A drought is a period of abnormally dry weather that lasts long enough to cause serious water shortages for natural ecosystems, agriculture, and people. Climate change is projected to increase the risk and severity of drought across much of central Canada (Bonsal et. al 2024). In 2025, drought conditions were felt nation-wide, fueling Canada’s second worst wildfire season (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2025). By September 2025, about 85% of the country was abnormally dry or in drought conditions, with parts of the Maritimes experiencing their driest summer on record.

Climate change is making droughts more frequent and severe

• Climate change has made droughts more frequent and severe in many regions around the world, and the trend is expected to continue to worsen (IPCC 2023, p. 67; Chiang et al. 2023).
• Rising temperatures strain water supplies by increasing both evaporation rates and water consumption by plants, resulting in drier soil conditions and water scarcity (Overpeck and Udall 2020).
• Climate change also alters the frequency, distribution, and predictability of rainfall (Tahroudi 2025). Precipitation is more likely to be concentrated in intense, infrequent downpours, separated by longer dry spells (Lesk & Mankin 2026).  
• Rising temperatures are shrinking snowpacks and glaciers, reducing freshwater availability in many regions, including western Canada (Bonsal et. al 2020; Caretta et.al 2022).
• Climate change is also causing droughts to develop faster, making “flash droughts” more common (Yuan et al. 2023). This new reality makes forecasting and monitoring droughts more difficult.
• Over the 21^st century, the total land area subject to drought is expected to increase, with over 40 per cent of global land area expected to experience year-round drying by the end of the century, even under low-warming scenarios (IPCC 2023, p. 1119; Cook et al. 2020).

Climate change worsens conditions in Canadian drought-prone regions and beyond

• The southern Prairies and the interior of British Columbia are especially susceptible to drought and have seen several prolonged droughts in the past century. With climate change, areas that are currently dry are projected to become even drier (Bonsal et. al 2024).
• Drought-affected areas are projected to steadily increase in Canada throughout this century, including under moderate emissions scenarios (Soltani et. al 2024). The Prairie provinces, southern Northwest Territories, portions of interior British Columbia, and most of Ontario are likely to face the greatest increases in frequency and severity of drought (Bonsal et. al 2024).
• Even under the lowest emission scenario, the current 1-in-10-year drought in the southern Prairies is projected to increase to around 2–3 occurrences every 10 years (Bonsal et. al 2024).
• ‘Snow drought’ in key areas of western and southern Canada can have broad ripple effects. Significant snow losses in the North American Cordillera—the headwaters of major western Canadian rivers—put water supplies at risk for 86% of Canadians living in the affected basins (Sarpong et. al 2026).

Explore the climate costs tracker to visualize climate-fuelled weather events in Canada.

Droughts are costly disasters

• Droughts were an important factor in the recent dramatic increase in crop insurance payments in Canada, which surged from $890 million in 2018 to $4.9 billion in 2022 (Arnason 2024). 
• Drought insurance payouts to Alberta’s farmers and agri-businesses reached a record $326.5 million in 2023, more than tripling the payouts from the 2021 drought, according to the Agriculture Financial Services Corporation (Smith 2024).
• Due to severe drought, crop production in Saskatchewan fell by a record 47 per cent in 2021. That year, Saskatchewan was the only province to see its economy contract (-0.3 per cent). Statistics Canada reported that while “activity was up in most sectors of the economy, those gains were entirely negated by the worst drought in nearly two decades” (Statistics Canada 2022).
• In the Abitibi region of Québec, hay producers received a record $6.8 million in compensation for the 2023 drought, more than triple the annual average (Cameron 2024).
• Droughts limit hydroelectricity generation, cutting revenue for utilities, and making electricity more expensive for consumers (CBC News 2023).
• In January 2024, drought conditions in both B.C. and Manitoba meant lower reservoir levels at hydroelectric facilities, forcing the two provinces to import power from other jurisdictions (Canadian Press 2024). In 2025, severe drought drove Manitoba Hydro’s operating costs $684 million over budget (Macintosh 2025).
• Persistently low reservoir levels forced Hydro-Québec to cut its exports by more than half between 2022 and 2024. Together with less favourable market conditions, this drove an $866 million drop in revenue for the utility in 2024 alone (Hydro-Québec 2025).

Droughts threaten the health of Canadians

• Droughts can degrade drinking water quality and increase the risk of water-borne diseases, as sluggish flows and more evaporation concentrate contaminants in water bodies and promote toxic algal blooms (Yusa et al. 2015).
• Droughts can contribute to respiratory issues (Yusa et al. 2015) due to windblown dust from dried-out soils, exacerbating conditions such as asthma. 
• Droughts can increase the likelihood of infection among recreational water users at times when warm weather drives engagement in water activities (Yusa et al. 2015).
• Drought is associated with mental health issues, such as anxiety, depression, and increased risk of suicide, especially for farmers, who can experience financial and emotional stress during droughts (Ellis and Albrecht 2017).

