global energy transition. 

That said, our research finds that public dollars should be used cautiously to catalyze private investment. We look forward to learning more about how federal investment will reduce  emissions at the mine by 70 per cent, and how these critical mineral projects will be advanced in partnership with and in respect for Indigenous rights. 

“Finally, while we await more details on the agreement to establish a new National Carbon Credit Framework, it is promising to see provincial-federal co-ordination on this important initiative.”

RESOURCES

CONTACT

Jaela Bernstien (Eastern Time)
Senior Communications Specialist
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

About the Canadian Climate Institute 

The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada’s net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate.

climateinstitute.ca

FACT SHEET: Climate change and heat waves

Climate change, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, is causing more frequent and intense heat waves (Giguere et. al 2025). These heat waves are threatening the safety, well-being, and prosperity of Canadians—even in cities that have historically had more moderate climates, such as Vancouver, Whitehorse, and Halifax. 

Globally, 2025 was one of the hottest years on record, while the past eleven years have been the eleven warmest on record (World Meteorological Organization 2026). Canada, which is warming faster than anywhere else on earth, is suffering the consequences of the overheating climate (McBean 2024). In 2025 record-shattering spring and summer temperatures spanned New Brunswick, British Columbia, the Yukon, the Northwest Territories, every Prairie province, and Northwestern Ontario, fueling the country’s second-worst wildfire season on record (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2025).

Climate change fuels heat waves

  • Climate change increases the frequency of extreme heat, and makes heat waves hotter, longer, and more widespread (Borenstein 2024; Rantanen 2024; Skinner et. al 2025).
  • Canada is warming twice as fast as the global average, and Canada’s Arctic is warming nearly four times as fast (Government of Canada 2019; Rantanen et al. 2022). 
  • Climate projections show that by the second half of this century, many Canadian cities will see two to four times as many +30°C days per year on average compared to historical data (Climate Atlas of Canada n.d.).
  • Climate change is increasingly stalling weather patterns and making long-lasting “heat domes” nearly three times more common today than in the 1950s (Li et. al 2025). A heat dome occurs when a persistent high-pressure weather system traps hot air over a region like a lid. This phenomenon triggered the deadly 2021 British Columbia heat wave.
  • In 2025, Canada experienced 12 extreme heat events, each made 2 to 10 times more likely due to climate change (Tamminga 2025).

Climate-fuelled heat makes wildfires worse  

  • During Canada’s worst wildfire season on record, in 2023, climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions (high temperatures, low humidity, and drought conditions) in Eastern Canada, and made Québec’s season 50 per cent more intense (World Weather Attribution 2023). 
  • Heat waves make it easier for wildfires to start and spread by increasing the likelihood of lightning strikes, the primary cause of wildfires (Pérez-Invernón et al. 2023). They also dry out vegetation, making it more flammable (Natural Resources Canada 2024).
  • During the 2021 heat wave in B.C., the number of active wildfires rose from six to 175, consuming nearly 79,000 hectares, including the entire town of Lytton (White et al. 2023).
  • For more information on climate change and wildfires, see our wildfires fact sheet.

Climate-fuelled extreme heat is causing rising death rates and health issues across Canada

  • Climate change has already expanded the reach of extreme heat. More than one third of the global population now lives in areas where heat severely limits safe physical activity (Parsons et. al 2026). In North America, extreme heat stress – the threshold where urgent action is needed to avoid severe health impacts – has doubled in frequency since the 1970s (Emerton et. al 2026). 
  • A study in Nature found that between 1981 and 2018, 37 per cent of heat-related deaths globally were attributable to climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021). This increased mortality is evident on every continent. 
  • Health risks from extreme heat include cardiovascular events, respiratory conditions, kidney disease, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and mental health impacts such as increased anxiety, depression, and aggressive behavior (Bell et. al 2024; Kwak et. al 2026; Neven & Quispel 2025).
  • Prolonged high temperatures are linked to long-term health consequences. Repeated exposure to heat waves causes physical stress which speeds up the aging process, at a rate comparable to smoking (Chen et. al 2025; Kreier 2025).
  • Climate change is worsening the frequency and intensity of extreme humid heat events, which increase the risk of heat illness, hospitalization, and death (Trudeau et. al 2026). High humidity prevents sweat from evaporating, which makes it harder for the body to cool itself down. 
  • Elevated death rates have been documented during and following heat waves in Canada (Government of Canada 2024). The 2021 heat wave caused an estimated 619 heat-related deaths, making it the deadliest disaster in B.C.’s recorded history (BC Coroners Service 2022). 
  • Our research shows that without action on adaptation and health system preparation, B.C. could average 2,200 heat-related deaths per year by 2050 (Beugin et al. 2023).
  • Scientists found that the 2021 B.C. heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change (Philip et al. 2022).
  • A 2024 study concluded that elevated summer temperatures in Québec are linked to 470 deaths, 225 hospitalizations, 36,000 emergency room visits, 7,200 ambulance transports, and 15,000 calls to Info-Santé every year (Boudreault et al. 2024). With climate change, the number of heat-related illnesses and deaths could double in the province by 2050 (Boudreault et al. 2025). 

The economic burden of climate-fuelled extreme heat is growing

  • The Canadian Climate Institute’s 2021 report The Health Costs of Climate Change projected that the costs of heat-related deaths and reduced quality of life from extreme heat in Canada would reach $3 billion per year by mid-century (Clark et al. 2021). 
  • Our analysis shows that the 2021 heat wave in B.C. caused $12 million in additional healthcare costs, and that the societal costs from premature deaths were $5.5 billion (Beugin et al., 2023).
  • Canada’s manufacturing sector alone could see annual losses of $1-2 billion by 2050, due to the productivity impacts of heat waves on the workforce (Clark et al. 2021).
  • Without adaptation, climate change-related damage from heat and rainfall will cost an additional $9.8 billion per year on average for roads, bridges, tunnels, and public transit between 2025 and 2100, according to our 2026 report Prepare or Repair: How climate-proofing public infrastructure pays off (Ness et. al 2026).  Climate-related damage to electricity infrastructure, driven primarily by heat, could increase by $1.8 billion (Ness et al., 2021).

Governments can act to protect communities and slow further warming

  • Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022).
  • Governments must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming, while adapting and preparing for the health and safety risks from extreme heat.
  • Adaptation strategies can improve outcomes for the most vulnerable populations, including the elderly, children, people with chronic illness, and socioeconomically disadvantaged groups (Health Canada 2011). 
  • Effective adaptation strategies include:
  • Installing indoor cooling devices like heat pumps or air conditioning, and planting green roofs and trees for shade. Our analysis shows these could reduce heat-related deaths and hospitalization 12 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in B.C. by the 2030s (Beugin et al. 2023). 
  • Providing employers and the public with information on how to stay safe during extreme heat waves.
  • Sending early heat warnings to allow people, communities and responders to prepare.
  • Designing infrastructure to withstand extreme heat and rainfall, potentially reducing damage costs by 80 per cent by the end of the century, or up to $3.1 billion each year (Ness et al. 2021).
  • Regulating maximum indoor temperatures in rental housing to protect tenants from extreme heat (Lawton 2025). adaptation strategies include:
    • Installing indoor cooling devices like heat pumps or air conditioning, and planting green roofs and trees for shade. Our analysis shows these could reduce heat-related deaths and hospitalization 12 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in B.C. by the 2030s (Beugin et al. 2023). 
    • Providing employers and the public with information on how to stay safe during extreme heat waves.
    • Sending early heat warnings to allow people, communities and responders to prepare.
    • Designing infrastructure to withstand extreme heat and rainfall, potentially reducing damage costs by 80 per cent by the end of the century, or up to $3.1 billion each year (Ness et al. 2021).
    • Regulating maximum indoor temperatures in rental housing to protect tenants from extreme heat (Lawton 2025).

Resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Cost of Climate Change series. Ryan est également disponible pour des entretiens en français (Eastern Time, English and French).

For more information or to arrange an interview, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé
Lead, Communications and External Relations
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525 

Krystal Northey
Lead, Public Affairs
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca
(514) 358-8525

References

BC Coroners Service. 2022. Extreme Heat and Human Mortality: A Review of Heat-Related Deaths in B.C. in Summer 2021. June 7. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/birth-adoption-death-marriage-and-divorce/deaths/coroners-service/death-review-panel/extreme_heat_death_review_panel_report.pdf  

Bell, Michelle L., Antonio Gasparrini, and Georges C. Benjamin. 2024. “Climate Change, Extreme Heat, and Health” eds. Caren G. Solomon and Renee N. Salas. New England Journal of Medicine 390(19): 1793–1801. doi:10.1056/NEJMra2210769.

Beugin, Dale, Dylan Clark, Sarah Miller, Ryan Ness, Ricardo Pelai, and Janna Wale. 2023. The case for adapting to extreme heat: Costs of the 2021 B.C. heat wave. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/extreme-heat-in-canada/ 

Borenstein, Seth. 2024. “Study says since 1979 climate change has made heat waves last longer, spike hotter, hurt more people.” Associated Press, March 29. https://apnews.com/article/heat-wave-climate-change-worsen-hotter-797aae046df8165f5f8be7d3f40a8b74   

Boudreault, Jérémie, Éric Lavigne, Céline Campagna, and Fateh Chebana. 2024. “Estimating the heat-related mortality and morbidity burden in the province of Quebec, Canada.” Environmental Research, September 14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2024.119347 

Boudreault, Jérémie, Céline Campagna, Éric Lavigne, and Fateh Chebana. 2025. “Projecting the Overall Heat-Related Health Burden and Associated Economic Costs in a Climate Change Context in Quebec, Canada.” Science of The Total Environment 958: 178022. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178022.