Droughts worsen the risk of floods, wildfires and ecosystem damage

• Droughts fuel wildfires by drying out vegetation and soils, creating highly flammable conditions. Prolonged water stress weakens trees and plants, causing them to shed leaves and needles, lose moisture, and eventually die, adding to the amount of available fuel. At the same time, hot, dry conditions lower humidity and increase the likelihood that sparks from lightning, equipment, or human activity will ignite a fire. Once fires start, low moisture allows them to spread quickly and burn more intensely, increasing the risk to communities, ecosystems, and critical infrastructure. 
• Widespread drought conditions were a major driver of the 2025 wildfire season, which saw significant blazes in almost every province and territory and was Canada’s second-worst on record (Environment and Climate Change Canada 2025). A study in Manitoba found that low rainfall and snowpack left soil among the driest on record in early 2025, fueling the province’s rapidly spreading wildfires (Amiri et al. 2025). 
• In 2023, prolonged multi-year drought in western Canada, and a rapidly occurring ‘flash drought’ in Ontario and Quebec were key drivers of the worst wildfire season in Canadian history (Jain et. al 2024). 
• Drought conditions drive overnight burning, a key factor that helps small fires grow into large, active blazes (Luo et. al 2024). 
• Drought can increase the risk of flooding. Dry conditions hurt soil quality and kill off vegetation, making soil less able to absorb water. If heavy rainfall follows a drought, water can run off more easily, which increases the risk of flooding (Bonsal et al. 2019).  
• Droughts in northwest British Columbia, particularly during July and August when salmon are migrating to their upstream spawning areas, can cause severe and lasting damage to their populations, to ecosystems, and to the Indigenous Peoples that rely on them (Curran and Marsden 2021).

Governments can do a lot to protect Canadians from the worsening risk of droughts

Scientists have warned that the consequences of climate change will only get worse as the concentration of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere increases (IPCC 2022). Governments around the world, including Canada’s, must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming.

Because the impacts of climate change are already here and getting worse, communities and governments must work together to adapt and prepare for the increased risk of drought today. Specific measures governments can take include:

• Plan proactively: All orders of government can prepare for shortages by developing and implementing proactive drought response plans, such as Alberta’s comprehensive Drought Response Plan. These plans include clear strategies for managing water resources, coordinating across sectors, and protecting vulnerable communities (Government of Alberta 2024).
• Conserve water: Water conservation can reduce the adverse impacts of droughts when supplies are low. In the short term, this can include voluntary or mandatory restrictions on water use during dry periods. Over the longer term, governments can implement policies to prevent waste, such as universal water metering and conservation-oriented pricing, reducing losses from leaks in aging distribution systems, and efficiency standards for fixtures and appliances. 
• Protect water quality:  Increased water quality monitoring during droughts helps safeguard drinking water and protect recreational water users from adverse health effects, such as parasites and toxins (Yusa et al. 2015).
• Strengthen agricultural resilience: Governments can increase drought resilience by improving early warning systems, such as the Canadian Drought Monitor (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada 2024), supporting investment in irrigation and water storage, and incentivizing the use of drought-tolerant crop varieties. 
• Support farming communities: Strong crop insurance, disaster relief programs, and mental health supports are vital for farming families and agricultural communities coping with financial and emotional stress during droughts (Bonsal et al. 2011; Hart et al. 2011). 
• Invest in climate research and drought management for hydroelectricity: The sector can better anticipate and manage drought by investing in climate modeling and real-time monitoring (Ouranos n.d.). BC Hydro has funded research and development to improve its forecasting and hydroclimate monitoring capabilities (BC Hydro 2022). They pair these tools with multi-year reservoir storage and an integrated provincial grid to proactively conserve water and adapt operations (Stocks 2025).

Resources

• Canadian Drought Monitor (Agriculture and Agri Food Canada 2024)
• Reporting Extreme Weather and Climate Change: A Guide for Journalists (World Weather Attribution 2024) 

Experts available for comment and background information on this topic:

• Ryan Ness is Director of Adaptation Research at the Canadian Climate Institute and the lead researcher on the Institute’s Costs of Climate Change series (Eastern Time, English and French).
• Zach Carriere is Research Associate in Adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute (Eastern Time, English).

For more information or to interview an expert, please contact: 

Claudine Brulé
Lead, Communications and External Affairs
cbrule@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883  (Eastern Time, French & English)

Krystal Northey 
Lead, Public Affairs 
knorthey@climateinstitute.ca
(226) 212-9883 (Mountain Time, English)