Bratu, Andreea, Kiffer G. Card, Kalysha Closson, Niloufar Aran, Carly Marshall, Susan Clayton, Maya K. Gislason, Hasina Samji, Gina Martin, Melissa Lem, Carmen H. Logie, Tim K. Takaro, and Robert S. Hogg. 2022. “The 2021 Western North American heat dome increased climate change anxiety among British Columbians: Results from a natural experiment.” The Journal of Climate Change and Health, May. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667278222000050 

Canadian Press. 2026. “Scorching Weather Results in 21 B.C. Communities Breaking Maximum Temperature Records.” CBC News, June 24. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-heat-weather-records-fall-9.7247997 (accessed June 30, 2026).

Chen, Siyi, Yufei Liu, Yuanyuan Yi, Yiling Zheng, Jun Yang, Tiantian Li, Ta-Chien Chan, et al. 2025. “Long-Term Impacts of Heatwaves on Accelerated Ageing.” Nature Climate Change 15(9): 1000–1007. doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02407-w.

Clark, Dylan, Ryan Ness, Dena Coffman, and Dale Beugin. 2021. The Health Costs of Climate Change: How Canada Can Adapt, Prepare, and Save Lives. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/the-health-costs-of-climate-change/ 

Clarke, Ben, and Friederike Otto. 2024. “Reporting extreme weather and climate change: A guide of journalists.” World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/reporting-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-a-guide-for-journalists/ 

Climate Atlas of Canada. (n.d.) Urban Heat Island Effect. Prairie Climate Centre. https://climateatlas.ca/urban-heat-island-effect 

Climate Atlas of Canada. 2024. “Heath impacts of extreme heat.” https://climateatlas.ca/health-impacts-extreme-heat 

Communicating the Health Risks of Extreme Heat Events: Toolkit for Public Health and Emergency Management Officials. 2011. Ottawa, Ontario: Health Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/environmental-workplace-health/reports-publications/climate-change-health/communicating-health-risks-extreme-heat-events-toolkit-public-health-emergency-management-officials-health-canada-2011.html

Emerton, Rebecca, Julien Nicolas, Anna Lombardi, and Claudia Di Napoli. 2026. “Global Heat Stress Intensification and Its Expanding Footprint on the Human Population.” Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02670-5.

Environment and Climate Change Canada. 2025. “Canada’s Top 10 Weather Stories of 2025.” Government of Canada, December 18. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/top-ten-weather-stories/2025.html.

Giguere, Otto, Tannenbaum, Vahlberg, et al. (2025). Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks. Climate Central, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, World Weather Attribution. https://www.climatecentral.org/report/climate-change-and-the-escalation-of-global-extreme-heat-2025 

Government of Canada. 2019. “Canada’s climate is warming twice as fast as global average.” Press release. April 2.  https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2019/04/canadas-climate-is-warming-twice-as-fast-as-global-average.html 

Government of Canada. 2024. “Extreme heat events: Overview.” May 7. https://www.canada.ca/en/health-canada/services/climate-change-health/extreme-heat.html 

Henderson, Sarah B., Kathleen E. McLean, Michael J. Lee, and Tom Kosatsky. 2021. “Extreme heat events are public health emergencies.” BC Medical Journal, November. 

International Labour Organization. 2024. Ensuring safety and health at work in a changing climate. April 22. https://www.ilo.org/publications/ensuring-safety-and-health-work-changing-climate 

IPCC, 2022. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press. https://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844   

Kirchmeier-Young, Megan, N. P. Gillett, F. W. Zwiers, A. J. Cannon, and F. S. Anslow. 2019. “Attribution of the influence of human-induced climate change on an extreme fire season.” Earth’s Future, January. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001050 

Kreier, Freda. 2025. “Repeated Heat Waves Can Age You as Much as Smoking or Drinking.” Scientific American, August 26. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/repeated-heat-waves-can-age-you-as-much-as-smoking-or-drinking/ 

Kwak, Aneta, Dale Pendleton, and Chien-Ching Li. 2026. “Mental Health Impacts of Extreme Heat Exposure in the United States: Results from a State-Level Analysis.” Journal of Psychiatric Research 193: 447–50. doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2025.12.015.

Lawton, Betsy. 2025. “Home Cooling Policies Can Combat Health Impacts of Extreme Heat, But Should Be Paired with Strategies to Reduce Unintended Consequences.” https://www.networkforphl.org/news-insights/home-cooling-policies-can-combat-health-impacts-of-extreme-heat-but-should-be-paired-with-strategies-to-reduce-unintended-consequences/.

MacKinnon, Bobbi-Jean. 2025. “New Brunswick Heat Wave Breaks Long-Standing Records.” CBC News, August 12. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/heat-new-brunswick-record-temperatures-1.7606725 (accessed June 30, 2026). 

McBean, Gordon. 2024. “2023 was the hottest year in history — and Canada is warming faster than anywhere else on earth.” The Conversation, January 11. https://theconversation.com/2023-was-the-hottest-year-in-history-and-canada-is-warming-faster-than-anywhere-else-on-earth-220997 

Natural Resources Canada. 2024a. “Canada’s record-breaking wildfires in 2023: A fiery wake-up call.” May 21. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/simply-science/canadas-record-breaking-wildfires-2023-fiery-wake-call/25303 

Ness, Ryan, Dylan G. Clark, Julien Bourque, Dena Coffman, and Dale Beugin. 2021. Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/under-water/ 

Ness, Ryan, Zacharie Carriere and Viviane Gauer. 2026. Prepare or Repair:  How climate-proofing public infrastructure pays off. Canadian Climate Institute.  https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/prepare-or-repair-canada-infrastructure/

Neven, J.C.G., and C. Quispel. 2026. “Extreme Heat and Pregnancy – A Growing Public Health Concern.” Case Reports in Women’s Health 49: e00762. doi:10.1016/j.crwh.2025.e00762.

Parisien, Marc-André, Quinn E. Barber, Mathieu L. Bourbonnais, Lori D. Daniels, Mike D. Flannigan, Robert W. Gray, Kira M. Hoffman, Piyush Jain, Scott L. Stephens, Steve W. Taylor, and Ellen Whitman. 2023. “Abrupt, climate-induced increase in wildfires in British Columbia since the mid-2000s.” Communications Earth & Environment, September 5. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00977-1 

Parsons, L A, J W Baldwin, G Guzman-Echavarria, O Jay, P Kalmus, H Staudmyer, J K Vanos, and N H Wolff. 2026. “Intensifying Global Heat Threatens Livability for Younger and Older Adults.” Environmental Research: Health 4(1): 015013. doi:10.1088/2752-5309/ae3c3a.

Pérez-Invernón, F.J., F.J. Gordillo-Vázquez, H.  Huntrieser,  et al. “Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change.” Nature Communications  14, 739 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5

Philip, Sjoukje Y., Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, et al. 2022. “Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021.” Earth System Dynamics, December 8. https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/13/1689/2022/  

PreparedBC. 2024. “Extreme heat preparedness guide.” Government of British Columbia. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/public-safety-and-emergency-services/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/embc/preparedbc/preparedbc-guides/preparedbc_extreme_heat_guide.pdf 

Rantanen, Mika, Alexey Yu. Karpechko, Antti Lipponen, et al. 2022. “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979.” Commun Earth Environ 3, 168. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3 

Rantanen, Mika, Matti Kämäräinen, Miska Luoto, and Juha Aalto. 2024. “Manifold Increase in the Spatial Extent of Heatwaves in the Terrestrial Arctic.” Communications Earth & Environment 5(1): 570. doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01750-8.

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Tamminga, Aaron. 2025. “Rapid Extreme Weather Attribution System: Top Heat Events of Summer 2025.” ClimateData.ca, December 30. https://climatedata.ca/news/rapid-extreme-weather-attribution-system-top-heat-events-of-summer-2025/.

Trudeau, Kaitlyn, Daniel M Gilford, Kristina Dahl, Lukasz Tracewski, and Brandon Bourassa. 2026. “Multi-Method Rapid Attribution Shows Climate Change Is Worsening Humid Heat.” Environmental Research Letters 21(9): 094020. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae5315.

Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., N. Scovronick, F. Sera, et al. 2021. “The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change.” Nature Climate Change, May 31. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x 

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World Meteorological Organization. 2026. “WMO Confirms 2025 Was One of Warmest Years on Record.” January 13. https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2025-was-one-of-warmest-years-record.

World Weather Attribution. 2023. “Climate change more than doubled the likelihood of extreme fire weather conditions in Eastern Canada.” August 22. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/ 

FACT SHEET: Climate change and drought

A drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that lasts long enough to cause serious water shortages for natural ecosystems, agriculture, and people. Climate change is projected to increase the risk and severity of drought across much of central Canada (Bonsal et. al 2024). In 2025, drought conditions were felt nation-wide, fueling Canada’s second worst wildfire season (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2025). By September 2025, about 85% of the country was abnormally dry or in drought conditions, with parts of the Maritimes experiencing their driest summer on record.

Climate change is making droughts more frequent and severe

Climate change worsens conditions in Canadian drought-prone regions and beyond

  • The southern Prairies and the interior of British Columbia are especially susceptible to drought and have seen several prolonged droughts in the past century. With climate change, areas that are currently dry are projected to become even drier (Bonsal et. al 2024).
  • Drought-affected areas are projected to steadily increase in Canada throughout this century, including under moderate emissions scenarios (Soltani et. al 2024). The Prairie provinces, southern Northwest Territories, portions of interior British Columbia, and most of Ontario are likely to face the greatest increases in frequency and severity of drought (Bonsal et. al 2024).
  • Even under the lowest emission scenario, the current 1-in-10-year drought in the southern Prairies is projected to increase to around 2–3 occurrences every 10 years (Bonsal et. al 2024).
  • Snow drought’ in key areas of western and southern Canada can have broad ripple effects. Significant snow losses in the North American Cordillera—the headwaters of major western Canadian rivers—put water supplies at risk for 86% of Canadians living in the affected basins (Sarpong et. al 2026).

Droughts are costly disasters

  • Droughts were an important factor in the recent dramatic increase in crop insurance payments in Canada, which surged from $890 million in 2018 to $4.9 billion in 2022 (Arnason 2024). 
  • Drought insurance payouts to Alberta’s farmers and agri-businesses reached a record $326.5 million in 2023, more than tripling the payouts from the 2021 drought, according to the Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (Smith 2024).
  • Due to severe drought, crop production in Saskatchewan fell by a record 47 per cent in 2021. That year, Saskatchewan was the only province to see its economy contract (-0.3 per cent). Statistics Canada reported that while “activity was up in most sectors of the economy, those gains were entirely negated by the worst drought in nearly two decades” (Statistics Canada 2022).
  • In the Abitibi region of Québec, hay producers received a record $6.8 million in compensation for the 2023 drought, more than triple the annual average (Cameron 2024).
  • Droughts limit hydroelectricity generation, cutting revenue for utilities, and making electricity more expensive for consumers (CBC News 2023).
  • In January 2024, drought conditions in both B.C. and Manitoba meant lower reservoir levels at hydroelectric facilities, forcing the two provinces to import power from other jurisdictions (Canadian Press 2024). In 2025, severe drought drove Manitoba Hydro’s operating costs $684 million over budget (Macintosh 2025).
  • Persistently low reservoir levels forced Hydro-Québec to cut its exports by more than half between 2022 and 2024. Together with less favourable market conditions, this drove an $866 million drop in revenue for the utility in 2024 alone (Hydro-Québec 2025).

Droughts threaten the health of Canadians

  • Droughts can degrade drinking water quality and increase the risk of water-borne diseases, as sluggish flows and more evaporation concentrate contaminants in water bodies and promote toxic algal blooms (Yusa et al. 2015).
  • Droughts can contribute to respiratory issues (Yusa et al. 2015) due to windblown dust from dried-out soils, exacerbating conditions such as asthma. 
  • Droughts can increase the likelihood of infection among recreational water users at times when warm weather drives engagement in water activities (Yusa et al. 2015).
  • Drought is associated with mental health issues, such as anxiety, depression, and increased risk of suicide, especially for farmers, who can experience financial and emotional stress during droughts (Ellis and Albrecht 2017).

Droughts worsen the risk of floods, wildfires and ecosystem damage

  • Droughts fuel wildfires by drying out vegetation and soils, creating highly flammable conditions. Prolonged water stress weakens trees and plants, causing them to shed leaves and needles, lose moisture, and eventually die, adding to the amount of available fuel. At the same time, hot, dry conditions lower humidity and increase the likelihood that sparks from lightning, equipment, or human activity will ignite a fire. Once fires start, low moisture allows them to spread quickly and burn more intensely, increasing the risk to communities, ecosystems, and critical infrastructure. 
  • Widespread drought conditions were a major driver of the 2025 wildfire season, which saw significant blazes in almost every province and territory and was Canada’s second-worst on record (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2025). A study in Manitoba found that low rainfall and snowpack left soil among the driest on record in early 2025, fueling the province’s rapidly spreading wildfires (Amiri et al. 2025). 
  • In 2023, prolonged multi-year drought in western Canada, and a rapidly occurring ‘flash drought’ in Ontario and Quebec were key drivers of the worst wildfire season in Canadian history (Jain et. al 2024). 
  • Drought conditions drive overnight burning, a key factor that helps small fires grow into large, active blazes (Luo et. al 2024). 
  • Drought can increase the risk of flooding. Dry conditions hurt soil quality and kill off vegetation, making soil less able to absorb water. If heavy rainfall follows a drought, water can run off more easily, which increases the risk of flooding (Bonsal et al. 2019).  
  • Droughts in northwest British Columbia, particularly during July and August when salmon are migrating to their upstream spawning areas, can cause severe and lasting damage to their populations, to ecosystems, and to the Indigenous Peoples that rely on them (Curran and Marsden 2021).

Governments can do a lot to protect Canadians from the worsening risk of droughts

Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.

Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for the increased risk of drought today. Specific measures governments can take include:

  • Plan proactively: All orders of government can prepare for shortages by developing and implementing proactive drought response plans, such as Alberta’s comprehensive Drought Response Plan. These plans include clear strategies for managing water resources, coordinating across sectors, and protecting vulnerable communities (Government of Alberta 2024).
  • Conserve water: Water conservation can reduce the adverse impacts of droughts when supplies are low. In the short term, this can include voluntary or mandatory restrictions on water use during dry periods. Over the longer term, governments can implement policies to prevent waste, such as universal water metering and conservation-oriented pricing, reducing losses from leaks in aging distribution systems, and efficiency standards for fixtures and appliances. 
  • Protect water quality:  Increased water quality monitoring during droughts helps safeguard drinking water and protect recreational water users from adverse health effects, such as parasites and toxins (Yusa et al. 2015).
  • Strengthen agricultural resilience: Governments can increase drought resilience by improving early warning systems, such as the Canadian Drought Monitor (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada 2024), supporting investment in irrigation and water storage, and incentivizing the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties. 
  • Support farming communities: Strong crop insurance, disaster relief programs, and mental health supports are vital for farming families and agricultural communities coping with financial and emotional stress during droughts (Bonsal et al. 2011; Hart et al. 2011). 
  • Invest in climate research and drought management for hydroelectricity: The sector can better anticipate and manage drought by investing in climate modeling and real-time monitoring (Ouranos n.d.). BC Hydro has funded research and development to improve its forecasting and hydroclimate monitoring capabilities (BC Hydro 2022). They pair these tools with multi-year reservoir storage and an integrated provincial grid to proactively conserve water and adapt operations (Stocks 2025).

Resources

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

  • Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
  • Zach Carriere is Research Associate in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Eastern Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883  (Eastern Time, French & English)

Krystal Northey 
Lead, Public Affairs 
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883 (Mountain Time, English)

References 

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Amiri, Afshin, Silvio Gumiere, and Hossein Bonakdari. 2025. “A Lens on Fire Risk Drivers: The Role of Climate and Vegetation Index Anomalies in the May 2025 Manitoba Wildfires.” Earth 6(3): 88. doi:10.3390/earth6030088.

Arnason, Robert. 2024. “Crop Insurance Costs Explode.” The Western Producer, February 29. https://www.producer.com/news/crop-insurance-costs-explode/  

BC Hydro. 2022. Casting Drought: How Climate Change Is Contributing to Uncertain Weather and How BC Hydro’s Generation System Is Adapting. Vancouver: BC Hydro. https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/documents/news-and-features/bchydro-report-casting-drought.pdf

Bonsal, Barrie, Rajesh R. Shrestha, Yonas Dibike, et al. 2020.“Western Canadian Freshwater Availability: Current and Future Vulnerabilities.” Environmental Reviews 28, no. 4 : 528–45. https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2020-0040

Bonsal, Barrie, Benita Tam, Xuebin Zhang, Guilong Li, Lisa Philps, and Robin Rong. 2024. “Do Meteorological, Agricultural, and Hydrological Indicators All Point to an Increased Frequency and Intensity of Droughts Across Canada Under a Changing Climate?” Atmosphere-Ocean 62(5): 372–90. doi:10.1080/07055900.2025.2453678.

Cameron, Daphné. 2024. “Compensations pour Pertes Agricoles: Un Milliard pour les Agriculteurs après une Année Désastreuse.” La Presse, March 21. https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/2024-03-21/compensations-pour-pertes-agricoles/un-milliard-pour-les-agriculteurs-apres-une-annee-desastreuse.php.  

Canadian Press. 2024. “Drought in Western Canada Impacting Hydropower Production as Reservoirs Run Low.” Business in Vancouver, January 29. https://www.biv.com/news/resources-agriculture/drought-western-canada-impacting-hydropower-production-reservoirs-run-low-8295183  

Caretta, M.A., A. Mukherji, M. Arfanuzzaman, R.A. Betts, A. Gelfan, Y. Hirabayashi, T.K. Lissner, J. Liu, E. Lopez Gunn, R. Morgan, S. Mwanga, and S. Supratid, 2022. Water. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 551–712, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.006.

CBC News. 2023. “Drought is causing B.C. utilities to import more power — and that will affect your bills in 2024.” December 21. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-electric-rate-changes-as-province-imports-power-1.7065802

Chiang, Felicia, Omid Mazdiyasni, and Amir AghaKouchak. 2021. “Evidence of Anthropogenic Impacts on Global Drought Frequency, Duration, and Intensity.” Nature Communications 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w

Cook, Benjamin I., Justin S. Mankin, Kate Marvel, A. Park Williams, Jason E. Smerdon, and Kevin J. Anchukaitis. 2020.  “Twenty-First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios”. Earth Future 8 (6)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001461 

Curran, Deborah, and Tara Marsden. 2021. Ayookxw responding to climate change. Canadian Climate Institute. June 21. https://climateinstitute.ca/publications/ayookxw-responding-to-climate-change/ 

Ellis, Neville R., and Glenn A. Albrecht. 2017. “Climate change threats to family farmers’ sense of place and mental well-being: A case study from the Western Australian Wheatbelt”. Social Science and Medicine 175, 161-168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.01.009 

Environment and Climate Change Canada. 2025. “Canada’s Top 10 Weather Stories of 2025.” Government of Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/top-ten-weather-stories/2025.html#toc2

Government of Alberta. 2024. Alberta Drought Response Plan. Environment and Protected Areas. August 14. https://www.alberta.ca/system/files/epa-alberta-drought-response-plan.pdf 

Hart, Craig R., Helen L. Berry, and Anne M. Tonna. 2011. “Improving the mental health of rural New South Wales communities facing drought and other adversities”. The Australian Journal of Rural Health 19 (5). https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1440-1584.2011.01225.x

Hydro-Québec. 2025. Une transition ambitieuse: Rapport Annuel 2024. https://www.hydroquebec.com/a-propos/publications-rapports/rapport-annuel.html 

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2023. Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Natural Resources Canada. 2024. “Drought.” Natural Resources Canada, April 12.https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/drought.

Nazeri Tahroudi, Mohammad. 2025. “Comprehensive Global Assessment of Precipitation Trend and Pattern Variability Considering Their Distribution Dynamics.” Scientific Reports 15(1): 22458. doi:10.1038/s41598-025-06050-5.

Ouranos. n.d. “Risk of Persistent Drought on Hydroelectric Reservoirs in Quebec and Labrador: A Millennial Perspective.” Ouranos. Accessed June 15, 2026. https://www.ouranos.ca/en/projects-publications/risk-persistent-drought-hydroelectric-reservoirs-quebec-labrador-millennial

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Sarpong, Robert, Ali Nazemi, and Amir AghaKouchak. 2026. “Creeping Snow Drought Threatens Canada’s Water Supply.” Communications Earth & Environment 7(1): 143. doi:10.1038/s43247-025-03162-8.

Smith, Madeline. 2024. “Farmers, Ranchers Worry About Coming Season Amid Drought, High Pasture Insurance Payouts.” CBC, February 26. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-farmer-rancher-drought-insurance-1.7124671.  

Soltani, Keyvan, Afshin Amiri, Isa Ebtehaj, Hanieh Cheshmehghasabani, Sina Fazeli, Silvio José Gumiere, and Hossein Bonakdari. 2024. “Advanced Forecasting of Drought Zones in Canada Using Deep Learning and CMIP6 Projections.” Climate 12(8): 119. doi:10.3390/cli12080119.

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Canada must build clean power faster to compete in global race for investment: report

VANCOUVER—A new report finds that clean power could be Canada’s competitive edge in the global race to attract investment in major projects, but only if the country transforms how it plans and builds its electricity systems.

The report from the Canadian Climate Institute, Power Play: How to supercharge Canada’s clean electricity advantage, finds that the country has vast potential for new low-cost clean electricity, but most provinces are not planning to build enough new supply or transmission to meet rapidly increasing demand from large industrial projects.

Wind, solar, and batteries are now among the fastest and cheapest ways to meet new electricity demand. Yet Canada largely lags its international peers in deploying these technologies at scale, held back by outdated market rules and planning frameworks that weren’t designed for the clean energy transition that is rapidly remaking electricity markets around the world. 

Without changes to federal policy, the country’s goal of doubling the size of its electricity grids—a central aim of the new national electricity strategy—is also at risk. 

ABOUT THIS RESEARCH

The Institute’s report examines the four largest provincial electricity systems—Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, and B.C.—which together account for more than 75 per cent of Canadian industrial electricity demand, and compares them with leading jurisdictions around the world. 

The analysis focuses on how Canada can grow its supply of clean electricity quickly and reliably to deliver low-cost power that unlocks global investment in large industrial projects such as mines, data centres, and manufacturing facilities consuming that power. Researchers examined how each jurisdiction approaches energy planning, grid flexibility, transmission, procurement, industrial rate design, and climate policy certainty, with an eye to increasing Canada’s competitiveness in the race for global investments. 

The report finds that current rules and incentives driving provincial electricity planning were designed for yesterday’s electricity technologies and are too cautious to build clean power at the pace and scale needed to meet rising industrial demand. Canada also lacks the federal frameworks and funding needed to support interregional transmission lines that can increase grid flexibility and avoid wasting power from solar and wind facilities already in operation. 

In addition, the research shows that Indigenous governments are critical partners in Canada’s electricity expansion—as rights-holders, major asset owners, and project proponents—and already hold equity in a substantial share of Canada’s electricity projects.  

RECOMMENDATIONS

While electricity planning largely falls within provincial jurisdiction, the report’s recommendations focus on federal action, given the national economic implications in the race to attract investment, the need for interprovincial co-ordination, and the recent call for input on Canada’s national electricity strategy. 

The report recommends the federal government: 

  • Support interprovincial electricity planning and co-ordination through a new shared framework in the near term and, later, new intergovernmental institution(s); 
  • Selectively fund and finance grid build-out for industrial projects by building on tools like the Canada Infrastructure Bank; 
  • Move forward with amended Clean Electricity Regulations to anchor long-term policy certainty for clean electricity investors, with a limited role for existing gas-fired power to meet peak demand alongside other forms of flexibility such as batteries and interties; and 
  • Prioritize grid flexibility by funding programs that incentivize industrial demand management and on-site investments in battery storage through the Clean Technology Investment Tax Credits.

The Canadian Climate Institute will publish two additional companion reports later this year that focus on recommendations for provincial governments and utilities. 

QUOTES 

“Canada has a critical opportunity to power a new era of economic growth with cheap and reliable clean electricity—but only if governments act now. The countries winning the race for investment are rapidly expanding their grids with clean, flexible power. This report shows how Canada can compete by leveraging its clean electricity advantage to secure nation-building growth in an era of global instability and trade disruption.”

— Rick Smith, President, Canadian Climate Institute

“Access to reliable, affordable clean power has been a Canadian economic advantage, but it requires action to maintain. Our analysis found that the rules and incentives governing Canada’s electricity systems are geared for yesterday’s power technologies and demand forecasts, and are holding back investments in the country’s grids and industrial sectors. The good news is that the solutions are within reach, and the federal government has the policy levers needed to help provinces put them to work.”

— Kate Harland, Research Director, Clean Growth, Canadian Climate Institute

“This new report from the Canadian Climate Institute underscores the importance of providing long-term policy certainty to attract investment in Canada’s electricity system. Wind, solar, and energy storage are affordable, modular, scalable, fast-to-deploy technologies that can create jobs and help meet growing electricity demand, but to realize this potential, the sector needs predictable and stable policy environments across jurisdictions.” 

— Vittoria Bellissimo, President and CEO, Canadian Renewable Energy Association

“The role of Indigenous Peoples in energy planning cannot be ignored. Connecting more clean power to the grid will require Indigenous partnerships across the country. Already, Indigenous Peoples are the biggest owners of electricity assets outside of Crown corporations and utilities in Canada, and building more clean power will require equity and co-ownership opportunities that recognizes the unique role Indigenous Peoples play in regional electricity planning.”

— Kwatuuma Cole Sayers, Executive Director, Indigenous Power Coalition, and Member, Canadian Climate Institute Mitigation Expert Panel

KEY FACTS

  • Since 2009, solar costs have fallen 84 per cent and onshore wind costs have dropped 56 per cent, while battery storage costs fell 27 per cent in the last year alone.
  • Failing to build enough clean power can carry a steep price tag. A recent report from Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors found Canada could miss out on $110 to $220 billion in potential capital investment due to insufficient clean electricity supply.
  • Indigenous peoples hold equity in nearly 550 projects and roughly $260 billion in electricity infrastructure. According to the First Nations Major Projects Coalition, Indigenous ownership could further unlock $12 billion in generation and $5 billion in transmission equity. 

RESOURCES

CONTACTS

Claudine Brulé (Eastern Time)
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

Krystal Northey (Mountain Time)
Lead, Public Affairs
Canadian Climate Institute
(226) 212-9883

About the Canadian Climate Institute 

The Canadian Climate Institute is Canada’s leading climate change policy research organization. The Institute produces rigorous analysis, economic modelling, and in-depth research focused on incentivizing clean economic growth and low-carbon competitiveness, reducing emissions and accelerating Canada’s net zero energy transition, and making our economy and infrastructure more resilient to a warming climate. climateinstitute.ca